Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	4	Cavaliers	56%	115	122	128.4	95	91.3
	16	Magic	44%	113	128	133.3	96	100.0

Prediction updated: Mar 11, 2026 11:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

CLE

+16

-9

102

ORL

+13

-6

103

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CLE

1.20 59.8%

ORL

1.25 62.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

4 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	36.8	30	83%	5	8	0	0	4	1	0	5	3-5	60%	6-7	86%	5-9	56%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	36.1	25	50%	5	5	1	0	3	1	2	3	3-3	100%	5-11	45%	4-13	31%
Evan Mobley #4 · C · 6'11" 215 · 25	31.6	18	60%	13	4	0	2	0	5	5	8	2-7	29%	8-11	73%	0-2	0%
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	30.2	13	72%	4	2	1	0	0	4	1	3	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	2-5	40%
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	20.0	0	0%	5	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%

Keon Ellis #14 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	31.1	20	91%	4	1	1	1	0	2	1	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	5-8	63%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	18.6	12	67%	5	0	0	1	0	1	3	2	3-3	100%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	17.8	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	17.7	4	40%	1	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quadricep; Strain
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery - Jones Fracture
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendonitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	60%	42	24	3	5	9	22	12	30	17-26	65%	27-45	60%	17-44	39%

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4 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	36.8	30	83%	5	8	0	0	4	1	0	5	3-5	60%	6-7	86%	5-9	56%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	36.1	25	50%	5	5	1	0	3	1	2	3	3-3	100%	5-11	45%	4-13	31%
Evan Mobley #4 · C · 6'11" 215 · 25	31.6	18	60%	13	4	0	2	0	5	5	8	2-7	29%	8-11	73%	0-2	0%
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	30.2	13	72%	4	2	1	0	0	4	1	3	1-2	50%	3-3	100%	2-5	40%
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	20.0	0	0%	5	0	0	1	1	1	0	5	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%

Keon Ellis #14 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	31.1	20	91%	4	1	1	1	0	2	1	3	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	5-8	63%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	18.6	12	67%	5	0	0	1	0	1	3	2	3-3	100%	3-4	75%	1-4	25%
Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 32	17.8	0	0%	0	2	0	0	0	4	0	0	0-0	-	0-4	0%	0-1	0%
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	17.7	4	40%	1	2	0	0	1	3	0	1	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quadricep; Strain
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Surgery - Jones Fracture
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendonitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	122	60%	42	24	3	5	9	22	12	30	17-26	65%	27-45	60%	17-44	39%

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16 Orlando Magic

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Paolo Banchero #5 · PF · 6'10" 250 · 23	37.0	25	57%	8	7	0	0	2	1	0	8	7-9	78%	6-12	50%	2-6	33%
Desmond Bane #3 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 28	35.7	35	80%	6	6	1	0	0	5	1	5	9-10	90%	10-16	63%	2-3	67%
Wendell Carter Jr. #34 · C · 6'10" 270 · 27	35.4	11	55%	11	4	0	1	0	4	3	8	2-6	33%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Tristan da Silva #23 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	34.3	23	77%	4	3	0	1	0	2	0	4	4-5	80%	5-5	100%	3-8	38%
Jalen Suggs #4 · PG · 6'5" 205 · 25	31.8	12	60%	2	4	3	0	2	3	0	2	3-3	100%	3-4	75%	1-5	20%

Jett Howard #13 · SF · 6'8" 215 · 22	22.0	8	80%	4	1	0	1	1	4	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-3	67%
Jevon Carter #2 · PG · 6'0" 190 · 30	20.2	9	56%	0	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	1-5	20%
Moritz Wagner #21 · C · 6'11" 245 · 29	12.6	1	13%	5	1	1	0	1	1	2	3	1-2	50%	0-3	0%	0-0	-
Noah Penda #93 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 21	11.0	4	50%	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Jonathan Isaac #1 · PF · 6'10" 230 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Goga Bitadze #35 · C · 6'11" 250 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jase Richardson #11 · SG · 6'1" 180 · 20	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Morales #30 · PG · 6'6" 180 · 28	INACTIVE
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 27	INACTIVE
Colin Castleton #14 · C · 6'10" 250 · 26	INACTIVE
Anthony Black #0 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Lateral Abdominal; Strain
Franz Wagner #22 · SF · 6'10" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left High Ankle; Sprain injury management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	63%	42	29	6	4	6	23	8	34	28-37	76%	32-50	64%	12-35	34%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	CLE	ORL
Clock	Team	Event	CLE	ORL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

CLE

1.20 59.8%

ORL

1.25 62.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CLE

75%

ORL

81%

Midrange

CLE

35%

ORL

46%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CLE

25.5

39%

58%

ORL

18.0

34%

51%

Free Throws

CLE

65%

ORL

76%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Harden	30	83%	15.0 / 18
D. Mitchell	25	50%	12.5 / 25
K. Ellis	20	91%	10.0 / 11
E. Mobley	18	60%	9.0 / 15
S. Merrill	13	72%	6.5 / 9
T. Bryant	12	67%	6.0 / 9
J. Tyson	4	40%	2.0 / 5
D. Wade	0	-	0.0 / 2
D. Schröder	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Magic

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Bane	35	80%	17.5 / 22
P. Banchero	25	57%	12.5 / 22
T. da Silva	23	77%	11.5 / 15
J. Suggs	12	60%	6.0 / 10
W. Carter	11	55%	5.5 / 10
J. Carter	9	56%	4.5 / 8
J. Howard	8	80%	4.0 / 5
N. Penda	4	50%	2.0 / 4
M. Wagner	1	13%	0.5 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	6 118.3 17 114.3	CLE 128.4 ORL 133.3 +4.9
Pace	12 100.6 14 100.5	CLE 91.3 ORL 100.0 +8.7
Avg. Poss. Time	21 14.1 17 14.2	CLE 15.8 ORL 14.4 −1.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	5 56.1% 26 53.0%	CLE 59.0% +0.2% ORL 58.8%
TO %	10 13.2% 12 13.5%	CLE 9.1% ORL 5.6% −3.5%
ORB %	9 26.9% 18 25.0%	CLE 26.1% +5.0% ORL 21.1%
FTrt	15 26.5 2 31.1	CLE 29.2 ORL 43.5 +14.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 65.3% 12 64.7%	CLE 54.5% ORL 65.9% +11.4%
STL %	15 8.4% 16 8.4%	CLE 3.2% ORL 6.3% +3.1%
BLK %	11 9.8% 17 8.8%	CLE 10.0% +1.1% ORL 8.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	5 58.2% 19 56.3%	CLE 59.8% ORL 62.7% +2.9%
Rim FG%	7 66.1% 24 63.0%	CLE 75.0% ORL 80.8% +5.8%
Mid FG%	3 46.8% 24 41.5%	CLE 35.3% ORL 45.8% +10.5%
3P %	13 36.0% 27 34.3%	CLE 38.6% +4.3% ORL 34.3%
FT %	19 77.6% 8 80.1%	CLE 65.4% ORL 75.7% +10.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	14 31.7% 4 35.7%	CLE 31.5% +0.9% ORL 30.6%
Mid Att. %	8 24.1% 12 25.7%	CLE 19.1% −9.1% ORL 28.2%
3P Att. %	9 44.2% 24 38.6%	CLE 49.4% +8.3% ORL 41.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	CLE	ORL
Possessions	95	96
Possession Minutes	25.0	23.0
Points	122	128
Rebounds	42	42
Assists	24	29
Steals	3	6
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	9 (1)	6 (0)
Fouls	22	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	8 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (3)	34 (2)
Field Goals	44-89	44-85
At-the-Rim FG	21-28	21-26
Midrange FG	6-17	11-24
2-Point FG	27-45	32-50
3-Point FG	17-44	12-35
Free Throws	17-26	28-37
Fast Break Pts	14	19
2nd Chance Pts	13	17
Points in Paint	50	56
Pts off Turnovers	12	12
Bench Points	36	22
Biggest Lead	4	13

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg