Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	5	Nuggets	39%	115	136	127.1	107	110.0
	8	Spurs	61%	119	131	120.2	109	106.1

Prediction updated: Mar 13, 2026 01:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

-10

105

SAS

+17

-10

116

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.30 64.8%

SAS

1.16 58.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	39.9	39	72%	2	7	1	0	4	2	0	2	15-15	100%	9-15	60%	2-6	33%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	39.0	31	70%	20	12	3	2	3	3	3	17	11-11	100%	7-11	64%	2-6	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	37.7	11	42%	9	2	1	0	1	3	0	9	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Spencer Jones #21 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 25	32.8	19	73%	4	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	0-0	-	5-7	71%	3-6	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	30.8	15	83%	5	1	0	0	0	2	2	3	2-2	100%	5-6	83%	1-2	50%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	18.8	1	10%	2	1	0	0	2	4	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	17.4	6	50%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	15.3	10	83%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-4	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	5.3	4	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	3.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	65%	47	27	8	4	10	20	7	40	36-38	95%	32-52	62%	12-36	33%

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5 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	39.9	39	72%	2	7	1	0	4	2	0	2	15-15	100%	9-15	60%	2-6	33%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	39.0	31	70%	20	12	3	2	3	3	3	17	11-11	100%	7-11	64%	2-6	33%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	37.7	11	42%	9	2	1	0	1	3	0	9	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	2-7	29%
Spencer Jones #21 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 25	32.8	19	73%	4	2	2	2	0	2	2	2	0-0	-	5-7	71%	3-6	50%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	30.8	15	83%	5	1	0	0	0	2	2	3	2-2	100%	5-6	83%	1-2	50%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	18.8	1	10%	2	1	0	0	2	4	0	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	17.4	6	50%	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-2	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	15.3	10	83%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	2-2	100%	2-4	50%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	5.3	4	50%	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	2	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	3.1	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	65%	47	27	8	4	10	20	7	40	36-38	95%	32-52	62%	12-36	33%

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8 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	36.0	27	61%	3	9	2	0	4	5	1	2	3-6	50%	6-9	67%	4-10	40%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	35.4	30	71%	11	10	0	0	2	3	3	8	12-13	92%	3-7	43%	4-8	50%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	31.9	18	56%	1	3	2	0	1	2	0	1	4-5	80%	1-4	25%	4-10	40%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	24.7	0	0%	3	0	1	2	0	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	22.9	8	57%	7	1	0	0	1	2	0	7	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%

Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	27.0	20	77%	7	1	1	0	1	1	2	5	6-7	86%	4-5	80%	2-5	40%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	23.6	13	54%	5	5	0	1	1	3	1	4	0-0	-	5-9	56%	1-3	33%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.9	5	21%	7	3	0	1	0	3	2	5	0-0	-	1-7	14%	1-5	20%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	9.0	10	83%	3	1	0	0	0	2	1	2	1-1	100%	3-4	75%	1-2	50%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	7.7	0	0%	2	1	2	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	131	58%	49	34	8	4	10	25	12	37	26-32	81%	24-48	50%	19-47	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.30 64.8%

SAS

1.16 58.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

59%

SAS

57%

Midrange

DEN

64%

SAS

40%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

18.0

33%

50%

SAS

28.5

40%

61%

Free Throws

DEN

95%

SAS

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	39	72%	19.5 / 27
N. Jokić	31	70%	15.5 / 22
S. Jones	19	73%	9.5 / 13
C. Johnson	15	83%	7.5 / 9
C. Braun	11	42%	5.5 / 13
J. Strawther	10	83%	5.0 / 6
B. Brown	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Valančiūnas	4	50%	2.0 / 4
T. Hardaway	1	10%	0.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Castle	30	71%	15.0 / 21
D. Fox	27	61%	13.5 / 22
H. Barnes	20	77%	10.0 / 13
D. Vassell	18	56%	9.0 / 16
D. Harper	13	54%	6.5 / 12
C. Bryant	10	83%	5.0 / 6
J. Champagnie	8	57%	4.0 / 7
K. Johnson	5	21%	2.5 / 12
L. Kornet	0	-	0.0 / 0

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 3 118.9	DEN 127.1 +6.9 SAS 120.2
Pace	19 99.4 13 100.5	DEN 110.0 +3.8 SAS 106.1
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 18 14.2	DEN 13.1 −0.5 SAS 13.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 7 55.9%	DEN 56.8% +1.5% SAS 55.3%
TO %	3 12.1% 4 12.5%	DEN 8.7% SAS 8.4% −0.3%
ORB %	24 23.6% 10 26.2%	DEN 15.9% SAS 23.1% +7.2%
FTrt	4 29.4 12 27.3	DEN 43.2 +9.5 SAS 33.7
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 13 64.6%	DEN 61.4% SAS 79.1% +17.7%
STL %	30 6.8% 24 7.5%	DEN 7.5% +0.2% SAS 7.3%
BLK %	29 7.6% 10 10.0%	DEN 8.3% +0.6% SAS 7.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 6 58.1%	DEN 64.8% +6.8% SAS 58.0%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 9 65.8%	DEN 59.3% +2.2% SAS 57.1%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 5 45.1%	DEN 64.0% +24.0% SAS 40.0%
3P %	1 39.6% 15 35.9%	DEN 33.3% SAS 40.4% +7.1%
FT %	5 80.8% 12 78.7%	DEN 94.7% +13.4% SAS 81.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 7 34.4%	DEN 30.7% +1.2% SAS 29.5%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 7 23.4%	DEN 28.4% SAS 21.1% −7.4%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 15 42.2%	DEN 40.9% SAS 49.5% +8.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	SAS
Possessions	107	109
Possession Minutes	23.4	24.6
Points	136	131
Rebounds	47	49
Assists	27	34
Steals	8	8
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	20	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	7 (1)	12 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	40 (1)	37 (0)
Field Goals	44-88	43-95
At-the-Rim FG	16-27	16-28
Midrange FG	16-25	8-20
2-Point FG	32-52	24-48
3-Point FG	12-36	19-47
Free Throws	36-38	26-32
Fast Break Pts	13	9
2nd Chance Pts	15	21
Points in Paint	56	42
Pts off Turnovers	7	15
Bench Points	21	48
Biggest Lead	9	20

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg