Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, February 27, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Nuggets	25%	108	121	105.2	115	104.7
	1	Thunder	75%	117	127	110.4	115	103.6

Prediction updated: Feb 28, 2026 02:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+15

-17

113

OKC

103

+12

-12

115

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.07 53.5%

OKC

1.10 55.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	47.2	39	67%	8	6	2	1	2	5	2	6	8-10	80%	5-13	38%	7-13	54%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	45.3	23	57%	8	2	1	2	3	4	4	4	4-5	80%	5-8	63%	3-10	30%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	44.6	23	44%	17	14	1	0	3	3	2	15	3-5	60%	7-15	47%	2-10	20%
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	40.1	7	44%	8	1	0	3	3	4	1	7	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	15.2	0	0%	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	33.3	16	67%	2	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	4-7	57%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	28.5	7	50%	3	1	3	0	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	8.4	6	60%	2	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	121	54%	51	27	10	6	17	22	11	40	17-22	77%	25-55	45%	18-48	38%

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10 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	47.2	39	67%	8	6	2	1	2	5	2	6	8-10	80%	5-13	38%	7-13	54%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	45.3	23	57%	8	2	1	2	3	4	4	4	4-5	80%	5-8	63%	3-10	30%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	44.6	23	44%	17	14	1	0	3	3	2	15	3-5	60%	7-15	47%	2-10	20%
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	40.1	7	44%	8	1	0	3	3	4	1	7	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	15.2	0	0%	3	2	1	0	1	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	33.3	16	67%	2	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	4-7	57%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	28.5	7	50%	3	1	3	0	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	8.4	6	60%	2	0	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	3-5	60%	0-0	-
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	2.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tamar Bates #7 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	121	54%	51	27	10	6	17	22	11	40	17-22	77%	25-55	45%	18-48	38%

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1 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Chet Holmgren #7 · PF · 7'1" 208 · 24	37.7	15	68%	21	3	1	3	1	0	2	19	4-6	67%	4-6	67%	1-2	50%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	35.9	10	42%	4	3	1	2	4	3	1	3	4-4	100%	3-7	43%	0-3	0%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	33.8	36	51%	3	9	2	2	1	0	0	3	12-13	92%	12-26	46%	0-3	0%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	28.0	8	57%	6	1	1	0	1	5	1	5	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	25.0	9	64%	8	5	2	2	0	3	3	5	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	0-0	-

Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	28.4	12	55%	1	1	2	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-5	60%	2-6	33%
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	25.9	12	75%	5	3	0	1	1	2	0	5	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	22.8	9	75%	4	3	2	0	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	3-5	60%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	19.2	14	88%	2	1	1	0	2	1	0	2	0-0	-	4-5	80%	2-3	67%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	8.4	2	14%	2	0	2	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-3	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Buddy Boeheim #14 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Strain
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Abdominal; Strain/ Left Ankle Sprain
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	127	55%	56	29	14	10	12	16	8	48	23-27	85%	34-64	53%	12-35	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.07 53.5%

OKC

1.10 55.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

61%

OKC

61%

Midrange

DEN

34%

OKC

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

27.0

38%

56%

OKC

18.0

34%

51%

Free Throws

DEN

77%

OKC

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	39	67%	19.5 / 29
C. Braun	23	57%	11.5 / 20
N. Jokić	23	44%	11.5 / 26
T. Hardaway	16	67%	8.0 / 12
C. Johnson	7	44%	3.5 / 8
B. Brown	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Valančiūnas	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Strawther	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	36	51%	18.0 / 35
C. Holmgren	15	68%	7.5 / 11
J. McCain	14	88%	7.0 / 8
A. Caruso	12	55%	6.0 / 11
J. Williams	12	75%	6.0 / 8
C. Wallace	10	42%	5.0 / 12
I. Hartenstein	9	64%	4.5 / 7
I. Joe	9	75%	4.5 / 6
L. Dort	8	57%	4.0 / 7
A. Wiggins	2	14%	1.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 7 117.6	DEN 105.2 OKC 110.4 +5.2
Pace	19 99.4 15 100.3	DEN 104.7 +1.1 OKC 103.6
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 20 14.1	DEN 13.8 −0.1 OKC 13.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 4 56.1%	DEN 50.5% OKC 52.5% +2.0%
TO %	3 12.1% 1 11.8%	DEN 13.8% OKC 9.8% −4.0%
ORB %	24 23.6% 28 22.3%	DEN 18.6% +1.9% OKC 16.7%
FTrt	4 29.4 17 26.1	DEN 21.4 OKC 27.3 +5.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 25 59.8%	DEN 62.8% OKC 63.0% +0.2%
STL %	30 6.8% 4 9.6%	DEN 8.7% OKC 12.2% +3.5%
BLK %	29 7.6% 2 11.0%	DEN 9.4% OKC 18.2% +8.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 4 58.5%	DEN 53.5% OKC 55.2% +1.7%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 11 65.2%	DEN 60.9% +0.3% OKC 60.6%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 1 47.6%	DEN 34.4% OKC 45.2% +10.8%
3P %	1 39.6% 9 36.5%	DEN 37.5% +3.2% OKC 34.3%
FT %	5 80.8% 3 81.7%	DEN 77.3% OKC 85.2% +7.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 16 31.3%	DEN 22.3% OKC 33.3% +11.0%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 15 26.1%	DEN 31.1% −0.2% OKC 31.3%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 13 42.6%	DEN 46.6% +11.2% OKC 35.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	OKC
Possessions	115	115
Possession Minutes	26.4	26.6
Points	121	127
Rebounds	51	56
Assists	27	29
Steals	10	14
Blocks	6	10
Turnovers (Team)	17 (1)	12 (0)
Fouls	22	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (4)	8 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (3)	48 (0)
Field Goals	43-103	46-99
At-the-Rim FG	14-23	20-33
Midrange FG	11-32	14-31
2-Point FG	25-55	34-64
3-Point FG	18-48	12-35
Free Throws	17-22	23-27
Fast Break Pts	17	16
2nd Chance Pts	16	15
Points in Paint	46	58
Pts off Turnovers	10	21
Bench Points	29	49
Biggest Lead	16	9

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg