Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, January 22, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Heat	49%	117	110	105.8	104	107.5
	20	Blazers	51%	118	127	123.3	103	99.7

Prediction updated: Jan 23, 2026 03:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+18

-15

107

POR

+20

-18

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.05 52.4%

POR

1.21 60.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	37.1	32	62%	10	2	3	1	3	0	3	7	5-5	100%	12-17	71%	1-7	14%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.2	14	78%	6	3	3	0	3	2	1	5	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	1-3	33%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	28.9	6	60%	3	6	0	0	1	1	2	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	28.0	18	53%	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	4-5	80%	7-8	88%	0-7	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	11.1	3	75%	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.8	4	25%	5	3	0	0	2	2	2	3	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	24.6	17	77%	4	3	1	0	1	0	2	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	3-6	50%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	20.5	4	22%	4	2	2	2	2	0	3	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-4	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.0	5	28%	5	3	0	0	1	1	1	4	0-2	0%	1-1	100%	1-7	14%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	15.9	7	58%	3	1	2	0	1	4	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Contusion
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	52%	40	27	12	4	15	10	14	26	15-19	79%	34-49	69%	9-45	20%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	37.1	32	62%	10	2	3	1	3	0	3	7	5-5	100%	12-17	71%	1-7	14%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.2	14	78%	6	3	3	0	3	2	1	5	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	1-3	33%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	28.9	6	60%	3	6	0	0	1	1	2	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	28.0	18	53%	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	4-5	80%	7-8	88%	0-7	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	11.1	3	75%	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.8	4	25%	5	3	0	0	2	2	2	3	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	24.6	17	77%	4	3	1	0	1	0	2	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	3-6	50%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	20.5	4	22%	4	2	2	2	2	0	3	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-4	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.0	5	28%	5	3	0	0	1	1	1	4	0-2	0%	1-1	100%	1-7	14%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	15.9	7	58%	3	1	2	0	1	4	0	3	1-2	50%	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Contusion
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	110	52%	40	27	12	4	15	10	14	26	15-19	79%	34-49	69%	9-45	20%

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20 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Toumani Camara #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 26	35.4	16	80%	8	6	1	0	2	3	2	6	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	3-6	50%
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 23	34.0	27	64%	7	3	4	0	6	3	0	7	0-0	-	6-12	50%	5-9	56%
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	26.9	7	88%	8	2	0	1	1	1	2	6	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Jrue Holiday #5 · PG · 6'4" 220 · 36	18.9	15	58%	2	7	0	0	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	3-6	50%	3-7	43%
Deni Avdija #8 · SF · 6'8" 228 · 25	17.8	20	71%	7	4	0	0	3	3	3	4	6-6	100%	4-6	67%	2-5	40%

Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	33.5	20	53%	4	4	0	0	2	0	1	3	0-0	-	4-7	57%	4-12	33%
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	23.0	12	50%	0	0	2	1	3	2	0	0	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	1-5	20%
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	19.3	4	67%	10	0	1	3	0	1	2	8	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	17.8	6	60%	3	0	0	0	1	1	2	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	13.4	0	0%	1	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Duop Reath #26 · C · 6'9" 245 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Lumbar; Strain
Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Tear
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendinopathy
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 27	INACTIVE
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Fracture
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	61%	50	26	10	5	18	17	14	36	11-13	85%	28-46	61%	20-50	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	POR
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	POR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.05 52.4%

POR

1.21 60.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

90%

POR

72%

Midrange

MIA

40%

POR

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

13.5

20%

30%

POR

30.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

MIA

79%

POR

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	32	62%	16.0 / 26
N. Powell	18	53%	9.0 / 17
S. Fontecchio	17	77%	8.5 / 11
A. Wiggins	14	78%	7.0 / 9
M. Gardner	7	58%	3.5 / 6
P. Larsson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
N. Jović	5	28%	2.5 / 9
J. Jaquez	4	25%	2.0 / 8
D. Smith	4	22%	2.0 / 9
K. Jakučionis	3	75%	1.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Sharpe	27	64%	13.5 / 21
D. Avdija	20	71%	10.0 / 14
C. Love	20	53%	10.0 / 19
T. Camara	16	80%	8.0 / 10
J. Holiday	15	58%	7.5 / 13
J. Grant	12	50%	6.0 / 12
D. Clingan	7	88%	3.5 / 4
S. Cissoko	6	60%	3.0 / 5
R. Williams	4	67%	2.0 / 3
R. Rupert	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 21 113.1	MIA 105.8 POR 123.3 +17.5
Pace	1 104.3 8 101.6	MIA 107.5 +7.8 POR 99.7
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 16 14.2	MIA 13.4 −1.0 POR 14.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 22 53.3%	MIA 50.5% POR 60.4% +9.9%
TO %	5 12.6% 30 16.1%	MIA 12.8% −3.6% POR 16.4%
ORB %	17 25.4% 2 31.3%	MIA 28.0% POR 35.0% +7.0%
FTrt	14 26.8 9 28.0	MIA 20.2 +6.7 POR 13.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 18 61.6%	MIA 62.8% +8.6% POR 54.2%
STL %	17 8.3% 20 8.1%	MIA 11.5% +1.8% POR 9.7%
BLK %	28 7.9% 8 10.1%	MIA 8.7% POR 10.2% +1.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 23 55.6%	MIA 52.4% POR 60.5% +8.1%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 19 63.9%	MIA 89.7% +17.7% POR 72.0%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 29 37.4%	MIA 40.0% POR 47.6% +7.6%
3P %	11 36.1% 28 34.2%	MIA 20.0% POR 40.0% +20.0%
FT %	11 79.2% 24 76.5%	MIA 78.9% POR 84.6% +5.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 5 35.6%	MIA 30.9% +4.8% POR 26.0%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 2 17.6%	MIA 21.3% −0.6% POR 21.9%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 3 46.8%	MIA 47.9% POR 52.1% +4.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.26 and 2.26.

Game Totals	MIA	POR
Possessions	104	103
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	110	127
Rebounds	40	50
Assists	27	26
Steals	12	10
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	18 (2)
Fouls	10	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (4)	14 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (2)	36 (1)
Field Goals	43-94	48-96
At-the-Rim FG	26-29	18-25
Midrange FG	8-20	10-21
2-Point FG	34-49	28-46
3-Point FG	9-45	20-50
Free Throws	15-19	11-13
Fast Break Pts	24	12
2nd Chance Pts	22	18
Points in Paint	60	52
Pts off Turnovers	30	20
Bench Points	37	42
Biggest Lead	5	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg