Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, February 21, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	24	Grizzlies	23%	112	120	110.1	109	107.9
	10	Heat	77%	121	136	127.1	107	108.1

Prediction updated: Feb 22, 2026 01:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

MEM

+15

-13

111

MIA

+19

-18

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.10 55.0%

MIA

1.26 63.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

24 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	27.1	25	89%	2	2	2	0	2	3	0	2	2-2	100%	7-8	88%	3-5	60%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · C · 6'7" 230 · 24	25.8	9	90%	3	4	4	0	1	2	1	2	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Walter Clayton Jr. #4 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	25.5	9	41%	4	6	0	0	2	6	0	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-6	17%
Taylor Hendricks #22 · SG · 6'9" 215 · 22	24.3	4	33%	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	1-4	25%	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Ty Jerome #2 · PF · 6'5" 195 · 29	22.4	17	50%	6	4	2	0	2	2	3	3	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	3-8	38%

Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	25.6	10	100%	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	25.6	28	70%	9	2	1	1	2	0	1	8	5-8	63%	10-12	83%	1-5	20%
Jahmai Mashack #21 · C · 6'4" 203 · 23	22.2	0	0%	3	1	0	2	0	4	2	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-3	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	20.9	0	0%	2	5	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	20.6	18	56%	3	6	2	1	3	1	2	1	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Hyperextension
Kyle Anderson #5 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Sprain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; UCL Sprain
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	55%	35	31	14	7	13	22	9	26	15-22	68%	30-52	58%	15-43	35%

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24 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SF · 6'7" 206 · 22	27.1	25	89%	2	2	2	0	2	3	0	2	2-2	100%	7-8	88%	3-5	60%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · C · 6'7" 230 · 24	25.8	9	90%	3	4	4	0	1	2	1	2	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Walter Clayton Jr. #4 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	25.5	9	41%	4	6	0	0	2	6	0	4	0-0	-	3-5	60%	1-6	17%
Taylor Hendricks #22 · SG · 6'9" 215 · 22	24.3	4	33%	2	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	1-4	25%	0-2	0%	1-2	50%
Ty Jerome #2 · PF · 6'5" 195 · 29	22.4	17	50%	6	4	2	0	2	2	3	3	2-2	100%	3-8	38%	3-8	38%

Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	25.6	10	100%	1	1	2	1	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	25.6	28	70%	9	2	1	1	2	0	1	8	5-8	63%	10-12	83%	1-5	20%
Jahmai Mashack #21 · C · 6'4" 203 · 23	22.2	0	0%	3	1	0	2	0	4	2	1	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-3	0%
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	20.9	0	0%	2	5	0	1	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-3	0%
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	20.6	18	56%	3	6	2	1	3	1	2	1	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Hyperextension
Kyle Anderson #5 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 32	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Stress Reaction
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Sprain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; UCL Sprain
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	55%	35	31	14	7	13	22	9	26	15-22	68%	30-52	58%	15-43	35%

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10 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.0	10	50%	1	5	2	1	4	3	0	1	4-6	67%	3-3	100%	0-4	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	28.9	28	117%	7	3	1	0	1	1	2	5	6-6	100%	5-6	83%	4-4	100%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	26.9	13	72%	6	5	0	0	1	0	2	4	4-5	80%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Norman Powell #24 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 33	26.8	25	69%	2	6	2	1	2	2	0	2	2-7	29%	7-8	88%	3-8	38%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	22.9	12	86%	3	5	0	0	2	4	0	3	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-3	67%

Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	22.9	14	44%	5	6	0	0	4	1	1	4	3-3	100%	4-11	36%	1-4	25%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	22.6	12	46%	5	2	1	0	1	5	3	2	2-2	100%	5-10	50%	0-2	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	21.8	4	40%	6	2	1	2	1	3	3	3	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	18.7	11	61%	15	0	1	0	0	0	4	11	0-0	-	4-7	57%	1-2	50%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	6.3	5	83%	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	2.5	2	33%	3	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 22	2.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Tightness
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 27	NWT - Not With Team
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	63%	57	36	8	5	18	21	17	40	25-33	76%	36-59	61%	13-36	36%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	MEM	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MEM

1.10 55.0%

MIA

1.26 63.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MEM

70%

MIA

67%

Midrange

MEM

37%

MIA

43%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MEM

22.5

35%

52%

MIA

19.5

36%

54%

Free Throws

MEM

68%

MIA

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Jackson	28	70%	14.0 / 20
J. Wells	25	89%	12.5 / 14
S. Pippen	18	56%	9.0 / 16
T. Jerome	17	50%	8.5 / 17
J. Small	10	100%	5.0 / 5
O. Prosper	9	90%	4.5 / 5
W. Clayton	9	41%	4.5 / 11
T. Hendricks	4	33%	2.0 / 6
J. Mashack	0	-	0.0 / 6
C. Spencer	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Wiggins	28	117%	14.0 / 12
N. Powell	25	69%	12.5 / 18
T. Herro	14	44%	7.0 / 16
B. Adebayo	13	72%	6.5 / 9
K. Jakučionis	12	86%	6.0 / 7
J. Jaquez	12	46%	6.0 / 13
K. Ware	11	61%	5.5 / 9
P. Larsson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
M. Gardner	5	83%	2.5 / 3
D. Smith	4	40%	2.0 / 5
K. Johnson	2	33%	1.0 / 3
S. Fontecchio	0	-	0.0 / 1
T. Keels	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	23 112.4 12 115.8	MEM 110.1 MIA 127.1 +17.0
Pace	7 101.8 1 104.3	MEM 107.9 MIA 108.1 +0.1
Avg. Poss. Time	26 13.8 30 13.1	MEM 13.3 MIA 13.3 −0.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	24 53.3% 18 54.2%	MEM 55.3% MIA 58.4% +3.1%
TO %	22 14.3% 5 12.6%	MEM 11.0% −3.1% MIA 14.1%
ORB %	19 24.7% 17 25.4%	MEM 18.4% MIA 39.5% +21.1%
FTrt	21 25.1 14 26.8	MEM 23.2 MIA 34.7 +11.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	6 67.4% 10 66.3%	MEM 68.9% MIA 73.5% +4.6%
STL %	11 8.7% 17 8.3%	MEM 12.8% +5.3% MIA 7.5%
BLK %	14 9.1% 28 7.9%	MEM 11.9% +2.3% MIA 9.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	22 55.8% 15 56.8%	MEM 55.0% MIA 63.0% +8.0%
Rim FG%	26 62.8% 20 63.6%	MEM 69.7% +3.0% MIA 66.7%
Mid FG%	11 44.2% 21 42.4%	MEM 36.8% MIA 42.9% +6.1%
3P %	22 35.3% 11 36.1%	MEM 34.9% MIA 36.1% +1.2%
FT %	9 79.3% 11 79.2%	MEM 68.2% MIA 75.8% +7.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	26 28.6% 11 32.9%	MEM 34.7% MIA 47.4% +12.6%
Mid Att. %	19 27.8% 17 26.5%	MEM 20.0% MIA 14.7% −5.3%
3P Att. %	10 43.6% 18 40.6%	MEM 45.3% +7.4% MIA 37.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MEM	MIA
Possessions	109	107
Possession Minutes	24.2	23.8
Points	120	136
Rebounds	35	57
Assists	31	36
Steals	14	8
Blocks	7	5
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	18 (0)
Fouls	22	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (6)	17 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (5)	40 (1)
Field Goals	45-95	49-95
At-the-Rim FG	23-33	30-45
Midrange FG	7-19	6-14
2-Point FG	30-52	36-59
3-Point FG	15-43	13-36
Free Throws	15-22	25-33
Fast Break Pts	23	25
2nd Chance Pts	14	18
Points in Paint	54	70
Pts off Turnovers	30	21
Bench Points	56	48
Biggest Lead	1	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg