Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, January 24, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	16	Heat	75%	125	147	132.4	111	110.8
	29	Jazz	25%	116	116	104.5	111	111.2

Prediction updated: Jan 25, 2026 02:26 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+31

-13

129

UTA

+10

-14

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.14 57.0%

UTA

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	31.0	26	59%	15	2	0	1	3	1	7	8	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	4-10	40%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	26.6	17	65%	6	6	1	0	1	2	4	2	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	25.3	20	83%	2	3	0	1	2	2	1	1	3-3	100%	4-5	80%	3-6	50%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	24.9	13	41%	4	6	0	0	0	1	0	4	7-10	70%	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	16.9	12	86%	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	27.6	9	45%	7	5	1	0	3	2	2	5	1-1	100%	4-10	40%	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	25.6	6	27%	10	5	5	1	0	4	4	6	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	25.0	23	72%	3	1	1	1	3	0	2	1	8-11	73%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	23.8	14	58%	6	2	2	0	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-9	44%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	10.1	2	20%	6	4	0	2	0	4	3	3	0-2	0%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	3.1	5	125%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Sprain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	147	57%	64	35	10	6	13	21	26	38	34-42	81%	28-61	46%	19-47	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	31.0	26	59%	15	2	0	1	3	1	7	8	6-6	100%	4-9	44%	4-10	40%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	26.6	17	65%	6	6	1	0	1	2	4	2	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	25.3	20	83%	2	3	0	1	2	2	1	1	3-3	100%	4-5	80%	3-6	50%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	24.9	13	41%	4	6	0	0	0	1	0	4	7-10	70%	3-7	43%	0-4	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	16.9	12	86%	5	1	0	0	0	1	1	4	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	27.6	9	45%	7	5	1	0	3	2	2	5	1-1	100%	4-10	40%	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	25.6	6	27%	10	5	5	1	0	4	4	6	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	25.0	23	72%	3	1	1	1	3	0	2	1	8-11	73%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	23.8	14	58%	6	2	2	0	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-9	44%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	10.1	2	20%	6	4	0	2	0	4	3	3	0-2	0%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	3.1	5	125%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Sprain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	147	57%	64	35	10	6	13	21	26	38	34-42	81%	28-61	46%	19-47	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

29 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	36.2	19	43%	2	5	2	0	2	3	0	2	7-8	88%	6-11	55%	0-8	0%
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 31	31.4	17	61%	10	12	1	1	3	5	2	8	0-2	0%	7-12	58%	1-1	100%
Cody Williams #5 · PF · 6'8" 190 · 21	29.9	5	42%	1	1	1	3	1	2	0	1	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-1	0%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 19	28.2	12	40%	2	2	1	2	0	5	1	1	0-0	-	6-10	60%	0-5	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 29	17.2	8	80%	3	1	1	0	2	1	1	2	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-0	-

Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	27.9	16	62%	6	9	0	1	2	3	2	4	4-6	67%	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 22	23.4	23	68%	4	1	0	0	2	2	0	4	5-6	83%	3-8	38%	4-7	57%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	15.7	9	75%	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	3	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-1	100%
Walter Clayton Jr. #13 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	15.1	5	83%	1	2	1	2	1	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Kyle Anderson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	15.1	2	50%	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 37	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · C · 6'8" 255 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
John Tonje #17 · SG · 6'4" 218 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury recovery
Georges Niang #31 · PF · 6'6" 230 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Fourth metatarsal stress reaction
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	55%	34	36	9	10	14	26	7	27	21-28	75%	37-67	55%	7-25	28%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.14 57.0%

UTA

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

51%

UTA

69%

Midrange

MIA

38%

UTA

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

28.5

40%

61%

UTA

10.5

28%

42%

Free Throws

MIA

81%

UTA

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	26	59%	13.0 / 22
N. Jović	23	72%	11.5 / 16
P. Larsson	20	83%	10.0 / 12
A. Wiggins	17	65%	8.5 / 13
S. Fontecchio	14	58%	7.0 / 12
N. Powell	13	41%	6.5 / 16
K. Jakučionis	12	86%	6.0 / 7
J. Jaquez	9	45%	4.5 / 10
D. Smith	6	27%	3.0 / 11
K. Johnson	5	125%	2.5 / 2
M. Gardner	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Sensabaugh	23	68%	11.5 / 17
K. George	19	43%	9.5 / 22
J. Nurkić	17	61%	8.5 / 14
I. Collier	16	62%	8.0 / 13
A. Bailey	12	40%	6.0 / 15
K. Filipowski	9	75%	4.5 / 6
S. Mykhailiuk	8	80%	4.0 / 5
C. Williams	5	42%	2.5 / 6
W. Clayton	5	83%	2.5 / 3
K. Anderson	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 22 112.9	MIA 132.4 +27.9 UTA 104.5
Pace	1 104.3 2 103.4	MIA 110.8 UTA 111.2 +0.4
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 27 13.8	MIA 13.0 UTA 13.0 −0.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 20 53.6%	MIA 52.3% +0.7% UTA 51.6%
TO %	5 12.6% 23 14.4%	MIA 10.0% −1.8% UTA 11.8%
ORB %	17 25.4% 12 26.2%	MIA 49.1% +33.5% UTA 15.6%
FTrt	14 26.8 10 27.7	MIA 38.9 +8.5 UTA 30.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 2 69.6%	MIA 74.5% UTA 81.8% +7.3%
STL %	17 8.3% 14 8.5%	MIA 9.0% +0.9% UTA 8.1%
BLK %	28 7.9% 30 7.5%	MIA 9.0% UTA 16.4% +7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 18 56.4%	MIA 57.0% +2.3% UTA 54.7%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 17 64.5%	MIA 51.4% UTA 68.8% +17.4%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 8 44.4%	MIA 37.5% UTA 42.9% +5.4%
3P %	11 36.1% 25 34.5%	MIA 40.4% +12.4% UTA 28.0%
FT %	11 79.2% 13 78.6%	MIA 81.0% +6.0% UTA 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 17 31.3%	MIA 34.3% UTA 34.8% +0.5%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 23 28.4%	MIA 22.2% −15.8% UTA 38.0%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 21 40.3%	MIA 43.5% +16.3% UTA 27.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	UTA
Possessions	111	111
Possession Minutes	24.0	24.0
Points	147	116
Rebounds	64	34
Assists	35	36
Steals	10	9
Blocks	6	10
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	21	26
Off. Rebounds (Team)	26 (5)	7 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (2)	27 (5)
Field Goals	47-108	44-92
At-the-Rim FG	19-37	22-32
Midrange FG	9-24	15-35
2-Point FG	28-61	37-67
3-Point FG	19-47	7-25
Free Throws	34-42	21-28
Fast Break Pts	26	23
2nd Chance Pts	22	9
Points in Paint	54	70
Pts off Turnovers	20	11
Bench Points	59	55
Biggest Lead	34	7

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg