Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, March 5, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Lakers	45%	117	113	116.5	97	99.0
	11	Nuggets	55%	119	120	121.2	99	97.0

Prediction updated: Mar 6, 2026 03:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

LAL

-10

DEN

+12

-18

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

LAL

1.20 60.1%

DEN

1.30 65.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	40.4	27	52%	11	7	4	0	3	3	1	10	2-4	50%	8-14	57%	3-10	30%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	38.0	16	62%	5	7	3	0	0	2	2	3	3-4	75%	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	33.7	16	67%	5	8	3	1	1	2	0	5	2-2	100%	7-9	78%	0-2	0%
Marcus Smart #36 · PF · 6'3" 220 · 32	32.2	9	50%	1	2	1	0	4	4	1	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	3-6	50%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 28	4.5	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-

Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	29.0	16	89%	2	3	1	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-5	80%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	27.5	19	79%	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	3	3-5	60%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	20.4	8	67%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	10.3	2	17%	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	4.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kobe Bufkin #18 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	INACTIVE
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	INACTIVE
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	INACTIVE
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	60%	32	30	12	1	10	21	6	26	10-15	67%	32-56	57%	13-31	42%

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10 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	40.4	27	52%	11	7	4	0	3	3	1	10	2-4	50%	8-14	57%	3-10	30%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	38.0	16	62%	5	7	3	0	0	2	2	3	3-4	75%	5-9	56%	1-2	50%
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	33.7	16	67%	5	8	3	1	1	2	0	5	2-2	100%	7-9	78%	0-2	0%
Marcus Smart #36 · PF · 6'3" 220 · 32	32.2	9	50%	1	2	1	0	4	4	1	0	0-0	-	0-3	0%	3-6	50%
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 28	4.5	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-

Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	29.0	16	89%	2	3	1	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	4-5	80%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	27.5	19	79%	5	2	0	0	0	1	2	3	3-5	60%	8-10	80%	0-0	-
Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	20.4	8	67%	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	10.3	2	17%	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-3	0%
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	4.0	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kobe Bufkin #18 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	INACTIVE
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	INACTIVE
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	INACTIVE
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Back; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	113	60%	32	30	12	1	10	21	6	26	10-15	67%	32-56	57%	13-31	42%

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11 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Christian Braun #0 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 25	39.9	15	58%	5	4	0	0	1	0	0	5	1-2	50%	4-6	67%	2-6	33%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	38.4	28	74%	4	7	0	0	2	3	0	4	7-7	100%	3-8	38%	5-9	56%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	37.8	28	74%	12	13	1	1	9	4	3	9	8-8	100%	10-14	71%	0-1	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	28.8	18	75%	2	0	1	0	2	4	0	2	4-5	80%	4-5	80%	2-5	40%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	23.8	5	63%	5	1	1	0	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	29.9	8	50%	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	4	0-0	-	1-5	20%	2-3	67%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	25.6	14	78%	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4-5	80%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	10.2	4	100%	4	1	0	0	2	1	1	3	4-4	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	5.7	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	INACTIVE
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Strain
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Inflammation
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	65%	41	27	3	1	18	16	7	34	28-31	90%	25-44	57%	14-31	45%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	LAL	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

LAL

1.20 60.1%

DEN

1.30 65.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

LAL

67%

DEN

64%

Midrange

LAL

46%

DEN

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

LAL

19.5

42%

63%

DEN

21.0

45%

68%

Free Throws

LAL

67%

DEN

90%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	27	52%	13.5 / 26
J. Hayes	19	79%	9.5 / 12
A. Reaves	16	62%	8.0 / 13
L. James	16	67%	8.0 / 12
R. Hachimura	16	89%	8.0 / 9
M. Smart	9	50%	4.5 / 9
L. Kennard	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. LaRavia	2	17%	1.0 / 6
D. Ayton	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	28	74%	14.0 / 19
N. Jokić	28	74%	14.0 / 19
J. Strawther	18	75%	9.0 / 12
C. Braun	15	58%	7.5 / 13
T. Hardaway	14	78%	7.0 / 9
B. Brown	8	50%	4.0 / 8
Z. Nnaji	5	63%	2.5 / 4
J. Valančiūnas	4	100%	2.0 / 2
T. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	10 117.1 1 121.3	LAL 116.5 DEN 121.2 +4.7
Pace	21 99.2 19 99.4	LAL 99.0 +2.0 DEN 97.0
Avg. Poss. Time	6 14.8 9 14.7	LAL 14.5 −0.3 DEN 14.8
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	2 57.3% 1 57.7%	LAL 59.2% DEN 61.3% +2.1%
TO %	19 13.9% 3 12.1%	LAL 9.7% −7.2% DEN 16.9%
ORB %	22 23.9% 24 23.6%	LAL 15.0% DEN 21.2% +6.2%
FTrt	1 32.0 4 29.4	LAL 17.2 DEN 41.3 +24.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	19 61.5% 9 66.5%	LAL 66.7% DEN 69.2% +2.5%
STL %	12 8.6% 30 6.8%	LAL 12.4% +9.4% DEN 3.0%
BLK %	23 8.3% 29 7.6%	LAL 2.3% +0.5% DEN 1.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	2 59.4% 1 60.1%	LAL 60.1% DEN 65.2% +5.1%
Rim FG%	1 72.0% 12 65.1%	LAL 66.7% +3.1% DEN 63.6%
Mid FG%	4 46.8% 2 47.0%	LAL 46.2% DEN 50.0% +3.8%
3P %	14 35.9% 1 39.6%	LAL 41.9% DEN 45.2% +3.3%
FT %	26 76.3% 5 80.8%	LAL 66.7% DEN 90.3% +23.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	21 30.7% 19 31.1%	LAL 34.5% +5.1% DEN 29.3%
Mid Att. %	26 30.0% 21 28.1%	LAL 29.9% DEN 29.3% −0.6%
3P Att. %	22 39.4% 17 40.8%	LAL 35.6% DEN 41.3% +5.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	LAL	DEN
Possessions	97	99
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	113	120
Rebounds	32	41
Assists	30	27
Steals	12	3
Blocks	1	1
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	18 (0)
Fouls	21	16
Off. Rebounds (Team)	6 (1)	7 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (2)	34 (3)
Field Goals	45-87	39-75
At-the-Rim FG	20-30	14-22
Midrange FG	12-26	11-22
2-Point FG	32-56	25-44
3-Point FG	13-31	14-31
Free Throws	10-15	28-31
Fast Break Pts	22	11
2nd Chance Pts	11	15
Points in Paint	54	42
Pts off Turnovers	26	11
Bench Points	45	26
Biggest Lead	0	15

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg