Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 6, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	25	Pacers	27%	112	117	114.7	102	106.3
	10	Lakers	73%	120	128	125.5	102	98.0

Prediction updated: Mar 7, 2026 03:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

IND

+16

-7

111

LAL

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.05 52.7%

LAL

1.31 65.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	33.2	16	57%	6	2	1	2	0	1	3	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	31.1	17	57%	2	8	1	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	1-6	17%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	29.4	26	54%	5	3	2	0	2	1	0	5	6-9	67%	10-17	59%	0-3	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 23	26.9	10	50%	9	5	1	0	2	2	1	8	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	22.8	7	35%	3	1	0	2	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-6	17%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	26.0	5	42%	2	4	3	0	1	3	2	0	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	17.8	10	50%	1	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	17.8	8	57%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	14.2	8	80%	6	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	11.0	2	25%	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	9.9	8	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	53%	40	33	10	4	7	19	12	28	17-24	71%	38-63	60%	8-35	23%

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25 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	33.2	16	57%	6	2	1	2	0	1	3	3	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	2-6	33%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	31.1	17	57%	2	8	1	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	6-8	75%	1-6	17%
Pascal Siakam #43 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 32	29.4	26	54%	5	3	2	0	2	1	0	5	6-9	67%	10-17	59%	0-3	0%
Jarace Walker #5 · SF · 6'7" 235 · 23	26.9	10	50%	9	5	1	0	2	2	1	8	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	1-3	33%
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 26	22.8	7	35%	3	1	0	2	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-6	17%

Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	26.0	5	42%	2	4	3	0	1	3	2	0	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	1-5	20%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	17.8	10	50%	1	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Quenton Jackson #29 · PG · 6'4" 173 · 27	17.8	8	57%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	14.2	8	80%	6	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	1-2	50%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	11.0	2	25%	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	9.9	8	100%	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Slawson #18 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Ethan Thompson #55 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	53%	40	33	10	4	7	19	12	28	17-24	71%	38-63	60%	8-35	23%

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10 Los Angeles Lakers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Luka Dončić #77 · PG · 6'8" 230 · 27	31.7	44	73%	9	5	3	2	3	1	0	9	9-10	90%	7-11	64%	7-14	50%
Marcus Smart #36 · SF · 6'3" 220 · 32	28.8	11	92%	3	3	0	0	2	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-4	75%
Austin Reaves #15 · SG · 6'5" 197 · 28	28.6	19	56%	2	5	0	0	3	6	0	2	6-7	86%	5-10	50%	1-4	25%
Jaxson Hayes #11 · C · 7'0" 220 · 26	25.4	9	64%	4	2	1	0	0	2	2	2	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Rui Hachimura #28 · PF · 6'8" 230 · 28	23.2	13	81%	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	2-3	67%

Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 30	26.7	15	83%	7	3	0	0	0	0	1	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Drew Timme #17 · PF · 6'9" 235 · 25	22.6	4	100%	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-0	-
Jarred Vanderbilt #2 · PF · 6'8" 214 · 27	21.1	2	25%	8	3	1	0	1	2	2	6	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Jake LaRavia #12 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 24	15.9	8	50%	2	0	0	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	3-5	60%	0-2	0%
Bronny James #9 · SG · 6'2" 210 · 21	5.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Chris Mañon #30 · SG · 6'4" 209 · 24	3.7	0	0%	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Dalton Knecht #4 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 25	3.7	3	150%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Kobe Bufkin #18 · SG · 6'4" 195 · 22	3.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Adou Thiero #1 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nick Smith Jr. #20 · SG · 6'2" 185 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Deandre Ayton #5 · C · 7'0" 252 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
LeBron James #23 · SF · 6'9" 250 · 41	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow Contusion &; Left Foot Arthritis
Maxi Kleber #14 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Lumbar Back; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	65%	43	25	5	2	12	22	6	37	21-23	91%	28-48	58%	17-37	46%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	IND	LAL
Clock	Team	Event	IND	LAL

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

IND

1.05 52.7%

LAL

1.31 65.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

IND

80%

LAL

64%

Midrange

IND

42%

LAL

54%

3PT | Effective 3PT

IND

12.0

23%

34%

LAL

25.5

46%

69%

Free Throws

IND

71%

LAL

91%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	26	54%	13.0 / 24
A. Nembhard	17	57%	8.5 / 15
J. Huff	16	57%	8.0 / 14
J. Walker	10	50%	5.0 / 10
T. McConnell	10	50%	5.0 / 10
Q. Jackson	8	57%	4.0 / 7
M. Potter	8	80%	4.0 / 5
K. Brown	8	100%	4.0 / 4
A. Nesmith	7	35%	3.5 / 10
B. Sheppard	5	42%	2.5 / 6
O. Toppin	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Lakers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Dončić	44	73%	22.0 / 30
A. Reaves	19	56%	9.5 / 17
L. Kennard	15	83%	7.5 / 9
R. Hachimura	13	81%	6.5 / 8
M. Smart	11	92%	5.5 / 6
J. Hayes	9	64%	4.5 / 7
J. LaRavia	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Timme	4	100%	2.0 / 2
D. Knecht	3	150%	1.5 / 1
J. Vanderbilt	2	25%	1.0 / 4
C. Mañon	0	-	0.0 / 1
K. Bufkin	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	28 110.1 10 117.1	IND 114.7 LAL 125.5 +10.8
Pace	10 101.4 21 99.2	IND 106.3 +8.3 LAL 98.0
Avg. Poss. Time	25 13.9 6 14.8	IND 13.5 −1.1 LAL 14.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	23 53.3% 2 57.3%	IND 51.0% LAL 62.9% +11.9%
TO %	14 13.6% 19 13.9%	IND 6.1% −5.9% LAL 12.0%
ORB %	29 21.7% 22 23.9%	IND 24.5% +6.9% LAL 17.6%
FTrt	20 25.2 1 32.0	IND 24.5 LAL 27.1 +2.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	5 67.8% 19 61.5%	IND 71.7% +16.1% LAL 55.6%
STL %	28 7.2% 12 8.6%	IND 9.8% +4.9% LAL 4.9%
BLK %	26 8.1% 23 8.3%	IND 8.3% +5.1% LAL 3.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	24 55.4% 2 59.4%	IND 52.7% LAL 65.3% +12.6%
Rim FG%	25 62.9% 1 72.0%	IND 80.0% +16.4% LAL 63.6%
Mid FG%	19 42.7% 4 46.8%	IND 42.4% LAL 53.8% +11.4%
3P %	18 35.6% 14 35.9%	IND 22.9% LAL 45.9% +23.0%
FT %	17 77.6% 26 76.3%	IND 70.8% LAL 91.3% +20.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	23 30.3% 21 30.7%	IND 30.6% +4.7% LAL 25.9%
Mid Att. %	18 27.5% 26 30.0%	IND 33.7% LAL 30.6% −3.1%
3P Att. %	14 42.2% 22 39.4%	IND 35.7% LAL 43.5% +7.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.16 and 3.16.

Game Totals	IND	LAL
Possessions	102	102
Possession Minutes	23.0	25.0
Points	117	128
Rebounds	40	43
Assists	33	25
Steals	10	5
Blocks	4	2
Turnovers (Team)	7 (0)	12 (1)
Fouls	19	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	6 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (5)	37 (3)
Field Goals	46-98	45-85
At-the-Rim FG	24-30	14-22
Midrange FG	14-33	14-26
2-Point FG	38-63	28-48
3-Point FG	8-35	17-37
Free Throws	17-24	21-23
Fast Break Pts	18	11
2nd Chance Pts	18	4
Points in Paint	62	52
Pts off Turnovers	17	11
Bench Points	41	32
Biggest Lead	5	24

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg