Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, February 20, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Nuggets	48%	117	157	142.7	110	106.2
	17	Blazers	52%	118	103	91.2	113	117.2

Prediction updated: Feb 21, 2026 03:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-15

111

POR

+10

-18

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.41 70.7%

POR

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	29.4	32	80%	9	7	4	0	2	4	1	8	9-11	82%	7-11	64%	3-4	75%
Julian Strawther #3 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 24	29.3	19	59%	6	4	1	0	1	2	3	3	0-0	-	8-12	67%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	26.9	11	79%	8	7	0	0	2	3	2	6	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	26.7	15	63%	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	3	7-8	88%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	25.3	25	89%	6	6	1	0	2	2	0	6	7-7	100%	0-0	-	6-12	50%

Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	29.9	10	83%	10	2	0	1	1	2	3	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	19.6	6	75%	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	18.5	19	79%	2	3	2	0	2	0	0	2	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-7	57%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	11.7	6	38%	7	1	0	0	1	3	2	5	0-0	-	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	8.3	2	100%	2	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	7.4	3	50%	1	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	6.9	9	64%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	157	71%	60	41	12	3	15	22	13	47	26-32	81%	34-55	62%	21-41	51%

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9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	29.4	32	80%	9	7	4	0	2	4	1	8	9-11	82%	7-11	64%	3-4	75%
Julian Strawther #3 · PF · 6'6" 205 · 24	29.3	19	59%	6	4	1	0	1	2	3	3	0-0	-	8-12	67%	1-4	25%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	26.9	11	79%	8	7	0	0	2	3	2	6	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	26.7	15	63%	4	4	2	2	0	1	1	3	7-8	88%	1-3	33%	2-5	40%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	25.3	25	89%	6	6	1	0	2	2	0	6	7-7	100%	0-0	-	6-12	50%

Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	29.9	10	83%	10	2	0	1	1	2	3	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-2	100%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	19.6	6	75%	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-1	0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	18.5	19	79%	2	3	2	0	2	0	0	2	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-7	57%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	11.7	6	38%	7	1	0	0	1	3	2	5	0-0	-	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	8.3	2	100%	2	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	7.4	3	50%	1	4	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	6.9	9	64%	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	157	71%	60	41	12	3	15	22	13	47	26-32	81%	34-55	62%	21-41	51%

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17 Portland Trail Blazers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Deni Avdija #8 · PG · 6'8" 228 · 25	30.4	15	58%	8	13	0	0	6	4	0	8	5-7	71%	5-6	83%	0-4	0%
Toumani Camara #33 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 26	26.4	10	42%	1	1	1	0	3	1	0	1	0-2	0%	2-3	67%	2-8	25%
Jrue Holiday #5 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 36	25.3	19	79%	2	2	1	0	3	2	0	2	3-3	100%	2-2	100%	4-8	50%
Jerami Grant #9 · PF · 6'7" 213 · 32	24.9	6	50%	3	0	0	1	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Donovan Clingan #23 · C · 7'2" 280 · 22	18.7	15	63%	9	2	0	0	0	0	5	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	3-6	50%

Scoot Henderson #00 · PG · 6'3" 207 · 22	21.0	11	46%	1	3	0	0	0	2	1	0	2-2	100%	0-4	0%	3-7	43%
Vít Krejčí #27 · PG · 6'8" 195 · 26	17.0	11	79%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	2-5	40%
Sidy Cissoko #91 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 22	16.4	0	0%	1	1	2	2	0	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Matisse Thybulle #4 · SG · 6'5" 202 · 29	12.7	5	42%	2	1	3	0	2	1	0	2	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	1-4	25%
Blake Wesley #1 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 23	12.0	4	40%	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	2-4	50%	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Robert Williams III #35 · C · 6'9" 249 · 28	11.9	2	50%	3	1	0	1	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kris Murray #24 · SF · 6'8" 218 · 26	9.3	1	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Yang Hansen #16 · C · 7'1" 270 · 21	8.3	4	29%	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	2-6	33%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Javonte Cooke #18 · SG · 6'6" 185 · 27	5.8	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Rayan Rupert #21 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	INACTIVE
Caleb Love #2 · SG · 6'3" 212 · 24	INACTIVE
Damian Lillard #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 36	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles Tendon; Injury Management
Shaedon Sharpe #17 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	50%	36	25	8	5	18	20	8	28	18-29	62%	20-39	51%	15-47	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	POR

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.41 70.7%

POR

0.99 49.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

61%

POR

61%

Midrange

DEN

63%

POR

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

31.5

51%

77%

POR

22.5

32%

48%

Free Throws

DEN

81%

POR

62%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	32	80%	16.0 / 20
J. Murray	25	89%	12.5 / 14
J. Strawther	19	59%	9.5 / 16
T. Hardaway	19	79%	9.5 / 12
C. Johnson	15	63%	7.5 / 12
C. Braun	11	79%	5.5 / 7
S. Jones	10	83%	5.0 / 6
D. Holmes	9	64%	4.5 / 7
B. Brown	6	75%	3.0 / 4
J. Valančiūnas	6	38%	3.0 / 8
K. Simpson	3	50%	1.5 / 3
Z. Nnaji	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Blazers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Holiday	19	79%	9.5 / 12
D. Avdija	15	58%	7.5 / 13
D. Clingan	15	63%	7.5 / 12
S. Henderson	11	46%	5.5 / 12
V. Krejčí	11	79%	5.5 / 7
T. Camara	10	42%	5.0 / 12
J. Grant	6	50%	3.0 / 6
M. Thybulle	5	42%	2.5 / 6
B. Wesley	4	40%	2.0 / 5
Y. Hansen	4	29%	2.0 / 7
R. Williams	2	50%	1.0 / 2
K. Murray	1	50%	0.5 / 1
S. Cissoko	0	-	0.0 / 2
J. Cooke	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 21 113.1	DEN 142.7 +51.6 POR 91.2
Pace	19 99.4 8 101.6	DEN 106.2 POR 117.2 +11.1
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 16 14.2	DEN 13.6 POR 12.3 −1.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 22 53.3%	DEN 68.2% +18.8% POR 49.4%
TO %	3 12.1% 30 16.1%	DEN 12.7% −2.7% POR 15.4%
ORB %	24 23.6% 2 31.3%	DEN 31.7% +17.2% POR 14.5%
FTrt	4 29.4 9 28.0	DEN 33.3 POR 33.7 +0.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 18 61.6%	DEN 74.5% +3.1% POR 71.4%
STL %	30 6.8% 20 8.1%	DEN 10.9% +3.8% POR 7.1%
BLK %	29 7.6% 8 10.1%	DEN 7.7% POR 9.1% +1.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 23 55.6%	DEN 70.7% +21.2% POR 49.5%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 19 63.9%	DEN 61.3% +0.2% POR 61.1%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 29 37.4%	DEN 62.5% +19.6% POR 42.9%
3P %	1 39.6% 28 34.2%	DEN 51.2% +19.3% POR 31.9%
FT %	5 80.8% 24 76.5%	DEN 81.3% +19.2% POR 62.1%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 5 35.6%	DEN 32.3% +11.4% POR 20.9%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 2 17.6%	DEN 25.0% POR 24.4% −0.6%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 3 46.8%	DEN 42.7% POR 54.7% +11.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	POR
Possessions	110	113
Possession Minutes	24.9	23.1
Points	157	103
Rebounds	60	36
Assists	41	25
Steals	12	8
Blocks	3	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	18 (0)
Fouls	22	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (3)	8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	47 (1)	28 (1)
Field Goals	55-96	35-86
At-the-Rim FG	19-31	11-18
Midrange FG	15-24	9-21
2-Point FG	34-55	20-39
3-Point FG	21-41	15-47
Free Throws	26-32	18-29
Fast Break Pts	18	10
2nd Chance Pts	18	7
Points in Paint	54	28
Pts off Turnovers	29	12
Bench Points	55	38
Biggest Lead	55	8

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg