Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, January 23, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	28	Nuggets	34%	109	102	106.3	96	92.6
	21	Bucks	66%	114	100	105.3	95	98.6

Prediction updated: Jan 24, 2026 02:33 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+12

-7

101

MIL

+15

-10

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.02 51.0%

MIL

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

28 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	38.3	5	42%	5	2	2	1	0	4	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	37.0	11	42%	12	2	0	2	2	5	4	8	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-4	25%
Jalen Pickett #24 · PG · 6'2" 202 · 26	34.0	13	43%	3	7	1	0	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	2-7	29%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	26.7	20	63%	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	5	7-8	88%	5-7	71%	1-6	17%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	16.1	13	65%	6	3	2	0	1	2	0	6	4-5	80%	3-7	43%	1-2	50%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.9	15	63%	3	3	2	0	2	1	1	2	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	25.8	17	53%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	4-4	100%	2-5	40%	3-9	33%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	15.8	3	50%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	11.7	0	0%	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	8.9	5	63%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Inflammation/Left Hip Inflammation
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Strain/Left Ankle Sprain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	51%	47	27	8	3	7	19	6	41	20-23	87%	23-46	50%	12-41	29%

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28 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	38.3	5	42%	5	2	2	1	0	4	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	37.0	11	42%	12	2	0	2	2	5	4	8	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	1-4	25%
Jalen Pickett #24 · PG · 6'2" 202 · 26	34.0	13	43%	3	7	1	0	1	2	0	3	1-2	50%	3-7	43%	2-7	29%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	26.7	20	63%	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	5	7-8	88%	5-7	71%	1-6	17%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	16.1	13	65%	6	3	2	0	1	2	0	6	4-5	80%	3-7	43%	1-2	50%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 29	25.9	15	63%	3	3	2	0	2	1	1	2	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	25.8	17	53%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	4-4	100%	2-5	40%	3-9	33%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 23	15.8	3	50%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-3	33%
Hunter Tyson #5 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 26	11.7	0	0%	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	8.9	5	63%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Inflammation/Left Hip Inflammation
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Bruise
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Strain/Left Ankle Sprain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	51%	47	27	8	3	7	19	6	41	20-23	87%	23-46	50%	12-41	29%

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21 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ryan Rollins #13 · PG · 6'3" 180 · 24	35.2	21	53%	4	1	3	0	1	1	2	2	1-1	100%	4-10	40%	4-10	40%
Kyle Kuzma #18 · SF · 6'8" 221 · 31	35.1	11	42%	10	6	0	0	1	0	1	9	2-6	33%	3-7	43%	1-3	33%
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	32.2	22	69%	13	7	0	0	4	1	1	12	14-16	88%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	29.1	17	77%	7	2	1	6	1	4	2	5	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	1-4	25%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 31	28.0	4	33%	3	2	1	0	1	3	3	0	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	1-4	25%

Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	26.4	11	46%	9	0	0	0	0	3	0	9	0-0	-	1-5	20%	3-7	43%
Amir Coffey #17 · SG · 6'7" 210 · 29	21.4	5	36%	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-5	20%
Cole Anthony #50 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 26	16.4	9	56%	2	5	1	1	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-3	33%
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	12.3	0	0%	2	0	1	1	1	0	2	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	4.0	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Neck; Surgery
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · SG · 6'5" 203 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Oblique Muscle; Strain
AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Illness
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	100	51%	51	24	7	8	10	19	11	40	20-27	74%	22-46	48%	12-39	31%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MIL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.02 51.0%

MIL

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

65%

MIL

76%

Midrange

DEN

20%

MIL

31%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

29%

44%

MIL

18.0

31%

46%

Free Throws

DEN

87%

MIL

74%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Strawther	20	63%	10.0 / 16
T. Hardaway	17	53%	8.5 / 16
B. Brown	15	63%	7.5 / 12
J. Pickett	13	43%	6.5 / 15
A. Gordon	13	65%	6.5 / 10
Z. Nnaji	11	42%	5.5 / 13
S. Jones	5	42%	2.5 / 6
C. Jones	5	63%	2.5 / 4
D. Holmes	3	50%	1.5 / 3
H. Tyson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Antetokounmpo	22	69%	11.0 / 16
R. Rollins	21	53%	10.5 / 20
M. Turner	17	77%	8.5 / 11
K. Kuzma	11	42%	5.5 / 13
B. Portis	11	46%	5.5 / 12
C. Anthony	9	56%	4.5 / 8
A. Coffey	5	36%	2.5 / 7
G. Harris	4	33%	2.0 / 6
P. Nance	0	-	0.0 / 1
A. Jackson	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 24 112.3	DEN 106.3 +1.0 MIL 105.3
Pace	19 99.4 24 98.1	DEN 92.6 MIL 98.6 +6.1
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 7 14.8	DEN 15.6 MIL 14.6 −1.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 3 56.5%	DEN 47.1% MIL 47.1%
TO %	3 12.1% 24 14.7%	DEN 7.6% −2.6% MIL 10.2%
ORB %	24 23.6% 30 21.1%	DEN 13.0% MIL 21.2% +8.2%
FTrt	4 29.4 29 22.3	DEN 26.4 MIL 31.8 +5.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 17 63.3%	DEN 77.1% +6.5% MIL 70.6%
STL %	30 6.8% 23 7.5%	DEN 8.3% +0.9% MIL 7.4%
BLK %	29 7.6% 25 8.2%	DEN 6.5% MIL 17.4% +10.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 9 57.5%	DEN 51.0% +0.5% MIL 50.5%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 4 67.1%	DEN 64.5% MIL 76.5% +12.0%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 20 42.6%	DEN 20.0% MIL 31.0% +11.0%
3P %	1 39.6% 2 38.7%	DEN 29.3% MIL 30.8% +1.5%
FT %	5 80.8% 30 73.0%	DEN 87.0% +12.9% MIL 74.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 27 28.2%	DEN 35.6% +15.6% MIL 20.0%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 16 26.1%	DEN 17.2% −16.9% MIL 34.1%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 5 45.7%	DEN 47.1% +1.2% MIL 45.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	MIL
Possessions	96	95
Possession Minutes	24.9	23.1
Points	102	100
Rebounds	47	51
Assists	27	24
Steals	8	7
Blocks	3	8
Turnovers (Team)	7 (1)	10 (1)
Fouls	19	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (6)	11 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (0)	40 (2)
Field Goals	35-87	34-85
At-the-Rim FG	20-31	13-17
Midrange FG	3-15	9-29
2-Point FG	23-46	22-46
3-Point FG	12-41	12-39
Free Throws	20-23	20-27
Fast Break Pts	21	8
2nd Chance Pts	6	9
Points in Paint	46	36
Pts off Turnovers	16	11
Bench Points	40	25
Biggest Lead	23	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg