Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, January 25, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Heat	37%	110	111	108.8	102	103.5
	11	Suns	63%	115	102	100.0	102	100.5

Prediction updated: Jan 26, 2026 01:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+19

-10

111

PHX

+22

-10

114

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.00 50.0%

PHX

0.89 44.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.1	10	50%	7	2	0	0	3	2	1	6	2-3	67%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	32.4	22	55%	7	1	2	1	1	4	4	3	8-8	100%	4-10	40%	2-6	33%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	31.3	16	35%	10	1	1	0	2	1	2	8	4-4	100%	3-11	27%	2-10	20%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	23.5	10	42%	10	3	0	0	0	2	4	6	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-4	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	22.8	7	58%	6	3	2	1	0	3	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	36.0	20	83%	5	6	0	1	2	2	1	4	3-4	75%	7-8	88%	1-3	33%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	22.6	11	69%	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.6	12	50%	6	1	0	0	0	1	1	5	2-4	50%	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	15.3	1	25%	5	3	0	0	1	2	0	5	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.5	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Sprain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	50%	59	21	6	3	10	21	18	41	24-29	83%	30-58	52%	9-35	26%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.1	10	50%	7	2	0	0	3	2	1	6	2-3	67%	4-9	44%	0-0	-
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	32.4	22	55%	7	1	2	1	1	4	4	3	8-8	100%	4-10	40%	2-6	33%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	31.3	16	35%	10	1	1	0	2	1	2	8	4-4	100%	3-11	27%	2-10	20%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	23.5	10	42%	10	3	0	0	0	2	4	6	0-0	-	5-8	63%	0-4	0%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 20	22.8	7	58%	6	3	2	1	0	3	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	1-3	33%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	36.0	20	83%	5	6	0	1	2	2	1	4	3-4	75%	7-8	88%	1-3	33%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	22.6	11	69%	2	0	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	17.6	12	50%	6	1	0	0	0	1	1	5	2-4	50%	2-5	40%	2-5	40%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	15.3	1	25%	5	3	0	0	1	2	0	5	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.5	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Sprain
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Costochondral; Injury to the Ribs
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	50%	59	21	6	3	10	21	18	41	24-29	83%	30-58	52%	9-35	26%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

11 Phoenix Suns

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dillon Brooks #3 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 30	36.4	26	54%	5	2	1	2	0	3	0	5	2-2	100%	9-18	50%	2-5	40%
Grayson Allen #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 30	34.7	18	43%	6	3	0	0	1	4	3	3	9-10	90%	3-7	43%	1-11	9%
Royce O'Neale #00 · PF · 6'6" 226 · 33	31.4	8	33%	5	5	2	0	2	3	0	5	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-7	0%
Collin Gillespie #12 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 27	30.7	11	46%	4	0	0	0	2	3	2	2	0-0	-	1-6	17%	3-6	50%
Mark Williams #15 · C · 7'1" 240 · 24	24.1	11	79%	8	1	0	1	1	4	2	6	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	0-0	-

Jordan Goodwin #23 · PG · 6'3" 215 · 27	21.9	2	14%	5	2	0	1	2	3	2	3	0-0	-	1-5	20%	0-2	0%
Oso Ighodaro #11 · PF · 6'11" 235 · 24	16.7	6	50%	7	1	0	2	0	2	3	4	0-2	0%	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Isaiah Livers #18 · PF · 6'6" 232 · 27	15.0	9	113%	5	0	2	1	0	0	1	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-1	100%
Jamaree Bouyea #17 · PG · 6'2" 180 · 27	13.0	5	42%	2	0	0	0	2	2	1	1	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Ryan Dunn #0 · SF · 6'7" 216 · 23	8.0	4	33%	5	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-0	-
Rasheer Fleming #20 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 22	2.7	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Khaman Maluach #10 · C · 7'1" 250 · 19	2.7	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Nigel Hayes-Davis #21 · SF · 6'7" 254 · 31	2.7	0	0%	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Nick Richards #2 · C · 6'11" 245 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Koby Brea #14 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jalen Green #4 · SG · 6'4" 186 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury management
Devin Booker #1 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	45%	56	14	6	7	10	24	21	35	21-26	81%	30-65	46%	7-35	20%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	PHX
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	PHX

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.00 50.0%

PHX

0.89 44.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

67%

PHX

43%

Midrange

MIA

41%

PHX

49%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

13.5

26%

39%

PHX

10.5

20%

30%

Free Throws

MIA

83%

PHX

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	22	55%	11.0 / 20
J. Jaquez	20	83%	10.0 / 12
N. Powell	16	35%	8.0 / 23
N. Jović	12	50%	6.0 / 12
D. Smith	11	69%	5.5 / 8
P. Larsson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
A. Wiggins	10	42%	5.0 / 12
K. Jakučionis	7	58%	3.5 / 6
M. Gardner	2	100%	1.0 / 1
S. Fontecchio	1	25%	0.5 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Suns

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Brooks	26	54%	13.0 / 24
G. Allen	18	43%	9.0 / 21
C. Gillespie	11	46%	5.5 / 12
M. Williams	11	79%	5.5 / 7
I. Livers	9	113%	4.5 / 4
R. O'Neale	8	33%	4.0 / 12
O. Ighodaro	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Bouyea	5	42%	2.5 / 6
R. Dunn	4	33%	2.0 / 6
J. Goodwin	2	14%	1.0 / 7
K. Maluach	2	100%	1.0 / 1
R. Fleming	0	-	0.0 / 1
N. Hayes-Davis	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 18 114.3	MIA 108.8 +8.8 PHX 100.0
Pace	1 104.3 23 98.2	MIA 103.5 +2.9 PHX 100.5
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 12 14.5	MIA 13.9 −0.4 PHX 14.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 19 53.7%	MIA 46.8% +6.3% PHX 40.5%
TO %	5 12.6% 16 13.7%	MIA 10.2% PHX 9.0% −1.2%
ORB %	17 25.4% 7 28.9%	MIA 34.0% +0.1% PHX 33.9%
FTrt	14 26.8 28 22.5	MIA 31.2 +5.2 PHX 26.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 23 60.1%	MIA 53.8% +16.0% PHX 37.8%
STL %	17 8.3% 2 9.7%	MIA 5.9% PHX 5.9%
BLK %	28 7.9% 21 8.4%	MIA 4.6% PHX 12.1% +7.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 27 55.3%	MIA 50.0% +5.3% PHX 44.7%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 18 64.0%	MIA 66.7% +23.4% PHX 43.3%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 17 43.3%	MIA 41.2% PHX 48.6% +7.4%
3P %	11 36.1% 12 36.1%	MIA 25.7% +5.7% PHX 20.0%
FT %	11 79.2% 15 78.1%	MIA 82.8% +2.0% PHX 80.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 29 26.3%	MIA 25.8% PHX 30.0% +4.2%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 22 28.4%	MIA 36.6% PHX 35.0% −1.6%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 7 45.3%	MIA 37.6% +2.6% PHX 35.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	PHX
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	23.7	24.4
Points	111	102
Rebounds	59	56
Assists	21	14
Steals	6	6
Blocks	3	7
Turnovers (Team)	10 (2)	10 (1)
Fouls	21	24
Off. Rebounds (Team)	18 (1)	21 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (3)	35 (2)
Field Goals	39-93	37-100
At-the-Rim FG	16-24	13-30
Midrange FG	14-34	17-35
2-Point FG	30-58	30-65
3-Point FG	9-35	7-35
Free Throws	24-29	21-26
Fast Break Pts	18	12
2nd Chance Pts	19	19
Points in Paint	54	50
Pts off Turnovers	15	15
Bench Points	46	28
Biggest Lead	18	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg