Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Monday, March 23, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Spurs	49%	118	136	127.1	107	98.4
	6	Heat	51%	119	111	103.7	107	117.2

Prediction updated: Mar 23, 2026 11:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+23

-15

115

MIA

+12

-12

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.05 52.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	28.9	14	50%	3	6	1	0	3	2	1	2	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	1-4	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.3	26	57%	15	4	0	5	2	3	3	12	3-3	100%	10-15	67%	1-7	14%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	22.9	19	68%	7	6	2	0	4	3	3	4	9-10	90%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	21.9	3	38%	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	21.0	6	50%	2	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	24.5	21	75%	4	6	0	2	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	6-9	67%	3-5	60%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.5	21	66%	6	1	0	0	1	2	3	3	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	3-6	50%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.8	13	72%	3	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	4-7	57%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	19.1	5	42%	8	1	0	1	0	1	3	5	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	18.5	6	50%	8	3	0	1	3	4	0	8	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-3	0%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	2.9	0	0%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	2.9	2	100%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	59%	62	33	7	9	15	18	17	45	25-28	89%	33-58	57%	15-43	35%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	28.9	14	50%	3	6	1	0	3	2	1	2	3-3	100%	4-9	44%	1-4	25%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.3	26	57%	15	4	0	5	2	3	3	12	3-3	100%	10-15	67%	1-7	14%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	22.9	19	68%	7	6	2	0	4	3	3	4	9-10	90%	2-5	40%	2-4	50%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	21.9	3	38%	5	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-3	0%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	21.0	6	50%	2	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-1	100%	1-2	50%	1-4	25%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	24.5	21	75%	4	6	0	2	1	2	2	2	0-0	-	6-9	67%	3-5	60%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	23.5	21	66%	6	1	0	0	1	2	3	3	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	3-6	50%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	21.8	13	72%	3	1	2	0	0	0	1	2	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	4-7	57%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	19.1	5	42%	8	1	0	1	0	1	3	5	3-4	75%	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	18.5	6	50%	8	3	0	1	3	4	0	8	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-3	0%
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	2.9	0	0%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	2.9	2	100%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	2.9	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	59%	62	33	7	9	15	18	17	45	25-28	89%	33-58	57%	15-43	35%

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6 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	28.7	18	45%	3	4	1	0	0	0	0	3	6-6	100%	3-7	43%	2-10	20%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	26.2	18	69%	5	2	0	1	2	0	0	5	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	2-6	33%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	22.6	7	50%	1	3	2	0	2	2	1	0	3-3	100%	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	22.2	2	25%	2	3	2	0	1	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-2	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	19.6	9	64%	3	1	2	1	0	4	1	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%

Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	29.7	21	53%	4	2	0	0	4	4	0	4	3-4	75%	3-7	43%	4-11	36%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	22.3	7	35%	7	1	0	2	1	1	0	7	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-6	17%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	22.3	8	67%	6	5	2	1	0	1	3	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-3	67%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	19.5	8	50%	2	6	0	1	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	18.3	9	64%	2	0	1	2	0	3	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	2-6	33%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	5.7	0	0%	2	1	1	0	1	0	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	2.9	4	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Coaches Decision
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	52%	38	29	11	8	12	19	7	31	19-20	95%	22-43	51%	16-52	31%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.18 59.1%

MIA

1.05 52.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

61%

MIA

58%

Midrange

SAS

50%

MIA

41%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

22.5

35%

52%

MIA

24.0

31%

46%

Free Throws

SAS

89%

MIA

95%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	26	57%	13.0 / 23
D. Harper	21	75%	10.5 / 14
K. Johnson	21	66%	10.5 / 16
S. Castle	19	68%	9.5 / 14
D. Fox	14	50%	7.0 / 14
H. Barnes	13	72%	6.5 / 9
D. Vassell	6	50%	3.0 / 6
C. Bryant	6	50%	3.0 / 6
L. Kornet	5	42%	2.5 / 6
J. Champagnie	3	38%	1.5 / 4
K. Olynyk	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Powell	21	53%	10.5 / 20
B. Adebayo	18	45%	9.0 / 20
T. Herro	18	69%	9.0 / 13
A. Wiggins	9	64%	4.5 / 7
M. Gardner	9	64%	4.5 / 7
K. Jakučionis	8	67%	4.0 / 6
J. Jaquez	8	50%	4.0 / 8
P. Larsson	7	50%	3.5 / 7
K. Ware	7	35%	3.5 / 10
K. Johnson	4	100%	2.0 / 2
D. Mitchell	2	25%	1.0 / 4

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 12 115.8	SAS 127.1 +23.4 MIA 103.7
Pace	13 100.5 1 104.3	SAS 98.4 MIA 117.2 +18.8
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 30 13.1	SAS 14.6 MIA 12.3 −2.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 18 54.2%	SAS 55.0% +6.6% MIA 48.4%
TO %	4 12.5% 5 12.6%	SAS 11.7% MIA 10.4% −1.3%
ORB %	10 26.2% 17 25.4%	SAS 35.4% +21.9% MIA 13.5%
FTrt	12 27.3 14 26.8	SAS 27.7 +6.6 MIA 21.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 10 66.3%	SAS 68.8% MIA 76.3% +7.5%
STL %	24 7.5% 17 8.3%	SAS 6.5% MIA 10.3% +3.8%
BLK %	10 10.0% 28 7.9%	SAS 20.9% +7.1% MIA 13.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 15 56.8%	SAS 59.1% +6.7% MIA 52.4%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 20 63.6%	SAS 60.5% +2.8% MIA 57.7%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 21 42.4%	SAS 50.0% +8.8% MIA 41.2%
3P %	15 35.9% 11 36.1%	SAS 34.9% +4.1% MIA 30.8%
FT %	12 78.7% 11 79.2%	SAS 89.3% MIA 95.0% +5.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 11 32.9%	SAS 37.6% +10.3% MIA 27.4%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 17 26.5%	SAS 19.8% MIA 17.9% −1.9%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 18 40.6%	SAS 42.6% MIA 54.7% +12.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MIA
Possessions	107	107
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	136	111
Rebounds	62	38
Assists	33	29
Steals	7	11
Blocks	9	8
Turnovers (Team)	15 (0)	12 (0)
Fouls	18	19
Off. Rebounds (Team)	17 (6)	7 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	45 (1)	31 (0)
Field Goals	48-101	38-95
At-the-Rim FG	23-38	15-26
Midrange FG	10-20	7-17
2-Point FG	33-58	22-43
3-Point FG	15-43	16-52
Free Throws	25-28	19-20
Fast Break Pts	19	20
2nd Chance Pts	25	6
Points in Paint	60	40
Pts off Turnovers	16	19
Bench Points	68	57
Biggest Lead	30	1

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg