Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Spurs	68%	115	131	123.6	106	99.8
	20	76ers	32%	109	91	85.0	107	114.0

Prediction updated: Mar 4, 2026 12:52 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-15

PHI

+14

-13

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.34 66.8%

PHI

0.86 42.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	24.1	10	63%	8	4	3	6	3	0	0	8	3-5	60%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 26	22.6	22	110%	5	1	2	1	1	2	0	5	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	6-8	75%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	21.6	10	56%	7	2	0	0	1	3	0	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.0	11	61%	5	7	1	0	0	1	1	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	21.0	15	68%	4	10	1	0	1	3	2	2	3-4	75%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%

Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	25.6	11	79%	9	3	0	0	1	3	0	9	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	22.3	12	55%	9	0	2	0	3	1	1	8	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-3	0%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	21.7	22	92%	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	4-4	100%	6-7	86%	2-4	50%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	12.3	8	50%	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	12.0	3	30%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	12.0	0	0%	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	12.0	5	125%	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	11.9	2	100%	2	2	0	1	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	67%	56	36	10	10	15	20	6	50	15-18	83%	31-44	70%	18-45	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	24.1	10	63%	8	4	3	6	3	0	0	8	3-5	60%	2-4	50%	1-1	100%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 26	22.6	22	110%	5	1	2	1	1	2	0	5	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	6-8	75%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	21.6	10	56%	7	2	0	0	1	3	0	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.0	11	61%	5	7	1	0	0	1	1	4	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	21.0	15	68%	4	10	1	0	1	3	2	2	3-4	75%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%

Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	25.6	11	79%	9	3	0	0	1	3	0	9	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	22.3	12	55%	9	0	2	0	3	1	1	8	0-0	-	6-8	75%	0-3	0%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	21.7	22	92%	2	2	0	0	2	0	0	2	4-4	100%	6-7	86%	2-4	50%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	12.3	8	50%	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-7	29%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	12.0	3	30%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-3	33%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	12.0	0	0%	3	2	0	1	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	12.0	5	125%	1	1	0	0	0	4	0	1	1-1	100%	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	11.9	2	100%	2	2	0	1	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	67%	56	36	10	10	15	20	6	50	15-18	83%	31-44	70%	18-45	40%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

20 Philadelphia 76ers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyrese Maxey #0 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 25	25.1	21	50%	8	2	1	1	2	0	0	8	3-4	75%	6-13	46%	2-6	33%
Quentin Grimes #5 · SF · 6'5" 207 · 26	21.8	2	20%	2	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
VJ Edgecombe #77 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 21	19.6	6	30%	4	1	1	2	1	0	3	1	2-3	67%	2-7	29%	0-2	0%
Dominick Barlow #25 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 23	13.0	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	0-1	0%
Andre Drummond #1 · C · 6'11" 279 · 33	5.2	2	14%	3	0	0	0	0	3	2	1	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-4	0%

Justin Edwards #11 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 22	26.5	9	64%	1	3	0	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	3-5	60%
Cameron Payne #20 · PG · 6'2" 183 · 32	25.8	10	45%	2	2	2	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-8	25%
Trendon Watford #12 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	25.6	9	41%	2	3	2	0	4	0	0	2	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	0-4	0%
Adem Bona #30 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	22.1	6	100%	6	2	0	0	2	2	1	5	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Jabari Walker #33 · SF · 6'7" 237 · 24	19.5	20	91%	7	0	0	0	1	1	2	5	4-4	100%	5-5	100%	2-5	40%
Tyrese Martin #23 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 27	19.5	2	25%	2	4	0	1	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Dalen Terry #14 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 24	16.4	4	25%	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	3	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	1-3	33%
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 40	DNP – Coach's Decision
MarJon Beauchamp #16 · SF · 6'7" 199 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kelly Oubre Jr. #9 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Illness
Joel Embiid #21 · C · 7'0" 270 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Oblique; Strain
Johni Broome #22 · PF · 6'9" 244 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Paul George #8 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 36	Inactive - League Suspension \| -NWT
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	91	43%	40	20	8	5	13	16	9	31	15-19	79%	23-53	43%	10-42	24%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	PHI
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	PHI

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.34 66.8%

PHI

0.86 42.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

76%

PHI

56%

Midrange

SAS

55%

PHI

24%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

27.0

40%

60%

PHI

15.0

24%

36%

Free Throws

SAS

83%

PHI

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Vassell	22	110%	11.0 / 10
D. Harper	22	92%	11.0 / 12
S. Castle	15	68%	7.5 / 11
K. Johnson	12	55%	6.0 / 11
D. Fox	11	61%	5.5 / 9
C. Bryant	11	79%	5.5 / 7
V. Wembanyama	10	63%	5.0 / 8
J. Champagnie	10	56%	5.0 / 9
L. Waters	8	50%	4.0 / 8
B. Biyombo	5	125%	2.5 / 2
J. McLaughlin	3	30%	1.5 / 5
L. Kornet	2	100%	1.0 / 1
K. Olynyk	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

76ers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Maxey	21	50%	10.5 / 21
J. Walker	20	91%	10.0 / 11
C. Payne	10	45%	5.0 / 11
J. Edwards	9	64%	4.5 / 7
T. Watford	9	41%	4.5 / 11
V. Edgecombe	6	30%	3.0 / 10
A. Bona	6	100%	3.0 / 3
D. Terry	4	25%	2.0 / 8
Q. Grimes	2	20%	1.0 / 5
A. Drummond	2	14%	1.0 / 7
T. Martin	2	25%	1.0 / 4
D. Barlow	0	-	0.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 16 114.4	SAS 123.6 +38.5 PHI 85.0
Pace	13 100.5 16 100.3	SAS 99.8 PHI 114.0 +14.2
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 11 14.6	SAS 14.4 PHI 12.6 −1.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 25 53.0%	SAS 65.2% +25.2% PHI 40.0%
TO %	4 12.5% 6 12.8%	SAS 14.9% PHI 11.9% −3.0%
ORB %	10 26.2% 11 26.2%	SAS 16.2% +0.9% PHI 15.3%
FTrt	12 27.3 11 27.5	SAS 20.2 +0.2 PHI 20.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 28 58.9%	SAS 73.5% +12.9% PHI 60.6%
STL %	24 7.5% 7 9.0%	SAS 9.4% +1.9% PHI 7.5%
BLK %	10 10.0% 3 10.9%	SAS 18.9% +7.5% PHI 11.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 21 55.9%	SAS 66.8% +23.9% PHI 42.9%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 27 62.1%	SAS 75.8% +19.5% PHI 56.3%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 23 41.8%	SAS 54.5% +30.7% PHI 23.8%
3P %	15 35.9% 23 34.9%	SAS 40.0% +16.2% PHI 23.8%
FT %	12 78.7% 4 80.9%	SAS 83.3% +4.4% PHI 78.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 6 35.0%	SAS 37.1% +3.4% PHI 33.7%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 13 25.9%	SAS 12.4% −9.7% PHI 22.1%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 23 39.1%	SAS 50.6% +6.4% PHI 44.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	PHI
Possessions	106	107
Possession Minutes	25.5	22.5
Points	131	91
Rebounds	56	40
Assists	36	20
Steals	10	8
Blocks	10	5
Turnovers (Team)	15 (2)	13 (1)
Fouls	20	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (1)	9 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	50 (1)	31 (5)
Field Goals	49-89	33-95
At-the-Rim FG	25-33	18-32
Midrange FG	6-11	5-21
2-Point FG	31-44	23-53
3-Point FG	18-45	10-42
Free Throws	15-18	15-19
Fast Break Pts	19	14
2nd Chance Pts	9	13
Points in Paint	60	46
Pts off Turnovers	20	13
Bench Points	63	60
Biggest Lead	49	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg