Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	6	Cavaliers	80%	120	123	129.5	95	96.8
	24	Bucks	20%	109	116	120.8	96	94.2

Prediction updated: Mar 17, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

CLE

+13

-6

102

MIL

+13

-8

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

CLE

1.21 60.3%

MIL

1.17 58.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

6 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	33.9	19	48%	8	3	1	1	0	4	0	8	10-13	77%	3-10	30%	1-4	25%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	33.5	27	90%	5	6	2	0	2	4	1	4	11-13	85%	5-6	83%	2-4	50%
Evan Mobley #4 · C · 6'11" 215 · 25	33.0	27	59%	15	2	0	3	0	2	6	9	3-5	60%	12-19	63%	0-2	0%
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	28.0	17	65%	6	2	0	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	3-8	38%
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	24.9	9	56%	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-4	25%

Keon Ellis #14 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	24.3	8	100%	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	23.1	6	50%	6	4	0	0	1	5	1	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-6	33%
Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 33	15.8	3	75%	1	5	0	0	1	0	1	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	13.2	2	20%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	10.3	5	63%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Strain
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quadricep; Strain
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendonitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	60%	46	27	3	4	6	20	10	36	27-34	79%	30-50	60%	12-36	33%

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6 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	33.9	19	48%	8	3	1	1	0	4	0	8	10-13	77%	3-10	30%	1-4	25%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	33.5	27	90%	5	6	2	0	2	4	1	4	11-13	85%	5-6	83%	2-4	50%
Evan Mobley #4 · C · 6'11" 215 · 25	33.0	27	59%	15	2	0	3	0	2	6	9	3-5	60%	12-19	63%	0-2	0%
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	28.0	17	65%	6	2	0	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	3-8	38%
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	24.9	9	56%	2	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-4	25%

Keon Ellis #14 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	24.3	8	100%	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	2-2	100%
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	23.1	6	50%	6	4	0	0	1	5	1	5	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-6	33%
Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 33	15.8	3	75%	1	5	0	0	1	0	1	0	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	13.2	2	20%	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	10.3	5	63%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Strain
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Quadricep; Strain
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendonitis
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	60%	46	27	3	4	6	20	10	36	27-34	79%	30-50	60%	12-36	33%

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24 Milwaukee Bucks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Ryan Rollins #13 · SG · 6'3" 180 · 24	33.9	19	63%	3	4	0	1	1	5	1	2	4-4	100%	3-6	50%	3-7	43%
Kevin Porter Jr. #7 · PG · 6'5" 203 · 26	32.5	25	66%	3	10	0	2	1	3	1	2	8-8	100%	7-11	64%	1-4	25%
Taurean Prince #12 · SF · 6'6" 218 · 32	22.6	8	57%	2	1	0	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-4	50%
Kyle Kuzma #18 · PF · 6'8" 221 · 31	16.9	3	25%	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-4	25%
Jericho Sims #00 · C · 6'10" 250 · 27	15.9	4	67%	6	0	0	0	1	3	2	4	0-1	0%	2-3	67%	0-0	-

Bobby Portis #9 · PF · 6'9" 250 · 31	32.7	19	50%	9	4	1	0	1	0	0	9	0-0	-	5-12	42%	3-7	43%
Ousmane Dieng #21 · C · 6'9" 185 · 23	29.7	19	73%	5	1	1	0	2	4	0	5	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	5-8	63%
Pete Nance #35 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 26	29.7	13	93%	7	1	0	2	0	1	2	5	0-2	0%	2-2	100%	3-4	75%
AJ Green #20 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 26	26.1	6	43%	4	1	1	0	1	2	1	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-7	29%
Gary Harris #11 · SG · 6'4" 210 · 32	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cam Thomas #24 · SG · 6'3" 210 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Gary Trent Jr. #5 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Andre Jackson Jr. #44 · SG · 6'6" 209 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Thanasis Antetokounmpo #43 · SF · 6'7" 219 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cormac Ryan #30 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 27	DNP – Coach's Decision
Alex Antetokounmpo #29 · SF · 6'8" 214 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Myles Turner #3 · C · 6'11" 250 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 · PF · 6'11" 243 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Hyperextension; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	116	59%	39	24	3	6	8	22	7	32	12-17	71%	22-43	51%	20-45	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	CLE	MIL
Clock	Team	Event	CLE	MIL

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

CLE

1.21 60.3%

MIL

1.17 58.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

CLE

68%

MIL

69%

Midrange

CLE

44%

MIL

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

CLE

18.0

33%

50%

MIL

30.0

44%

67%

Free Throws

CLE

79%

MIL

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Harden	27	90%	13.5 / 15
E. Mobley	27	59%	13.5 / 23
D. Mitchell	19	48%	9.5 / 20
S. Merrill	17	65%	8.5 / 13
D. Wade	9	56%	4.5 / 8
K. Ellis	8	100%	4.0 / 4
M. Strus	6	50%	3.0 / 6
T. Bryant	5	63%	2.5 / 4
D. Schröder	3	75%	1.5 / 2
J. Tyson	2	20%	1.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bucks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Porter	25	66%	12.5 / 19
R. Rollins	19	63%	9.5 / 15
B. Portis	19	50%	9.5 / 19
O. Dieng	19	73%	9.5 / 13
P. Nance	13	93%	6.5 / 7
T. Prince	8	57%	4.0 / 7
A. Green	6	43%	3.0 / 7
J. Sims	4	67%	2.0 / 3
K. Kuzma	3	25%	1.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	6 118.3 24 112.3	CLE 129.5 +8.6 MIL 120.8
Pace	12 100.6 24 98.1	CLE 96.8 +2.6 MIL 94.2
Avg. Poss. Time	21 14.1 7 14.8	CLE 14.9 −0.4 MIL 15.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	5 56.1% 3 56.5%	CLE 55.8% MIL 59.1% +3.3%
TO %	10 13.2% 24 14.7%	CLE 6.5% −1.2% MIL 7.7%
ORB %	9 26.9% 30 21.1%	CLE 23.8% +7.5% MIL 16.3%
FTrt	15 26.5 29 22.3	CLE 39.5 +20.2 MIL 19.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 65.3% 17 63.3%	CLE 64.3% +7.2% MIL 57.1%
STL %	15 8.4% 23 7.5%	CLE 3.2% +0.1% MIL 3.1%
BLK %	11 9.8% 25 8.2%	CLE 9.3% MIL 12.0% +2.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	5 58.2% 9 57.5%	CLE 60.3% +1.7% MIL 58.6%
Rim FG%	7 66.1% 4 67.1%	CLE 67.6% MIL 68.8% +1.2%
Mid FG%	3 46.8% 20 42.6%	CLE 43.8% +3.1% MIL 40.7%
3P %	13 36.0% 2 38.7%	CLE 33.3% MIL 44.4% +11.1%
FT %	19 77.6% 30 73.0%	CLE 79.4% +8.8% MIL 70.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	14 31.7% 27 28.2%	CLE 39.5% +21.4% MIL 18.2%
Mid Att. %	8 24.1% 16 26.1%	CLE 18.6% −12.1% MIL 30.7%
3P Att. %	9 44.2% 5 45.7%	CLE 41.9% MIL 51.1% +9.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.4 and 2.4.

Game Totals	CLE	MIL
Possessions	95	96
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	123	116
Rebounds	46	39
Assists	27	24
Steals	3	3
Blocks	4	6
Turnovers (Team)	6 (1)	8 (0)
Fouls	20	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (3)	7 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (2)	32 (2)
Field Goals	42-86	42-88
At-the-Rim FG	23-34	11-16
Midrange FG	7-16	11-27
2-Point FG	30-50	22-43
3-Point FG	12-36	20-45
Free Throws	27-34	12-17
Fast Break Pts	15	0
2nd Chance Pts	18	15
Points in Paint	56	34
Pts off Turnovers	9	4
Bench Points	24	57
Biggest Lead	15	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg