Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	7	Rockets	35%	112	93	93.0	100	91.5
	2	Nuggets	65%	116	129	131.6	98	108.1

Prediction updated: Mar 12, 2026 01:42 AM

Scoring Opportunities

HOU

+25

-15

110

DEN

-9

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

0.86 43.1%

DEN

1.32 65.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

7 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	30.2	16	57%	5	4	1	0	2	2	1	4	0-1	0%	8-13	62%	0-1	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 23	27.9	11	55%	7	2	1	0	1	4	1	6	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-2	50%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	26.1	11	69%	4	5	0	0	3	2	0	4	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	24.2	10	50%	2	3	0	3	2	2	1	1	0-4	0%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	21.6	8	44%	8	2	1	0	1	0	2	6	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-4	0%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	27.1	9	38%	2	2	2	1	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-9	11%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	23.8	9	56%	7	0	1	1	2	2	6	1	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 28	23.6	12	50%	4	3	1	1	0	2	3	1	0-2	0%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	16.0	2	10%	1	3	0	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	1-6	17%	0-4	0%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	12.0	5	36%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	7.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	NWT - Not With Team
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	43%	44	25	7	6	15	18	16	28	5-14	36%	38-64	59%	4-33	12%

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7 Houston Rockets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Amen Thompson #1 · PG · 6'7" 200 · 23	30.2	16	57%	5	4	1	0	2	2	1	4	0-1	0%	8-13	62%	0-1	0%
Jabari Smith Jr. #10 · SF · 6'11" 220 · 23	27.9	11	55%	7	2	1	0	1	4	1	6	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-2	50%
Kevin Durant #7 · PF · 6'11" 240 · 37	26.1	11	69%	4	5	0	0	3	2	0	4	1-1	100%	5-6	83%	0-2	0%
Alperen Sengun #28 · C · 6'11" 243 · 24	24.2	10	50%	2	3	0	3	2	2	1	1	0-4	0%	5-7	71%	0-1	0%
Tari Eason #17 · SG · 6'8" 215 · 25	21.6	8	44%	8	2	1	0	1	0	2	6	0-0	-	4-5	80%	0-4	0%

Reed Sheppard #15 · PG · 6'2" 185 · 22	27.1	9	38%	2	2	2	1	3	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	1-9	11%
Clint Capela #30 · C · 6'10" 256 · 32	23.8	9	56%	7	0	1	1	2	2	6	1	1-2	50%	4-7	57%	0-0	-
Josh Okogie #20 · SG · 6'4" 213 · 28	23.6	12	50%	4	3	1	1	0	2	3	1	0-2	0%	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Aaron Holiday #0 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 29	16.0	2	10%	1	3	0	0	1	2	1	0	0-0	-	1-6	17%	0-4	0%
Isaiah Crawford #27 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 24	12.0	5	36%	3	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	3-4	75%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Jeff Green #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 40	7.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-3	0%
Dorian Finney-Smith #2 · PF · 6'7" 220 · 33	NWT - Not With Team
JD Davison #4 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	INACTIVE
Tristen Newton #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Steven Adams #12 · C · 6'11" 265 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery
Fred VanVleet #5 · PG · 6'0" 197 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; ACL Repair
Jae'Sean Tate #8 · SF · 6'4" 230 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	93	43%	44	25	7	6	15	18	16	28	5-14	36%	38-64	59%	4-33	12%

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2 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	31.4	30	63%	2	4	1	0	1	0	0	2	5-6	83%	8-17	47%	3-4	75%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	30.4	16	57%	12	13	5	1	5	2	4	8	4-5	80%	6-10	60%	0-2	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	26.1	19	95%	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	4	0-0	-	5-6	83%	3-4	75%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	24.8	17	85%	2	4	2	2	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	22.5	0	0%	4	1	0	1	0	0	1	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-2	0%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	21.1	14	78%	3	1	0	0	1	3	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	4-6	67%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	19.7	7	50%	1	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	19.7	0	0%	3	2	2	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	11.7	12	100%	5	3	0	0	0	4	2	3	0-0	-	6-6	100%	0-0	-
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	7.5	6	100%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-2	100%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	7.5	2	50%	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-1	0%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	5.8	1	17%	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	5.8	3	75%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	5.8	2	50%	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	3	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	129	66%	42	36	12	4	9	15	8	34	16-22	73%	31-55	56%	17-32	53%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	HOU	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

HOU

0.86 43.1%

DEN

1.32 65.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

HOU

67%

DEN

71%

Midrange

HOU

50%

DEN

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

HOU

6.0

12%

18%

DEN

25.5

53%

80%

Free Throws

HOU

36%

DEN

73%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Rockets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
A. Thompson	16	57%	8.0 / 14
J. Okogie	12	50%	6.0 / 12
J. Smith	11	55%	5.5 / 10
K. Durant	11	69%	5.5 / 8
A. Sengun	10	50%	5.0 / 10
R. Sheppard	9	38%	4.5 / 12
C. Capela	9	56%	4.5 / 8
T. Eason	8	44%	4.0 / 9
I. Crawford	5	36%	2.5 / 7
A. Holiday	2	10%	1.0 / 10
J. Green	0	-	0.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	30	63%	15.0 / 24
C. Braun	19	95%	9.5 / 10
C. Johnson	17	85%	8.5 / 10
N. Jokić	16	57%	8.0 / 14
T. Hardaway	14	78%	7.0 / 9
J. Valančiūnas	12	100%	6.0 / 6
B. Brown	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Strawther	6	100%	3.0 / 3
J. Pickett	3	75%	1.5 / 2
T. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2
D. Roddy	2	50%	1.0 / 2
Z. Nnaji	1	17%	0.5 / 3
A. Gordon	0	-	0.0 / 3
S. Jones	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	8 117.5 1 121.3	HOU 93.0 DEN 131.6 +38.6
Pace	29 96.9 19 99.4	HOU 91.5 DEN 108.1 +16.6
Avg. Poss. Time	1 15.8 9 14.7	HOU 15.7 DEN 13.3 −2.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	17 54.2% 1 57.7%	HOU 45.4% DEN 64.9% +19.5%
TO %	25 14.7% 3 12.1%	HOU 13.4% DEN 9.4% −4.0%
ORB %	1 34.8% 24 23.6%	HOU 32.0% +9.8% DEN 22.2%
FTrt	18 26.0 4 29.4	HOU 14.4 DEN 25.3 +10.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	27 59.1% 9 66.5%	HOU 59.5% DEN 75.0% +15.5%
STL %	9 8.7% 30 6.8%	HOU 7.0% DEN 12.2% +5.2%
BLK %	4 10.9% 29 7.6%	HOU 10.9% +4.6% DEN 6.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.81 and 2.81.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	20 56.1% 1 60.1%	HOU 43.1% DEN 65.8% +22.7%
Rim FG%	13 64.8% 12 65.1%	HOU 66.7% DEN 70.8% +4.1%
Mid FG%	9 44.3% 2 47.0%	HOU 50.0% +4.8% DEN 45.2%
3P %	10 36.4% 1 39.6%	HOU 12.1% DEN 53.1% +41.0%
FT %	25 76.3% 5 80.8%	HOU 35.7% DEN 72.7% +37.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	20 30.7% 19 31.1%	HOU 37.1% +9.5% DEN 27.6%
Mid Att. %	29 34.2% 21 28.1%	HOU 28.9% −6.8% DEN 35.6%
3P Att. %	28 35.0% 17 40.8%	HOU 34.0% DEN 36.8% +2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	HOU	DEN
Possessions	100	98
Possession Minutes	26.2	21.8
Points	93	129
Rebounds	44	42
Assists	25	36
Steals	7	12
Blocks	6	4
Turnovers (Team)	15 (1)	9 (1)
Fouls	18	15
Off. Rebounds (Team)	16 (9)	8 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (4)	34 (3)
Field Goals	42-97	48-87
At-the-Rim FG	24-36	17-24
Midrange FG	14-28	14-31
2-Point FG	38-64	31-55
3-Point FG	4-33	17-32
Free Throws	5-14	16-22
Fast Break Pts	12	24
2nd Chance Pts	15	12
Points in Paint	70	52
Pts off Turnovers	10	18
Bench Points	37	47
Biggest Lead	5	39

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg