Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, March 25, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Spurs	81%	121	123	123.0	100	91.5
	25	Grizzlies	19%	109	98	96.1	102	112.5

Prediction updated: Mar 25, 2026 11:58 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

+14

-14

100

MEM

-12

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.23 61.5%

MEM

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.9	19	59%	15	3	3	7	2	1	6	9	2-3	67%	7-12	58%	1-3	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 26	26.5	19	86%	7	4	1	0	0	0	2	5	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-6	67%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	25.9	15	68%	3	9	0	0	5	1	0	3	5-9	56%	5-5	100%	0-2	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	25.5	13	59%	8	2	1	1	1	1	0	8	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Dylan Harper #2 · PG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.9	10	63%	5	6	0	1	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-5	40%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	22.4	15	47%	7	3	0	0	1	3	2	5	0-0	-	6-10	60%	1-6	17%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	22.0	11	79%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	15.4	5	63%	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	15.3	2	33%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	10.3	2	100%	4	2	1	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	8.9	3	25%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-6	17%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.9	9	113%	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	8.9	0	0%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Tightness
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	62%	59	36	7	9	14	17	13	46	15-22	68%	30-43	70%	16-46	35%

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9 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	26.9	19	59%	15	3	3	7	2	1	6	9	2-3	67%	7-12	58%	1-3	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · PF · 6'5" 200 · 26	26.5	19	86%	7	4	1	0	0	0	2	5	1-2	50%	3-4	75%	4-6	67%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	25.9	15	68%	3	9	0	0	5	1	0	3	5-9	56%	5-5	100%	0-2	0%
Julian Champagnie #30 · SF · 6'7" 217 · 25	25.5	13	59%	8	2	1	1	1	1	0	8	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	3-8	38%
Dylan Harper #2 · PG · 6'5" 215 · 20	22.9	10	63%	5	6	0	1	1	1	1	4	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-5	40%

Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	22.4	15	47%	7	3	0	0	1	3	2	5	0-0	-	6-10	60%	1-6	17%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	22.0	11	79%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	15.4	5	63%	1	0	1	0	0	3	0	1	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-1	0%
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	15.3	2	33%	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	10.3	2	100%	4	2	1	0	2	2	2	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	8.9	3	25%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-6	17%
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	8.9	9	113%	1	3	0	0	1	0	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	8.9	0	0%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Tightness
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	123	62%	59	36	7	9	14	17	13	46	15-22	68%	30-43	70%	16-46	35%

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25 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	30.3	8	67%	3	5	1	0	3	1	1	2	3-4	75%	1-1	100%	1-3	33%
GG Jackson #45 · SF · 6'9" 210 · 21	29.9	20	63%	7	2	2	1	0	1	1	6	3-4	75%	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
Taylor Hendricks #22 · C · 6'9" 215 · 22	27.7	2	14%	8	0	0	0	2	3	0	8	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-4	0%
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 23	26.8	12	60%	1	4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-6	33%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 24	25.3	17	85%	5	0	0	0	1	3	0	5	2-3	67%	3-3	100%	3-7	43%

Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	29.5	1	8%	2	7	0	0	1	0	1	1	1-1	100%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
Tyler Burton #5 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	23.8	6	43%	2	1	2	1	1	6	0	2	0-0	-	0-2	0%	2-5	40%
Walter Clayton Jr. #4 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	21.7	10	50%	2	6	0	1	2	1	0	2	2-4	50%	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
DeJon Jarreau #77 · SG · 6'5" 185 · 28	15.0	15	44%	2	1	3	0	2	1	0	2	3-4	75%	3-4	75%	2-11	18%
Taj Gibson #67 · C · 6'9" 232 · 41	10.0	7	88%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-1	100%
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Jaylen Wells #0 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Soreness
Rayan Rupert #32 · SG · 6'7" 205 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery
Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; UCL Sprain
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Surgery Recovery
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery Recovery
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Surgery Recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	51%	33	26	8	3	12	18	3	30	14-20	70%	18-36	50%	16-50	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	MEM

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.23 61.5%

MEM

1.01 50.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

69%

MEM

71%

Midrange

SAS

71%

MEM

20%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

24.0

35%

52%

MEM

24.0

32%

48%

Free Throws

SAS

68%

MEM

70%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	19	59%	9.5 / 16
D. Vassell	19	86%	9.5 / 11
S. Castle	15	68%	7.5 / 11
K. Johnson	15	47%	7.5 / 16
J. Champagnie	13	59%	6.5 / 11
H. Barnes	11	79%	5.5 / 7
D. Harper	10	63%	5.0 / 8
K. Olynyk	9	113%	4.5 / 4
C. Bryant	5	63%	2.5 / 4
L. Waters	3	25%	1.5 / 6
J. McLaughlin	2	33%	1.0 / 3
M. Plumlee	2	100%	1.0 / 1
B. Biyombo	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Jackson	20	63%	10.0 / 16
O. Prosper	17	85%	8.5 / 10
D. Jarreau	15	44%	7.5 / 17
C. Coward	12	60%	6.0 / 10
W. Clayton	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Small	8	67%	4.0 / 6
T. Gibson	7	88%	3.5 / 4
T. Burton	6	43%	3.0 / 7
T. Hendricks	2	14%	1.0 / 7
C. Spencer	1	8%	0.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 23 112.4	SAS 123.0 +26.9 MEM 96.1
Pace	13 100.5 7 101.8	SAS 91.5 MEM 112.5 +21.0
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 26 13.8	SAS 15.7 MEM 12.8 −2.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 24 53.3%	SAS 60.7% +11.9% MEM 48.8%
TO %	4 12.5% 22 14.3%	SAS 13.2% MEM 11.2% −2.0%
ORB %	10 26.2% 19 24.7%	SAS 30.2% +24.1% MEM 6.1%
FTrt	12 27.3 21 25.1	SAS 24.7 +1.4 MEM 23.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 6 67.4%	SAS 78.3% +1.8% MEM 76.5%
STL %	24 7.5% 11 8.7%	SAS 7.0% MEM 7.8% +0.8%
BLK %	10 10.0% 14 9.1%	SAS 25.0% +18.0% MEM 7.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 22 55.8%	SAS 61.5% +11.0% MEM 50.5%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 26 62.8%	SAS 69.4% MEM 71.4% +2.0%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 11 44.2%	SAS 71.4% +51.4% MEM 20.0%
3P %	15 35.9% 22 35.3%	SAS 34.8% +2.8% MEM 32.0%
FT %	12 78.7% 9 79.3%	SAS 68.2% MEM 70.0% +1.8%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 26 28.6%	SAS 40.4% +16.0% MEM 24.4%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 19 27.8%	SAS 7.9% −9.6% MEM 17.4%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 10 43.6%	SAS 51.7% MEM 58.1% +6.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	SAS	MEM
Possessions	100	102
Possession Minutes	26.2	21.8
Points	123	98
Rebounds	59	33
Assists	36	26
Steals	7	8
Blocks	9	3
Turnovers (Team)	14 (1)	12 (0)
Fouls	17	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (1)	3 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	46 (2)	30 (3)
Field Goals	46-89	34-86
At-the-Rim FG	25-36	15-21
Midrange FG	5-7	3-15
2-Point FG	30-43	18-36
3-Point FG	16-46	16-50
Free Throws	15-22	14-20
Fast Break Pts	12	11
2nd Chance Pts	21	13
Points in Paint	56	34
Pts off Turnovers	18	14
Bench Points	47	39
Biggest Lead	39	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg