Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 16, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Spurs	71%	115	119	121.4	98	96.4
	19	Clippers	29%	108	115	116.2	99	100.7

Prediction updated: Mar 17, 2026 02:02 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+24

-14

108

LAC

+19

-13

105

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.11 55.6%

LAC

1.12 55.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	36.3	23	55%	7	8	1	0	3	5	7	0	4-6	67%	8-15	53%	1-4	25%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	35.4	20	77%	3	4	1	0	0	3	0	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	4-7	57%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	33.9	21	50%	13	2	1	4	3	0	1	12	1-3	33%	7-11	64%	2-9	22%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	29.5	18	60%	3	6	0	2	2	2	1	2	6-6	100%	6-8	75%	0-4	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	28.8	7	44%	8	1	2	1	3	2	4	4	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.9	8	40%	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	4-9	44%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.7	10	71%	5	1	0	0	0	4	2	3	6-7	86%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	17.8	8	57%	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	9.7	3	75%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	5.9	1	50%	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	56%	52	25	5	7	14	23	22	30	23-29	79%	33-57	58%	10-36	28%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Stephon Castle #5 · PG · 6'6" 215 · 21	36.3	23	55%	7	8	1	0	3	5	7	0	4-6	67%	8-15	53%	1-4	25%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	35.4	20	77%	3	4	1	0	0	3	0	3	4-4	100%	2-4	50%	4-7	57%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	33.9	21	50%	13	2	1	4	3	0	1	12	1-3	33%	7-11	64%	2-9	22%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 28	29.5	18	60%	3	6	0	2	2	2	1	2	6-6	100%	6-8	75%	0-4	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	28.8	7	44%	8	1	2	1	3	2	4	4	1-1	100%	3-5	60%	0-3	0%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	21.9	8	40%	5	0	0	0	2	1	1	4	0-0	-	4-9	44%	0-1	0%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.7	10	71%	5	1	0	0	0	4	2	3	6-7	86%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	17.8	8	57%	3	2	0	0	1	3	2	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	9.7	3	75%	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	5.9	1	50%	3	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	119	56%	52	25	5	7	14	23	22	30	23-29	79%	33-57	58%	10-36	28%

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19 LA Clippers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Darius Garland #10 · PG · 6'1" 192 · 26	32.1	25	57%	2	10	2	0	8	3	1	1	3-3	100%	5-12	42%	4-9	44%
John Collins #20 · PF · 6'9" 226 · 28	25.5	11	55%	9	4	1	0	1	3	3	6	3-5	60%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Derrick Jones Jr. #5 · SF · 6'6" 210 · 29	23.8	10	38%	3	1	0	1	0	0	0	3	0-1	0%	2-7	29%	2-6	33%
Brook Lopez #11 · C · 7'1" 282 · 38	23.6	3	75%	1	1	1	2	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Kris Dunn #8 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 32	22.9	9	75%	2	1	1	1	1	3	1	1	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-3	67%

Bennedict Mathurin #9 · SF · 6'5" 210 · 24	34.3	16	53%	4	3	2	0	2	5	1	3	6-6	100%	5-8	63%	0-4	0%
Jordan Miller #22 · SF · 6'5" 194 · 26	26.3	22	85%	9	3	0	0	0	1	4	5	1-1	100%	9-12	75%	1-1	100%
Kobe Sanders #4 · SG · 6'8" 207 · 24	16.9	5	50%	2	2	2	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-2	50%
Isaiah Jackson #23 · C · 6'8" 205 · 24	16.6	11	79%	1	0	1	1	1	3	0	1	3-4	75%	4-5	80%	0-0	-
Nicolas Batum #33 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 37	11.6	0	0%	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Cam Christie #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 21	6.5	3	30%	1	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	1-3	33%	0-1	0%
Bogdan Bogdanović #7 · SG · 6'5" 225 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
TyTy Washington Jr. #15 · PG · 6'3" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Sean Pedulla #00 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Norchad Omier #55 · PF · 6'7" 248 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Yanic Konan Niederhäuser #14 · C · 6'11" 242 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Lisfranc Ligament; Tear
Kawhi Leonard #2 · SF · 6'6" 225 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Bradley Beal #0 · SG · 6'4" 207 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	115	56%	37	25	11	5	13	23	12	25	18-24	75%	32-60	53%	11-29	38%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	LAC
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	LAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.11 55.6%

LAC

1.12 55.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

71%

LAC

67%

Midrange

SAS

25%

LAC

29%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

15.0

28%

42%

LAC

16.5

38%

57%

Free Throws

SAS

79%

LAC

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Castle	23	55%	11.5 / 21
V. Wembanyama	21	50%	10.5 / 21
D. Vassell	20	77%	10.0 / 13
D. Fox	18	60%	9.0 / 15
C. Bryant	10	71%	5.0 / 7
K. Johnson	8	40%	4.0 / 10
H. Barnes	8	57%	4.0 / 7
J. Champagnie	7	44%	3.5 / 8
J. McLaughlin	3	75%	1.5 / 2
M. Plumlee	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Clippers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Garland	25	57%	12.5 / 22
J. Miller	22	85%	11.0 / 13
B. Mathurin	16	53%	8.0 / 15
J. Collins	11	55%	5.5 / 10
I. Jackson	11	79%	5.5 / 7
D. Jones	10	38%	5.0 / 13
K. Dunn	9	75%	4.5 / 6
K. Sanders	5	50%	2.5 / 5
B. Lopez	3	75%	1.5 / 2
C. Christie	3	30%	1.5 / 5
N. Batum	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 11 116.4	SAS 121.4 +5.3 LAC 116.2
Pace	13 100.5 28 97.3	SAS 96.4 LAC 100.7 +4.2
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 5 15.0	SAS 14.9 LAC 14.3 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 8 55.9%	SAS 51.6% LAC 54.5% +2.9%
TO %	4 12.5% 17 13.9%	SAS 12.4% LAC 12.3% −0.1%
ORB %	10 26.2% 23 23.7%	SAS 46.8% +18.2% LAC 28.6%
FTrt	12 27.3 3 29.5	SAS 31.2 +4.2 LAC 27.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 29 58.6%	SAS 58.1% LAC 58.1%
STL %	24 7.5% 5 9.2%	SAS 5.1% LAC 11.1% +6.0%
BLK %	10 10.0% 13 9.5%	SAS 11.7% +2.9% LAC 8.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 3 58.7%	SAS 55.6% LAC 55.8% +0.2%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 3 67.1%	SAS 70.7% +4.0% LAC 66.7%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 10 44.2%	SAS 25.0% LAC 28.6% +3.6%
3P %	15 35.9% 7 36.8%	SAS 27.8% LAC 37.9% +10.1%
FT %	12 78.7% 1 82.3%	SAS 79.3% +4.3% LAC 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 15 31.6%	SAS 44.1% +0.3% LAC 43.8%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 20 27.9%	SAS 17.2% −6.4% LAC 23.6%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 19 40.4%	SAS 38.7% +6.1% LAC 32.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	LAC
Possessions	98	99
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	119	115
Rebounds	52	37
Assists	25	25
Steals	5	11
Blocks	7	5
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	23	23
Off. Rebounds (Team)	22 (2)	12 (7)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	30 (3)	25 (5)
Field Goals	43-93	43-89
At-the-Rim FG	29-41	26-39
Midrange FG	4-16	6-21
2-Point FG	33-57	32-60
3-Point FG	10-36	11-29
Free Throws	23-29	18-24
Fast Break Pts	2	12
2nd Chance Pts	25	21
Points in Paint	64	62
Pts off Turnovers	15	19
Bench Points	30	57
Biggest Lead	24	14

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg