Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	10	Heat	43%	119	120	123.7	97	95.0
	4	Cavaliers	57%	121	103	106.2	97	99.0

Prediction updated: Mar 25, 2026 11:32 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+10

-12

CLE

+11

-14

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.28 63.8%

CLE

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

10 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	34.0	19	73%	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	4	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	33.1	17	40%	10	7	2	0	1	1	1	9	4-5	80%	5-10	50%	1-9	11%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	31.9	11	79%	2	3	1	1	2	2	1	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	2-4	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	30.3	18	75%	2	4	3	0	2	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	4-8	50%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	23.6	12	67%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-5	40%

Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	34.1	14	88%	5	2	1	1	5	1	3	2	7-7	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.1	13	130%	11	4	0	1	0	2	0	11	0-1	0%	2-2	100%	3-3	100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	19.4	14	58%	2	5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-1	0%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	13.6	2	33%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	64%	40	31	11	3	12	17	5	35	18-22	82%	24-36	67%	18-45	40%

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10 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	34.0	19	73%	4	2	2	0	1	2	0	4	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	3-7	43%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	33.1	17	40%	10	7	2	0	1	1	1	9	4-5	80%	5-10	50%	1-9	11%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	31.9	11	79%	2	3	1	1	2	2	1	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	2-4	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	30.3	18	75%	2	4	3	0	2	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	4-8	50%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	23.6	12	67%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-5	40%

Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	34.1	14	88%	5	2	1	1	5	1	3	2	7-7	100%	2-3	67%	1-2	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.1	13	130%	11	4	0	1	0	2	0	11	0-1	0%	2-2	100%	3-3	100%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	19.4	14	58%	2	5	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-1	0%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	13.6	2	33%	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	64%	40	31	11	3	12	17	5	35	18-22	82%	24-36	67%	18-45	40%

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4 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	42.5	18	69%	9	7	0	1	5	1	1	8	7-7	100%	1-1	100%	3-9	33%
Keon Ellis #14 · PF · 6'4" 175 · 26	36.9	17	61%	2	1	2	0	0	2	1	1	6-6	100%	4-5	80%	1-7	14%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	33.2	28	64%	6	4	0	0	3	6	1	5	0-0	-	8-13	62%	4-9	44%
Evan Mobley #4 · C · 6'11" 215 · 25	30.6	8	40%	5	4	0	0	2	2	1	4	2-5	40%	3-8	38%	0-0	-
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	28.7	18	64%	2	4	0	0	3	1	0	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	4-10	40%

Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 33	27.7	4	33%	6	6	0	0	0	2	0	6	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-1	0%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	17.9	6	75%	4	0	0	0	0	4	2	2	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	16.1	4	29%	5	0	0	0	1	2	1	4	0-0	-	2-6	33%	0-1	0%
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	6.4	0	0%	1	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	DNP – Coach's Decision \| Illness; Illness
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Foot; Injury Mangement
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Tendonitis
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Strain
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	103	55%	40	26	4	1	14	21	8	32	21-24	88%	23-44	52%	12-37	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.28 63.8%

CLE

1.11 55.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

88%

CLE

59%

Midrange

MIA

50%

CLE

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

27.0

40%

60%

CLE

18.0

32%

49%

Free Throws

MIA

82%

CLE

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Powell	19	73%	9.5 / 13
T. Herro	18	75%	9.0 / 12
B. Adebayo	17	40%	8.5 / 21
P. Larsson	14	88%	7.0 / 8
J. Jaquez	14	58%	7.0 / 12
K. Ware	13	130%	6.5 / 5
A. Wiggins	12	67%	6.0 / 9
D. Mitchell	11	79%	5.5 / 7
K. Jakučionis	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Mitchell	28	64%	14.0 / 22
J. Harden	18	69%	9.0 / 13
S. Merrill	18	64%	9.0 / 14
K. Ellis	17	61%	8.5 / 14
E. Mobley	8	40%	4.0 / 10
N. Tomlin	6	75%	3.0 / 4
D. Schröder	4	33%	2.0 / 6
T. Bryant	4	29%	2.0 / 7
T. Proctor	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 6 118.3	MIA 123.7 +17.5 CLE 106.2
Pace	1 104.3 12 100.6	MIA 95.0 CLE 99.0 +4.0
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 21 14.1	MIA 15.2 CLE 14.5 −0.6
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 5 56.1%	MIA 63.0% +12.4% CLE 50.6%
TO %	5 12.6% 10 13.2%	MIA 13.4% CLE 13.3% −0.1%
ORB %	17 25.4% 9 26.9%	MIA 13.5% CLE 18.6% +5.1%
FTrt	14 26.8 15 26.5	MIA 27.2 CLE 29.6 +2.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 11 65.3%	MIA 73.8% CLE 74.3% +0.5%
STL %	17 8.3% 15 8.4%	MIA 11.3% +7.2% CLE 4.1%
BLK %	28 7.9% 11 9.8%	MIA 6.8% +4.0% CLE 2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 5 58.2%	MIA 63.8% +8.4% CLE 55.4%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 7 66.1%	MIA 87.5% +28.4% CLE 59.1%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 3 46.8%	MIA 50.0% +4.5% CLE 45.5%
3P %	11 36.1% 13 36.0%	MIA 40.0% +7.6% CLE 32.4%
FT %	11 79.2% 19 77.6%	MIA 81.8% CLE 87.5% +5.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 14 31.7%	MIA 19.8% CLE 27.2% +7.4%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 8 24.1%	MIA 24.7% −2.5% CLE 27.2%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 9 44.2%	MIA 55.6% +9.9% CLE 45.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	CLE
Possessions	97	97
Possession Minutes	24.5	23.5
Points	120	103
Rebounds	40	40
Assists	31	26
Steals	11	4
Blocks	3	1
Turnovers (Team)	12 (2)	14 (0)
Fouls	17	21
Off. Rebounds (Team)	5 (5)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (2)	32 (1)
Field Goals	42-81	35-81
At-the-Rim FG	14-16	13-22
Midrange FG	10-20	10-22
2-Point FG	24-36	23-44
3-Point FG	18-45	12-37
Free Throws	18-22	21-24
Fast Break Pts	17	4
2nd Chance Pts	10	2
Points in Paint	40	44
Pts off Turnovers	18	11
Bench Points	43	14
Biggest Lead	21	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg