Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Spurs	82%	120	132	132.0	100	99.2
	27	Kings	18%	108	104	104.0	100	100.8

Prediction updated: Mar 18, 2026 02:01 AM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

-6

101

SAC

-8

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.31 65.3%

SAC

1.04 52.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	23.5	17	106%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-7	71%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	22.0	18	60%	8	3	0	1	0	2	0	8	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	2-7	29%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.7	16	114%	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	4-5	80%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.7	15	68%	5	6	1	0	0	0	0	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-5	60%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	21.5	3	21%	1	12	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-6	0%	1-1	100%

Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	23.0	11	69%	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-7	43%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.0	7	39%	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	19.8	18	75%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-1	0%	6-8	75%	2-4	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	19.5	15	83%	4	5	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	19.5	4	67%	10	2	2	1	1	2	2	8	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	14.2	4	40%	6	3	1	1	0	0	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	8.5	1	17%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	5.0	3	75%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	65%	50	41	5	5	6	11	5	45	11-13	85%	23-44	52%	25-49	51%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	23.5	17	106%	1	1	0	0	2	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	5-7	71%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	22.0	18	60%	8	3	0	1	0	2	0	8	2-2	100%	5-7	71%	2-7	29%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.7	16	114%	4	3	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	2-2	100%	4-5	80%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	21.7	15	68%	5	6	1	0	0	0	0	5	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	3-5	60%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	21.5	3	21%	1	12	0	1	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-6	0%	1-1	100%

Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	23.0	11	69%	4	2	0	0	1	2	0	4	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-7	43%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	20.0	7	39%	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	3	2-2	100%	1-3	33%	1-5	20%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	19.8	18	75%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-1	0%	6-8	75%	2-4	50%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	19.5	15	83%	4	5	0	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	3-4	75%	3-5	60%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	19.5	4	67%	10	2	2	1	1	2	2	8	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	14.2	4	40%	6	3	1	1	0	0	3	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	8.5	1	17%	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	5.0	3	75%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-1	100%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Devin Vassell #24 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	132	65%	50	41	5	5	6	11	5	45	11-13	85%	23-44	52%	25-49	51%

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27 Sacramento Kings

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Maxime Raynaud #42 · C · 7'1" 250 · 23	41.6	32	59%	9	3	0	1	2	3	0	9	4-4	100%	11-20	55%	2-5	40%
Nique Clifford #5 · SG · 6'5" 175 · 24	36.7	15	58%	8	7	0	0	1	0	0	8	0-0	-	3-9	33%	3-4	75%
Precious Achiuwa #9 · PF · 6'8" 243 · 26	29.6	10	42%	7	2	0	1	0	2	2	5	1-1	100%	3-8	38%	1-4	25%
Russell Westbrook #18 · PG · 6'4" 200 · 37	24.6	5	36%	1	10	0	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	0-3	0%
DeMar DeRozan #10 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 37	16.9	2	25%	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-

Daeqwon Plowden #29 · SG · 6'4" 216 · 28	28.0	14	58%	1	1	2	0	2	3	0	1	1-4	25%	2-3	67%	3-8	38%
Doug McDermott #7 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 34	24.7	12	75%	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	0-0	-	4-8	50%
Killian Hayes #3 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 25	19.4	7	44%	3	4	1	0	3	0	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Dylan Cardwell #32 · C · 6'10" 255 · 24	18.4	7	50%	8	2	0	0	0	3	3	5	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Devin Carter #22 · PG · 6'2" 195 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Contusion
Malik Monk #0 · SG · 6'3" 200 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Keegan Murray #13 · PF · 6'8" 225 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Isaiah Stevens #24 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Patrick Baldwin Jr. #23 · SF · 7'0" 220 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Zach LaVine #8 · SG · 6'5" 200 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Tendon Repair
De'Andre Hunter #15 · SF · 6'7" 221 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Eye; Retinal Repair
Domantas Sabonis #11 · C · 6'10" 240 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Meniscus Repair
Drew Eubanks #19 · C · 6'10" 245 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Thumb; UCL Tear
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	104	52%	41	32	4	2	8	14	6	35	8-13	62%	27-57	47%	14-36	39%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	SAC
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	SAC

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.31 65.3%

SAC

1.04 52.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

75%

SAC

80%

Midrange

SAS

33%

SAC

36%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

37.5

51%

77%

SAC

21.0

39%

58%

Free Throws

SAS

85%

SAC

62%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	18	60%	9.0 / 15
K. Johnson	18	75%	9.0 / 12
J. Champagnie	17	106%	8.5 / 8
H. Barnes	16	114%	8.0 / 7
D. Fox	15	68%	7.5 / 11
D. Harper	15	83%	7.5 / 9
L. Waters	11	69%	5.5 / 8
C. Bryant	7	39%	3.5 / 9
L. Kornet	4	67%	2.0 / 3
K. Olynyk	4	40%	2.0 / 5
S. Castle	3	21%	1.5 / 7
J. McLaughlin	3	75%	1.5 / 2
B. Biyombo	1	17%	0.5 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Kings

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Raynaud	32	59%	16.0 / 27
N. Clifford	15	58%	7.5 / 13
D. Plowden	14	58%	7.0 / 12
D. McDermott	12	75%	6.0 / 8
P. Achiuwa	10	42%	5.0 / 12
K. Hayes	7	44%	3.5 / 8
D. Cardwell	7	50%	3.5 / 7
R. Westbrook	5	36%	2.5 / 7
D. DeRozan	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 26 110.6	SAS 132.0 +28.0 SAC 104.0
Pace	13 100.5 17 100.0	SAS 99.2 SAC 100.8 +1.7
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 14 14.5	SAS 14.5 SAC 14.3 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 29 52.5%	SAS 65.1% +13.5% SAC 51.6%
TO %	4 12.5% 15 13.7%	SAS 5.7% −1.8% SAC 7.5%
ORB %	10 26.2% 13 25.9%	SAS 12.5% +0.7% SAC 11.8%
FTrt	12 27.3 19 25.6	SAS 14.0 SAC 14.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 20 61.5%	SAS 85.4% +7.4% SAC 78.0%
STL %	24 7.5% 21 8.0%	SAS 5.0% +1.0% SAC 4.0%
BLK %	10 10.0% 19 8.6%	SAS 8.8% +4.3% SAC 4.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 29 54.7%	SAS 65.3% +13.3% SAC 52.0%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 8 65.9%	SAS 75.0% SAC 80.0% +5.0%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 13 43.8%	SAS 33.3% SAC 35.7% +2.4%
3P %	15 35.9% 29 34.1%	SAS 51.0% +12.1% SAC 38.9%
FT %	12 78.7% 21 77.2%	SAS 84.6% +23.1% SAC 61.5%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 28 28.0%	SAS 21.5% +5.4% SAC 16.1%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 30 38.1%	SAS 25.8% −19.4% SAC 45.2%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 30 33.9%	SAS 52.7% +14.0% SAC 38.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.66 and 2.66.

Game Totals	SAS	SAC
Possessions	100	100
Possession Minutes	24.2	23.8
Points	132	104
Rebounds	50	41
Assists	41	32
Steals	5	4
Blocks	5	2
Turnovers (Team)	6 (0)	8 (0)
Fouls	11	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (2)	6 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	45 (2)	35 (4)
Field Goals	48-93	41-93
At-the-Rim FG	15-20	12-15
Midrange FG	8-24	15-42
2-Point FG	23-44	27-57
3-Point FG	25-49	14-36
Free Throws	11-13	8-13
Fast Break Pts	20	8
2nd Chance Pts	9	11
Points in Paint	40	48
Pts off Turnovers	9	9
Bench Points	63	40
Biggest Lead	38	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg