Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	30	Wizards	11%	104	109	109.0	100	94.4
	16	Magic	89%	120	126	126.0	100	106.4

Prediction updated: Mar 4, 2026 12:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

+20

-12

108

ORL

-8

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.02 50.9%

ORL

1.31 65.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · PF · 6'9" 180 · 20	33.4	19	68%	3	5	2	0	1	3	0	3	1-3	33%	6-8	75%	2-5	40%
Julian Reese #15 · C · 6'9" 230 · 23	32.6	9	56%	8	3	0	0	1	3	3	5	1-4	25%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	31.6	11	61%	3	5	1	0	2	3	1	2	0-1	0%	1-4	25%	3-4	75%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	24.2	6	25%	6	3	0	0	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-6	0%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	23.9	9	32%	0	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	3-4	75%	3-8	38%	0-4	0%

Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	30.6	8	44%	9	1	0	2	0	3	4	5	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	22.6	13	72%	8	1	1	3	0	2	4	4	1-1	100%	6-7	86%	0-2	0%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	21.6	18	60%	2	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	3-4	75%	6-7	86%	1-6	17%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	19.6	16	62%	3	3	0	0	1	2	1	2	5-6	83%	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	NWT - Not With Team \| Left Ankle; Foot; Sprain
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	NWT - Not With Team \| N/a; Illness
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thigh; Contusion
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; MCL Sprain; Quad Contusion
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	51%	42	23	4	6	12	24	13	29	16-25	64%	36-60	60%	7-32	22%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

30 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · PF · 6'9" 180 · 20	33.4	19	68%	3	5	2	0	1	3	0	3	1-3	33%	6-8	75%	2-5	40%
Julian Reese #15 · C · 6'9" 230 · 23	32.6	9	56%	8	3	0	0	1	3	3	5	1-4	25%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	31.6	11	61%	3	5	1	0	2	3	1	2	0-1	0%	1-4	25%	3-4	75%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	24.2	6	25%	6	3	0	0	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	3-6	50%	0-6	0%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	23.9	9	32%	0	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	3-4	75%	3-8	38%	0-4	0%

Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	30.6	8	44%	9	1	0	2	0	3	4	5	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	0-2	0%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	22.6	13	72%	8	1	1	3	0	2	4	4	1-1	100%	6-7	86%	0-2	0%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	21.6	18	60%	2	1	0	0	3	2	0	2	3-4	75%	6-7	86%	1-6	17%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	19.6	16	62%	3	3	0	0	1	2	1	2	5-6	83%	4-8	50%	1-3	33%
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	NWT - Not With Team \| Left Ankle; Foot; Sprain
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	NWT - Not With Team \| N/a; Illness
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thigh; Contusion
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; MCL Sprain; Quad Contusion
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	51%	42	23	4	6	12	24	13	29	16-25	64%	36-60	60%	7-32	22%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

16 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Desmond Bane #3 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 28	33.1	25	89%	2	4	0	0	0	2	1	1	8-8	100%	4-5	80%	3-5	60%
Paolo Banchero #5 · PF · 6'10" 250 · 23	31.9	37	77%	5	6	0	0	2	3	1	4	6-7	86%	14-19	74%	1-2	50%
Tristan da Silva #23 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	27.4	8	67%	9	1	0	1	1	3	0	9	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Jalen Suggs #4 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	26.5	10	56%	3	9	2	2	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	5-7	71%	0-2	0%
Goga Bitadze #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	21.5	9	64%	6	2	0	1	1	2	0	6	5-8	63%	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Jevon Carter #2 · PG · 6'0" 190 · 30	30.1	10	50%	3	6	0	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	3-7	43%
Noah Penda #93 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 21	19.0	5	83%	5	1	0	2	1	0	0	5	3-3	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Moritz Wagner #21 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	15.6	10	56%	3	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	6-6	100%	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Jett Howard #13 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 22	13.5	12	86%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	3-3	100%	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Jase Richardson #11 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 20	13.0	0	0%	0	2	1	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%
Jonathan Isaac #1 · PF · 6'10" 230 · 28	4.3	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 27	4.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Colin Castleton #14 · C · 6'10" 250 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Alex Morales #30 · PG · 6'6" 180 · 28	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Franz Wagner #22 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left High Ankle; Sprain injury management
Wendell Carter Jr. #34 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Anthony Black #0 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quad; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	66%	38	33	3	6	8	22	3	35	32-37	86%	32-51	63%	10-25	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	ORL
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	ORL

Live win probability requires a premium subscription for some games.

SHOOTING

Live advanced shooting dashboard requires a premium subscription for some games.

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.02 50.9%

ORL

1.31 65.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

71%

ORL

72%

Midrange

WAS

44%

ORL

33%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

10.5

22%

33%

ORL

15.0

40%

60%

Free Throws

WAS

64%

ORL

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
W. Riley	19	68%	9.5 / 14
J. Hardy	18	60%	9.0 / 15
S. Cooper	16	62%	8.0 / 13
J. Champagnie	13	72%	6.5 / 9
B. Carrington	11	61%	5.5 / 9
J. Reese	9	56%	4.5 / 8
T. Johnson	9	32%	4.5 / 14
L. Black	8	44%	4.0 / 9
B. Coulibaly	6	25%	3.0 / 12

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Banchero	37	77%	18.5 / 24
D. Bane	25	89%	12.5 / 14
J. Howard	12	86%	6.0 / 7
J. Suggs	10	56%	5.0 / 9
J. Carter	10	50%	5.0 / 10
M. Wagner	10	56%	5.0 / 9
G. Bitadze	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. da Silva	8	67%	4.0 / 6
N. Penda	5	83%	2.5 / 3
J. Richardson	0	-	0.0 / 3
J. Cain	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 109.7 17 114.3	WAS 109.0 ORL 126.0 +17.0
Pace	5 102.5 14 100.5	WAS 94.4 ORL 106.4 +12.0
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 17 14.2	WAS 15.3 ORL 13.5 −1.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.5% 26 53.0%	WAS 50.5% ORL 61.8% +11.3%
TO %	26 14.7% 12 13.5%	WAS 12.0% ORL 8.9% −3.1%
ORB %	21 24.0% 18 25.0%	WAS 27.1% +17.7% ORL 9.4%
FTrt	26 23.5 2 31.1	WAS 27.2 ORL 48.7 +21.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	24 59.9% 12 64.7%	WAS 53.5% ORL 78.6% +25.1%
STL %	22 7.8% 16 8.4%	WAS 4.0% +1.0% ORL 3.0%
BLK %	9 10.0% 17 8.8%	WAS 11.8% +1.8% ORL 10.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	26 55.4% 19 56.3%	WAS 50.9% ORL 65.6% +14.7%
Rim FG%	15 64.7% 24 63.0%	WAS 71.4% ORL 71.8% +0.4%
Mid FG%	26 41.3% 24 41.5%	WAS 44.0% +10.7% ORL 33.3%
3P %	16 35.9% 27 34.3%	WAS 21.9% ORL 40.0% +18.1%
FT %	23 76.6% 8 80.1%	WAS 64.0% ORL 86.5% +22.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.6% 4 35.7%	WAS 38.0% ORL 51.3% +13.3%
Mid Att. %	25 29.1% 12 25.7%	WAS 27.2% ORL 15.8% −11.4%
3P Att. %	20 40.3% 24 38.6%	WAS 34.8% +1.9% ORL 32.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	ORL
Possessions	100	100
Possession Minutes	25.4	22.6
Points	109	126
Rebounds	42	38
Assists	23	33
Steals	4	3
Blocks	6	6
Turnovers (Team)	12 (2)	8 (1)
Fouls	24	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (7)	3 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	29 (4)	35 (0)
Field Goals	43-92	42-76
At-the-Rim FG	25-35	28-39
Midrange FG	11-25	4-12
2-Point FG	36-60	32-51
3-Point FG	7-32	10-25
Free Throws	16-25	32-37
Fast Break Pts	9	19
2nd Chance Pts	12	2
Points in Paint	60	62
Pts off Turnovers	8	23
Bench Points	55	37
Biggest Lead	2	25

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg