Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Nuggets	61%	122	118	109.3	108	108.1
	22	Grizzlies	39%	118	125	115.7	108	107.9

Prediction updated: Mar 19, 2026 12:17 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+12

-19

101

MEM

+16

-10

114

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 59.0%

MEM

1.10 54.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	41.1	19	63%	8	12	0	0	1	3	0	8	5-5	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	40.6	26	65%	7	5	4	0	1	5	2	5	2-2	100%	9-14	64%	2-5	40%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	38.6	29	66%	14	9	1	3	10	4	2	12	5-8	63%	9-15	60%	2-4	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	33.5	20	71%	6	3	1	0	2	3	1	5	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	5-6	83%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	26.8	6	60%	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	27.8	11	46%	2	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	2-11	18%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	20.2	1	10%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	5.8	4	67%	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	5.5	2	50%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	59%	46	34	6	5	19	24	7	39	17-22	77%	31-54	57%	13-36	36%

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10 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	41.1	19	63%	8	12	0	0	1	3	0	8	5-5	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	40.6	26	65%	7	5	4	0	1	5	2	5	2-2	100%	9-14	64%	2-5	40%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	38.6	29	66%	14	9	1	3	10	4	2	12	5-8	63%	9-15	60%	2-4	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	33.5	20	71%	6	3	1	0	2	3	1	5	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	5-6	83%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	26.8	6	60%	5	0	0	1	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	27.8	11	46%	2	2	0	0	1	2	1	1	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	2-11	18%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	20.2	1	10%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	5.8	4	67%	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	5.5	2	50%	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	59%	46	34	6	5	19	24	7	39	17-22	77%	31-54	57%	13-36	36%

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22 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	25.9	16	44%	6	0	0	2	1	1	0	6	3-6	50%	5-11	45%	1-4	25%
Ty Jerome #2 · PG · 6'5" 195 · 29	24.9	21	70%	9	9	0	1	2	1	1	8	0-0	-	3-7	43%	5-8	63%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 23	24.6	11	69%	5	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	3-4	75%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 23	24.6	15	50%	7	1	1	0	1	3	2	5	7-7	100%	4-8	50%	0-4	0%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · C · 6'7" 230 · 24	23.2	19	79%	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	1	4-6	67%	3-4	75%	3-5	60%

Taylor Hendricks #22 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	24.2	13	36%	2	1	6	3	2	3	2	0	0-0	-	5-8	63%	1-10	10%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	20.1	8	80%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	2-5	40%
Walter Clayton Jr. #4 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	19.7	4	29%	2	4	0	0	1	2	0	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	19.7	8	67%	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Tyler Burton #5 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	13.3	5	50%	3	0	2	1	0	2	0	3	3-3	100%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
DeJon Jarreau #77 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 28	10.4	4	100%	4	4	1	1	0	1	2	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Taj Gibson #67 · C · 6'9" 232 · 41	9.4	1	50%	4	1	0	0	0	1	2	2	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Rayan Rupert #32 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery Recovery
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; UCL Sprain
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	125	55%	48	22	12	9	10	17	12	36	25-32	78%	26-49	53%	16-49	33%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	MEM

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.18 59.0%

MEM

1.10 54.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

66%

MEM

63%

Midrange

DEN

42%

MEM

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

19.5

36%

54%

MEM

24.0

33%

49%

Free Throws

DEN

77%

MEM

78%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	29	66%	14.5 / 22
C. Braun	26	65%	13.0 / 20
C. Johnson	20	71%	10.0 / 14
J. Murray	19	63%	9.5 / 15
T. Hardaway	11	46%	5.5 / 12
S. Jones	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Valančiūnas	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Strawther	2	50%	1.0 / 2
B. Brown	1	10%	0.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Jerome	21	70%	10.5 / 15
O. Prosper	19	79%	9.5 / 12
G. Jackson	16	44%	8.0 / 18
C. Coward	15	50%	7.5 / 15
T. Hendricks	13	36%	6.5 / 18
J. Wells	11	69%	5.5 / 8
C. Spencer	8	80%	4.0 / 5
J. Small	8	67%	4.0 / 6
T. Burton	5	50%	2.5 / 5
W. Clayton	4	29%	2.0 / 7
D. Jarreau	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Gibson	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 23 112.4	DEN 109.3 MEM 115.7 +6.5
Pace	19 99.4 7 101.8	DEN 108.1 +0.2 MEM 107.9
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 26 13.8	DEN 13.3 −0.0 MEM 13.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 24 53.3%	DEN 56.1% +5.1% MEM 51.0%
TO %	3 12.1% 22 14.3%	DEN 16.0% MEM 8.2% −7.8%
ORB %	24 23.6% 19 24.7%	DEN 16.3% MEM 23.5% +7.2%
FTrt	4 29.4 21 25.1	DEN 24.4 MEM 32.7 +8.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 6 67.4%	DEN 77.3% +24.9% MEM 52.4%
STL %	30 6.8% 11 8.7%	DEN 5.6% MEM 11.1% +5.5%
BLK %	29 7.6% 14 9.1%	DEN 10.2% MEM 16.7% +6.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 22 55.8%	DEN 59.0% +4.2% MEM 54.8%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 26 62.8%	DEN 65.7% +3.2% MEM 62.5%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 11 44.2%	DEN 42.1% MEM 44.0% +1.9%
3P %	1 39.6% 22 35.3%	DEN 36.1% +3.4% MEM 32.7%
FT %	5 80.8% 9 79.3%	DEN 77.3% MEM 78.1% +0.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 26 28.6%	DEN 38.9% +14.4% MEM 24.5%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 19 27.8%	DEN 21.1% −4.4% MEM 25.5%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 10 43.6%	DEN 40.0% MEM 50.0% +10.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	MEM
Possessions	108	108
Possession Minutes	24.0	24.0
Points	118	125
Rebounds	46	48
Assists	34	22
Steals	6	12
Blocks	5	9
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	24	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (5)	12 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (2)	36 (0)
Field Goals	44-90	42-98
At-the-Rim FG	23-35	15-24
Midrange FG	8-19	11-25
2-Point FG	31-54	26-49
3-Point FG	13-36	16-49
Free Throws	17-22	25-32
Fast Break Pts	21	29
2nd Chance Pts	17	13
Points in Paint	58	46
Pts off Turnovers	10	27
Bench Points	18	43
Biggest Lead	3	11

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg