Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	16	Heat	36%	115	106	101.0	105	109.1
	8	Hornets	64%	120	136	128.3	106	102.1

Prediction updated: Mar 17, 2026 10:56 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+16

-15

106

CHA

+14

-13

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.99 49.5%

CHA

1.28 64.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	30.9	20	67%	8	5	1	0	4	0	1	7	9-9	100%	4-9	44%	1-2	50%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	30.6	17	43%	6	3	0	1	0	3	1	5	2-6	33%	6-13	46%	1-4	25%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	27.9	7	32%	8	1	0	1	0	0	2	6	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-6	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.7	14	64%	2	0	0	0	4	5	2	0	7-8	88%	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	26.4	4	29%	3	5	0	0	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-3	0%

Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	23.5	10	45%	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	2	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	1-6	17%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	20.1	15	63%	5	1	3	1	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-9	33%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	19.9	6	75%	1	6	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	14.9	6	43%	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	8.0	4	67%	3	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.9	0	0%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	3.9	3	75%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Tightness
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Sesamoiditis
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	50%	43	26	4	3	15	22	12	31	27-34	79%	29-53	55%	7-36	19%

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16 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	30.9	20	67%	8	5	1	0	4	0	1	7	9-9	100%	4-9	44%	1-2	50%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	30.6	17	43%	6	3	0	1	0	3	1	5	2-6	33%	6-13	46%	1-4	25%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	27.9	7	32%	8	1	0	1	0	0	2	6	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	0-6	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 25	27.7	14	64%	2	0	0	0	4	5	2	0	7-8	88%	2-5	40%	1-2	50%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	26.4	4	29%	3	5	0	0	1	2	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	0-3	0%

Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	23.5	10	45%	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	2	3-4	75%	2-3	67%	1-6	17%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	20.1	15	63%	5	1	3	1	2	2	1	4	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-9	33%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	19.9	6	75%	1	6	0	0	1	1	0	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	14.9	6	43%	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	2-4	50%	0-2	0%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	8.0	4	67%	3	2	0	0	1	1	3	0	0-0	-	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.9	0	0%	3	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	3.9	3	75%	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Tightness
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Sesamoiditis
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	106	50%	43	26	4	3	15	22	12	31	27-34	79%	29-53	55%	7-36	19%

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8 Charlotte Hornets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
LaMelo Ball #1 · PG · 6'7" 180 · 25	33.1	30	65%	6	13	1	0	5	2	1	5	4-5	80%	7-10	70%	4-12	33%
Miles Bridges #0 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 28	31.4	14	58%	10	2	1	1	1	0	0	10	0-0	-	4-8	50%	2-4	50%
Moussa Diabaté #14 · C · 6'10" 210 · 24	31.1	8	67%	13	4	2	1	2	3	5	8	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Brandon Miller #24 · SG · 6'7" 200 · 23	26.4	16	53%	2	2	2	0	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	2-9	22%	4-6	67%
Kon Knueppel #7 · SF · 6'6" 215 · 21	23.6	22	73%	2	2	2	1	0	5	0	2	4-4	100%	6-8	75%	2-6	33%

Coby White #3 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 26	20.4	24	71%	3	3	0	0	0	4	0	3	5-6	83%	5-6	83%	3-9	33%
Grant Williams #2 · PF · 6'7" 236 · 27	18.9	8	100%	2	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	1-1	100%
Sion James #4 · SG · 6'5" 220 · 23	17.9	2	50%	4	2	0	0	2	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Ryan Kalkbrenner #11 · C · 7'1" 256 · 24	14.4	6	75%	3	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Josh Green #10 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 25	14.4	0	0%	2	0	1	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Tre Mann #23 · PG · 6'4" 178 · 25	3.5	2	50%	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Pat Connaughton #21 · SG · 6'5" 209 · 33	2.4	4	100%	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Xavier Tillman #26 · C · 6'8" 245 · 27	2.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Liam McNeeley #33 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Antonio Reeves #12 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PJ Hall #16 · C · 6'8" 245 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tosan Evbuomwan #8 · SF · 6'8" 217 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tidjane Salaün #31 · PF · 6'10" 207 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Calf; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	64%	48	32	11	3	13	25	10	38	17-21	81%	34-54	63%	17-42	40%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CHA
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CHA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.99 49.5%

CHA

1.28 64.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

60%

CHA

69%

Midrange

MIA

48%

CHA

53%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

10.5

19%

29%

CHA

25.5

40%

61%

Free Throws

MIA

79%

CHA

81%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	20	67%	10.0 / 15
N. Powell	17	43%	8.5 / 20
K. Johnson	15	63%	7.5 / 12
P. Larsson	14	64%	7.0 / 11
S. Fontecchio	10	45%	5.0 / 11
K. Ware	7	32%	3.5 / 11
J. Jaquez	6	75%	3.0 / 4
K. Jakučionis	6	43%	3.0 / 7
D. Mitchell	4	29%	2.0 / 7
D. Smith	4	67%	2.0 / 3
J. Young	3	75%	1.5 / 2
M. Gardner	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hornets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
L. Ball	30	65%	15.0 / 23
C. White	24	71%	12.0 / 17
K. Knueppel	22	73%	11.0 / 15
B. Miller	16	53%	8.0 / 15
M. Bridges	14	58%	7.0 / 12
M. Diabaté	8	67%	4.0 / 6
G. Williams	8	100%	4.0 / 4
R. Kalkbrenner	6	75%	3.0 / 4
P. Connaughton	4	100%	2.0 / 2
S. James	2	50%	1.0 / 2
T. Mann	2	50%	1.0 / 2
J. Green	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 5 118.6	MIA 101.0 CHA 128.3 +27.3
Pace	1 104.3 27 97.5	MIA 109.1 +7.0 CHA 102.1
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 3 15.2	MIA 13.2 −0.9 CHA 14.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 12 55.2%	MIA 44.4% CHA 62.0% +17.6%
TO %	5 12.6% 27 14.8%	MIA 12.6% CHA 11.7% −0.9%
ORB %	17 25.4% 4 30.5%	MIA 24.0% CHA 24.4% +0.4%
FTrt	14 26.8 23 24.4	MIA 38.2 +16.3 CHA 21.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 14 64.3%	MIA 72.2% +9.5% CHA 62.7%
STL %	17 8.3% 29 7.2%	MIA 3.8% CHA 10.4% +6.6%
BLK %	28 7.9% 20 8.6%	MIA 5.6% CHA 5.7% +0.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 10 57.3%	MIA 49.5% CHA 64.2% +14.7%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 23 63.1%	MIA 60.0% CHA 68.6% +8.6%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 25 41.4%	MIA 47.8% CHA 52.6% +4.8%
3P %	11 36.1% 3 37.8%	MIA 19.4% CHA 40.5% +21.1%
FT %	11 79.2% 2 81.8%	MIA 79.4% CHA 81.0% +1.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 25 29.3%	MIA 33.7% CHA 36.5% +2.8%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 6 22.0%	MIA 25.8% CHA 19.8% −6.1%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 2 48.7%	MIA 40.4% CHA 43.8% +3.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	CHA
Possessions	105	106
Possession Minutes	23.1	24.9
Points	106	136
Rebounds	43	48
Assists	26	32
Steals	4	11
Blocks	3	3
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	13 (1)
Fouls	22	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	10 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (2)	38 (1)
Field Goals	36-89	51-96
At-the-Rim FG	18-30	24-35
Midrange FG	11-23	10-19
2-Point FG	29-53	34-54
3-Point FG	7-36	17-42
Free Throws	27-34	17-21
Fast Break Pts	10	11
2nd Chance Pts	18	16
Points in Paint	56	62
Pts off Turnovers	19	16
Bench Points	44	46
Biggest Lead	4	30

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg