Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 9, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	8	Nuggets	33%	110	126	126.0	100	103.4
	2	Thunder	67%	116	129	129.0	100	96.8

Prediction updated: Mar 9, 2026 11:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+21

-7

114

OKC

-3

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.12 55.8%

OKC

1.25 62.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	40.3	32	80%	14	13	0	1	3	0	1	13	5-6	83%	9-13	69%	3-6	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	37.8	4	29%	9	2	2	1	1	5	2	7	0-2	0%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	36.8	21	42%	8	6	0	1	0	3	2	6	3-3	100%	9-19	47%	0-4	0%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	28.5	23	64%	10	3	1	0	1	2	4	6	9-10	90%	4-10	40%	2-4	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	22.7	6	43%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	1-3	33%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	33.0	28	82%	2	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	8-12	67%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	16.4	4	33%	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	15.5	6	43%	5	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-3	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	6.0	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	3.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	56%	56	29	3	3	7	20	16	40	21-29	72%	30-61	49%	15-37	41%

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8 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	40.3	32	80%	14	13	0	1	3	0	1	13	5-6	83%	9-13	69%	3-6	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	37.8	4	29%	9	2	2	1	1	5	2	7	0-2	0%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	36.8	21	42%	8	6	0	1	0	3	2	6	3-3	100%	9-19	47%	0-4	0%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	28.5	23	64%	10	3	1	0	1	2	4	6	9-10	90%	4-10	40%	2-4	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	22.7	6	43%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	1-3	33%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	33.0	28	82%	2	2	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	8-12	67%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	16.4	4	33%	3	1	0	0	1	3	1	2	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	15.5	6	43%	5	0	0	0	0	2	5	0	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-3	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	6.0	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	3.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	126	56%	56	29	3	3	7	20	16	40	21-29	72%	30-61	49%	15-37	41%

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2 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jaylin Williams #6 · C · 6'9" 240 · 24	39.6	29	81%	12	3	0	2	1	4	0	12	2-4	50%	3-6	50%	7-11	64%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	39.0	35	80%	9	15	1	1	0	3	1	8	4-4	100%	11-14	79%	3-7	43%
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	32.1	13	65%	4	2	0	2	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	3-8	38%
Luguentz Dort #5 · PF · 6'4" 220 · 27	30.4	6	25%	4	0	1	2	1	5	0	4	0-2	0%	0-3	0%	2-8	25%
Cason Wallace #22 · SF · 6'3" 195 · 22	16.8	4	33%	2	1	0	1	0	3	1	1	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%

Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	29.4	24	67%	2	3	1	0	0	1	1	1	5-5	100%	8-12	67%	1-4	25%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	21.5	13	81%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-5	60%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 27	17.6	3	38%	2	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	13.5	2	33%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	DNP – Coach's Decision
Payton Sandfort #14 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Strain
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| N/a; Flu
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Contusion
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Contusion
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	63%	37	27	3	9	3	20	3	34	16-21	76%	28-46	61%	19-47	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	OKC

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.12 55.8%

OKC

1.25 62.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

58%

OKC

63%

Midrange

DEN

39%

OKC

59%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

22.5

41%

61%

OKC

28.5

40%

61%

Free Throws

DEN

72%

OKC

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	32	80%	16.0 / 20
T. Hardaway	28	82%	14.0 / 17
A. Gordon	23	64%	11.5 / 18
J. Murray	21	42%	10.5 / 25
C. Johnson	6	43%	3.0 / 7
S. Jones	6	43%	3.0 / 7
C. Braun	4	29%	2.0 / 7
B. Brown	4	33%	2.0 / 6
J. Valančiūnas	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Strawther	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	35	80%	17.5 / 22
J. Williams	29	81%	14.5 / 18
A. Mitchell	24	67%	12.0 / 18
I. Joe	13	65%	6.5 / 10
J. McCain	13	81%	6.5 / 8
L. Dort	6	25%	3.0 / 12
C. Wallace	4	33%	2.0 / 6
A. Wiggins	3	38%	1.5 / 4
K. Williams	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 7 117.6	DEN 126.0 OKC 129.0 +3.0
Pace	19 99.4 15 100.3	DEN 103.4 +6.6 OKC 96.8
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 20 14.1	DEN 13.9 −0.9 OKC 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 4 56.1%	DEN 53.6% OKC 60.8% +7.2%
TO %	3 12.1% 1 11.8%	DEN 6.7% OKC 2.9% −3.8%
ORB %	24 23.6% 28 22.3%	DEN 32.0% +25.0% OKC 7.0%
FTrt	4 29.4 17 26.1	DEN 29.6 +7.0 OKC 22.6
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 25 59.8%	DEN 64.4% +7.0% OKC 57.4%
STL %	30 6.8% 4 9.6%	DEN 3.0% OKC 3.0%
BLK %	29 7.6% 2 11.0%	DEN 6.5% OKC 14.8% +8.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 4 58.5%	DEN 55.8% OKC 62.6% +6.8%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 11 65.2%	DEN 57.6% OKC 62.5% +4.9%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 1 47.6%	DEN 39.3% OKC 59.1% +19.8%
3P %	1 39.6% 9 36.5%	DEN 40.5% +0.1% OKC 40.4%
FT %	5 80.8% 3 81.7%	DEN 72.4% OKC 76.2% +3.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 16 31.3%	DEN 33.7% +7.9% OKC 25.8%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 15 26.1%	DEN 28.6% OKC 23.7% −4.9%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 13 42.6%	DEN 37.8% OKC 50.5% +12.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	OKC
Possessions	100	100
Possession Minutes	23.2	24.8
Points	126	129
Rebounds	56	37
Assists	29	27
Steals	3	3
Blocks	3	9
Turnovers (Team)	7 (1)	3 (0)
Fouls	20	20
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (5)	3 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (4)	34 (2)
Field Goals	45-98	47-93
At-the-Rim FG	19-33	15-24
Midrange FG	11-28	13-22
2-Point FG	30-61	28-46
3-Point FG	15-37	19-47
Free Throws	21-29	16-21
Fast Break Pts	12	14
2nd Chance Pts	26	7
Points in Paint	54	48
Pts off Turnovers	2	11
Bench Points	40	42
Biggest Lead	13	12

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg