Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	2	Pistons	49%	111	106	111.6	95	97.8
	7	Spurs	51%	112	121	126.0	96	93.3

Prediction updated: Mar 6, 2026 12:36 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DET

+16

-10

101

SAS

+13

-8

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DET

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.20 59.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

2 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cade Cunningham #2 · PG · 6'6" 220 · 24	39.4	26	50%	4	8	0	0	4	5	0	4	2-2	100%	6-19	32%	4-7	57%
Tobias Harris #12 · PF · 6'8" 226 · 34	30.8	11	61%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	6-6	100%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 32	26.2	11	69%	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Jalen Duren #0 · C · 6'10" 250 · 22	12.3	7	44%	7	2	0	0	1	5	2	5	1-3	33%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Ausar Thompson #9 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 23	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-

Isaiah Stewart #28 · C · 6'8" 250 · 25	29.5	18	75%	5	2	1	1	1	1	3	2	7-8	88%	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Caris LeVert #8 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 32	20.2	0	0%	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Javonte Green #31 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 33	18.9	10	56%	3	0	0	2	0	3	1	2	5-5	100%	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kevin Huerter #27 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 28	17.5	7	88%	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Daniss Jenkins #24 · PG · 6'4" 165 · 25	14.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-2	0%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Ronald Holland II #5 · SF · 6'8" 206 · 21	11.8	10	71%	5	0	0	0	0	2	4	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Paul Reed #7 · C · 6'9" 210 · 27	8.5	6	75%	4	0	1	0	1	4	3	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Sasser #25 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	6.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chaz Lanier #20 · SG · 6'3" 206 · 24	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bobi Klintman #34 · SF · 6'9" 225 · 23	0.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tolu Smith #35 · PF · 6'11" 254 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Wendell Moore Jr. #14 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	53%	44	20	4	4	10	23	14	30	24-30	80%	23-59	39%	12-28	43%

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2 Detroit Pistons

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cade Cunningham #2 · PG · 6'6" 220 · 24	39.4	26	50%	4	8	0	0	4	5	0	4	2-2	100%	6-19	32%	4-7	57%
Tobias Harris #12 · PF · 6'8" 226 · 34	30.8	11	61%	4	1	0	0	1	2	0	4	6-6	100%	1-3	33%	1-3	33%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SG · 6'7" 215 · 32	26.2	11	69%	3	1	1	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Jalen Duren #0 · C · 6'10" 250 · 22	12.3	7	44%	7	2	0	0	1	5	2	5	1-3	33%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Ausar Thompson #9 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 23	2.1	0	0%	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-

Isaiah Stewart #28 · C · 6'8" 250 · 25	29.5	18	75%	5	2	1	1	1	1	3	2	7-8	88%	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Caris LeVert #8 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 32	20.2	0	0%	3	3	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Javonte Green #31 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 33	18.9	10	56%	3	0	0	2	0	3	1	2	5-5	100%	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Kevin Huerter #27 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 28	17.5	7	88%	5	2	1	0	0	0	0	5	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-2	50%
Daniss Jenkins #24 · PG · 6'4" 165 · 25	14.8	0	0%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-2	0%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Ronald Holland II #5 · SF · 6'8" 206 · 21	11.8	10	71%	5	0	0	0	0	2	4	1	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	0-1	0%
Paul Reed #7 · C · 6'9" 210 · 27	8.5	6	75%	4	0	1	0	1	4	3	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Sasser #25 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 25	6.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Chaz Lanier #20 · SG · 6'3" 206 · 24	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bobi Klintman #34 · SF · 6'9" 225 · 23	0.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Isaac Jones #3 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tolu Smith #35 · PF · 6'11" 254 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Wendell Moore Jr. #14 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	53%	44	20	4	4	10	23	14	30	24-30	80%	23-59	39%	12-28	43%

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7 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	38.9	39	67%	16	3	0	5	0	5	2	14	10-11	91%	8-14	57%	4-10	40%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	34.8	11	61%	1	12	2	1	2	4	0	1	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	0-0	-
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	32.4	29	63%	5	3	2	1	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	8-12	67%	4-10	40%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	30.7	16	73%	7	1	0	0	0	0	0	7	5-7	71%	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	30.5	8	50%	3	3	0	1	1	2	1	2	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	1-5	20%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.9	8	50%	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.4	7	70%	2	1	1	0	3	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	19.7	2	33%	6	0	0	3	1	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	8.4	2	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	0.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	0.8	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	121	60%	46	24	5	11	8	20	8	38	24-30	80%	29-47	62%	13-37	35%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DET	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DET	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DET

1.05 52.5%

SAS

1.20 59.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DET

43%

SAS

69%

Midrange

DET

32%

SAS

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DET

18.0

43%

64%

SAS

19.5

35%

53%

Free Throws

DET

80%

SAS

80%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pistons

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Cunningham	26	50%	13.0 / 26
I. Stewart	18	75%	9.0 / 12
T. Harris	11	61%	5.5 / 9
D. Robinson	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Green	10	56%	5.0 / 9
R. Holland	10	71%	5.0 / 7
J. Duren	7	44%	3.5 / 8
K. Huerter	7	88%	3.5 / 4
P. Reed	6	75%	3.0 / 4
A. Thompson	0	-	0.0 / 0
C. LeVert	0	-	0.0 / 5
D. Jenkins	0	-	0.0 / 7
M. Sasser	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	39	67%	19.5 / 29
D. Fox	29	63%	14.5 / 23
J. Champagnie	16	73%	8.0 / 11
S. Castle	11	61%	5.5 / 9
D. Vassell	8	50%	4.0 / 8
K. Johnson	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Harper	7	70%	3.5 / 5
C. Bryant	2	33%	1.0 / 3
L. Kornet	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	9 117.4 3 118.9	DET 111.6 SAS 126.0 +14.5
Pace	20 99.3 13 100.5	DET 97.8 +4.6 SAS 93.3
Avg. Poss. Time	13 14.5 18 14.2	DET 14.7 −0.7 SAS 15.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	15 54.7% 7 55.9%	DET 47.1% SAS 57.7% +10.6%
TO %	21 14.1% 4 12.5%	DET 9.1% SAS 8.5% −0.6%
ORB %	3 30.9% 10 26.2%	DET 26.9% +5.8% SAS 21.1%
FTrt	5 29.2 12 27.3	DET 34.5 SAS 35.7 +1.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	16 64.1% 13 64.6%	DET 57.1% SAS 57.1%
STL %	1 10.4% 24 7.5%	DET 4.2% SAS 5.2% +1.0%
BLK %	1 13.2% 10 10.0%	DET 8.5% SAS 18.6% +10.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.07 and 3.07.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	12 57.0% 6 58.1%	DET 52.5% SAS 59.9% +7.4%
Rim FG%	16 64.7% 9 65.8%	DET 43.2% SAS 68.8% +25.6%
Mid FG%	27 40.5% 5 45.1%	DET 31.8% SAS 46.7% +14.9%
3P %	17 35.6% 15 35.9%	DET 42.9% +7.8% SAS 35.1%
FT %	27 76.3% 12 78.7%	DET 80.0% SAS 80.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	2 40.1% 7 34.4%	DET 42.5% +4.4% SAS 38.1%
Mid Att. %	11 25.3% 7 23.4%	DET 25.3% SAS 17.9% −7.4%
3P Att. %	29 34.5% 15 42.2%	DET 32.2% SAS 44.0% +11.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Game Totals	DET	SAS
Possessions	95	96
Possession Minutes	23.3	24.7
Points	106	121
Rebounds	44	46
Assists	20	24
Steals	4	5
Blocks	4	11
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	8 (1)
Fouls	23	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (2)	8 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (2)	38 (1)
Field Goals	35-87	42-84
At-the-Rim FG	16-37	22-32
Midrange FG	7-22	7-15
2-Point FG	23-59	29-47
3-Point FG	12-28	13-37
Free Throws	24-30	24-30
Fast Break Pts	12	16
2nd Chance Pts	22	18
Points in Paint	36	52
Pts off Turnovers	6	13
Bench Points	51	19
Biggest Lead	0	22

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg