Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, January 26, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	21	Pacers	38%	114	116	106.4	109	112.3
	15	Hawks	62%	118	132	118.9	111	107.8

Prediction updated: Jan 26, 2026 06:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+12

-16

105

ATL

+14

-14

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.10 55.2%

ATL

1.20 60.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

21 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	35.2	26	52%	9	4	0	3	0	0	1	8	8-9	89%	6-12	50%	2-9	22%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	30.3	6	30%	5	13	1	1	4	1	1	4	0-1	0%	3-8	38%	0-2	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	29.6	12	67%	7	3	5	1	3	1	2	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	29.2	18	69%	2	4	0	0	3	1	0	2	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	3-6	50%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	18.4	6	50%	5	1	2	0	0	2	1	4	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%

Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	24.8	16	73%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	2-3	67%	4-7	57%	2-3	67%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	19.8	4	25%	5	1	1	1	2	2	0	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-4	0%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	18.3	16	67%	1	3	1	0	2	1	0	1	2-2	100%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	14.3	2	33%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	12.3	4	67%	5	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	3.5	3	150%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	1.4	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	55%	42	31	11	7	16	12	7	35	20-25	80%	33-58	57%	10-35	29%

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21 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	35.2	26	52%	9	4	0	3	0	0	1	8	8-9	89%	6-12	50%	2-9	22%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	30.3	6	30%	5	13	1	1	4	1	1	4	0-1	0%	3-8	38%	0-2	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	29.6	12	67%	7	3	5	1	3	1	2	5	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	29.2	18	69%	2	4	0	0	3	1	0	2	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	3-6	50%
Johnny Furphy #12 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	18.4	6	50%	5	1	2	0	0	2	1	4	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%

Bennedict Mathurin #00 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	24.8	16	73%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	2-3	67%	4-7	57%	2-3	67%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	19.8	4	25%	5	1	1	1	2	2	0	5	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-4	0%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	18.3	16	67%	1	3	1	0	2	1	0	1	2-2	100%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	14.3	2	33%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Isaiah Jackson #22 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	12.3	4	67%	5	0	0	1	0	2	2	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 28	3.5	3	150%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	1.4	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Stress Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	55%	42	31	11	7	16	12	7	35	20-25	80%	33-58	57%	10-35	29%

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15 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	34.6	22	69%	5	9	1	1	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	9-12	75%	1-3	33%
Jalen Johnson #1 · PF · 6'8" 219 · 24	34.5	15	36%	7	6	4	1	4	1	2	5	4-4	100%	4-12	33%	1-7	14%
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 27	34.1	21	66%	3	3	3	1	4	3	0	3	6-6	100%	0-3	0%	5-10	50%
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	31.3	12	46%	10	2	0	1	1	3	2	8	0-0	-	3-7	43%	2-6	33%
Corey Kispert #24 · SF · 6'6" 224 · 27	16.7	7	39%	0	3	0	0	1	1	0	0	3-3	100%	2-4	50%	0-4	0%

CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 34	27.8	23	77%	8	7	2	1	2	4	1	7	0-0	-	4-8	50%	5-7	71%
Luke Kennard #4 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	23.3	13	130%	2	3	0	1	1	1	0	2	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-3	100%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	16.7	12	100%	4	1	0	3	0	4	1	3	0-0	-	6-6	100%	0-0	-
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	13.5	7	88%	6	1	1	0	0	1	2	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 26	6.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	1.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Bone Contusion
Nikola Đurišić #22 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 22	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
RayJ Dennis #0 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Houstan #33 · SF · 6'8" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
N'Faly Dante #12 · C · 6'11" 230 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Torn ACL
Kristaps Porziņģis #8 · C · 7'2" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendinitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	60%	46	35	11	9	14	20	9	37	16-17	94%	31-55	56%	18-43	42%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	ATL
Clock	Team	Event	IND	ATL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.10 55.2%

ATL

1.20 60.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

65%

ATL

59%

Midrange

IND

43%

ATL

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

15.0

29%

43%

ATL

27.0

42%

63%

Free Throws

IND

80%

ATL

94%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	26	52%	13.0 / 25
A. Nesmith	18	69%	9.0 / 13
B. Mathurin	16	73%	8.0 / 11
T. McConnell	16	67%	8.0 / 12
J. Walker	12	67%	6.0 / 9
A. Nembhard	6	30%	3.0 / 10
J. Furphy	6	50%	3.0 / 6
M. Potter	4	25%	2.0 / 8
I. Jackson	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Huff	3	150%	1.5 / 1
Q. Jackson	3	75%	1.5 / 2
B. Sheppard	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. McCollum	23	77%	11.5 / 15
D. Daniels	22	69%	11.0 / 16
N. Alexander-Walker	21	66%	10.5 / 16
J. Johnson	15	36%	7.5 / 21
L. Kennard	13	130%	6.5 / 5
O. Okongwu	12	46%	6.0 / 13
C. Koloko	12	100%	6.0 / 6
C. Kispert	7	39%	3.5 / 9
M. Gueye	7	88%	3.5 / 4
V. Krejčí	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 14 115.1	IND 106.4 ATL 118.9 +12.5
Pace	10 101.4 4 102.5	IND 112.3 +4.4 ATL 107.8
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 29 13.5	IND 12.8 −0.5 ATL 13.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 10 55.4%	IND 51.6% ATL 59.2% +7.6%
TO %	14 13.6% 8 13.0%	IND 14.0% ATL 11.7% −2.3%
ORB %	29 21.7% 20 24.3%	IND 15.9% ATL 20.5% +4.6%
FTrt	20 25.2 27 23.4	IND 26.9 +9.6 ATL 17.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 4 69.1%	IND 72.1% +0.7% ATL 71.4%
STL %	28 7.2% 6 9.1%	IND 10.1% +0.2% ATL 9.9%
BLK %	26 8.1% 18 8.8%	IND 12.7% ATL 15.5% +2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 14 56.9%	IND 55.2% ATL 60.0% +4.8%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 21 63.3%	IND 64.9% +6.1% ATL 58.8%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 6 44.6%	IND 42.9% ATL 52.4% +9.5%
3P %	18 35.6% 5 37.1%	IND 28.6% ATL 41.9% +13.3%
FT %	17 77.6% 20 77.4%	IND 80.0% ATL 94.1% +14.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 13 32.1%	IND 39.8% +5.1% ATL 34.7%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 9 25.0%	IND 22.6% ATL 21.4% −1.2%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 11 42.9%	IND 37.6% ATL 43.9% +6.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	IND	ATL
Possessions	109	111
Possession Minutes	23.3	24.7
Points	116	132
Rebounds	42	46
Assists	31	35
Steals	11	11
Blocks	7	9
Turnovers (Team)	16 (1)	14 (0)
Fouls	12	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (5)	9 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (2)	37 (3)
Field Goals	43-93	49-98
At-the-Rim FG	24-37	20-34
Midrange FG	9-21	11-21
2-Point FG	33-58	31-55
3-Point FG	10-35	18-43
Free Throws	20-25	16-17
Fast Break Pts	21	15
2nd Chance Pts	12	7
Points in Paint	54	56
Pts off Turnovers	14	16
Bench Points	48	55
Biggest Lead	15	16

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg