Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 27, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	9	Heat	36%	117	128	119.6	107	111.0
	5	Cavaliers	64%	122	149	136.7	109	105.2

Prediction updated: Mar 27, 2026 11:31 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+14

-13

108

CLE

100

+12

-9

112

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.17 58.7%

CLE

1.33 66.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

9 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	31.4	11	39%	3	5	0	0	1	3	1	2	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	1-4	25%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	30.7	14	39%	16	3	1	1	2	0	1	15	7-8	88%	2-6	33%	1-8	13%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	25.4	15	68%	3	2	0	1	0	3	0	3	3-3	100%	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	24.0	2	17%	4	4	0	0	4	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	20.0	12	86%	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	3-3	100%

Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	25.7	10	71%	3	5	1	0	3	1	2	1	6-6	100%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	21.2	20	83%	2	3	0	1	3	4	0	2	0-1	0%	7-8	88%	2-5	40%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.7	14	64%	8	1	1	0	0	1	3	5	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	2-4	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	19.5	14	88%	3	1	0	0	0	3	2	1	6-6	100%	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	9.9	12	75%	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	6.8	3	38%	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	4.7	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	59%	45	25	5	4	13	22	11	34	33-38	87%	25-45	56%	15-46	33%

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9 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	31.4	11	39%	3	5	0	0	1	3	1	2	2-2	100%	3-9	33%	1-4	25%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	30.7	14	39%	16	3	1	1	2	0	1	15	7-8	88%	2-6	33%	1-8	13%
Norman Powell #24 · SF · 6'4" 215 · 33	25.4	15	68%	3	2	0	1	0	3	0	3	3-3	100%	3-5	60%	2-5	40%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	24.0	2	17%	4	4	0	0	4	2	1	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-4	0%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	20.0	12	86%	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	3-4	75%	0-2	0%	3-3	100%

Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	25.7	10	71%	3	5	1	0	3	1	2	1	6-6	100%	2-2	100%	0-2	0%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	21.2	20	83%	2	3	0	1	3	4	0	2	0-1	0%	7-8	88%	2-5	40%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	20.7	14	64%	8	1	1	0	0	1	3	5	2-2	100%	3-6	50%	2-4	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	19.5	14	88%	3	1	0	0	0	3	2	1	6-6	100%	1-1	100%	2-5	40%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	9.9	12	75%	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	1	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	6.8	3	38%	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	0	1-2	50%	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	4.7	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	59%	45	25	5	4	13	22	11	34	33-38	87%	25-45	56%	15-46	33%

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5 Cleveland Cavaliers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Donovan Mitchell #45 · SG · 6'2" 215 · 30	30.6	6	25%	4	6	4	0	2	2	1	3	4-4	100%	1-7	14%	0-3	0%
James Harden #1 · PG · 6'5" 220 · 37	29.5	17	61%	5	14	2	0	1	3	0	5	7-7	100%	2-5	40%	2-6	33%
Evan Mobley #4 · PF · 6'11" 215 · 25	29.2	23	72%	10	3	1	0	0	2	0	10	2-2	100%	9-13	69%	1-2	50%
Sam Merrill #5 · SF · 6'4" 205 · 30	26.7	10	56%	3	4	0	0	0	2	0	3	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-7	29%
Jarrett Allen #31 · C · 6'9" 243 · 28	18.3	18	82%	10	0	0	1	0	1	2	8	2-2	100%	8-10	80%	0-0	-

Keon Ellis #14 · SG · 6'4" 175 · 26	24.5	10	100%	0	2	1	0	0	5	0	0	0-1	0%	2-2	100%	2-3	67%
Max Strus #2 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 30	22.8	29	97%	8	1	0	0	1	2	1	7	1-2	50%	2-3	67%	8-11	73%
Dennis Schröder #8 · PG · 6'1" 175 · 33	19.9	8	50%	0	5	1	0	0	1	0	0	2-3	67%	3-6	50%	0-1	0%
Thomas Bryant #3 · C · 6'9" 248 · 29	14.0	11	55%	4	0	0	0	2	2	3	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-4	25%
Nae'Qwan Tomlin #35 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 25	5.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tyrese Proctor #24 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	5.7	6	100%	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	1	4-4	100%	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Riley Minix #12 · SF · 6'7" 230 · 26	4.7	6	100%	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-2	100%
Olivier Sarr #33 · C · 6'10" 240 · 27	4.2	1	50%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1-2	50%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Larry Nance Jr. #22 · PF · 6'6" 245 · 33	4.2	4	100%	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	1	1-2	50%	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Tristan Enaruna #21 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Dean Wade #32 · PF · 6'9" 228 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Craig Porter Jr. #9 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Groin; Strain
Jaylon Tyson #20 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	149	67%	46	38	9	1	9	26	7	39	26-31	84%	33-56	59%	19-41	46%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CLE

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.17 58.7%

CLE

1.33 66.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

75%

CLE

64%

Midrange

MIA

40%

CLE

52%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

22.5

33%

49%

CLE

28.5

46%

70%

Free Throws

MIA

87%

CLE

84%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez	20	83%	10.0 / 12
N. Powell	15	68%	7.5 / 11
B. Adebayo	14	39%	7.0 / 18
K. Ware	14	64%	7.0 / 11
K. Jakučionis	14	88%	7.0 / 8
A. Wiggins	12	86%	6.0 / 7
S. Fontecchio	12	75%	6.0 / 8
T. Herro	11	39%	5.5 / 14
P. Larsson	10	71%	5.0 / 7
M. Gardner	3	38%	1.5 / 4
D. Mitchell	2	17%	1.0 / 6
K. Johnson	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Cavaliers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Strus	29	97%	14.5 / 15
E. Mobley	23	72%	11.5 / 16
J. Allen	18	82%	9.0 / 11
J. Harden	17	61%	8.5 / 14
T. Bryant	11	55%	5.5 / 10
S. Merrill	10	56%	5.0 / 9
K. Ellis	10	100%	5.0 / 5
D. Schröder	8	50%	4.0 / 8
D. Mitchell	6	25%	3.0 / 12
T. Proctor	6	100%	3.0 / 3
R. Minix	6	100%	3.0 / 3
L. Nance	4	100%	2.0 / 2
O. Sarr	1	50%	0.5 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 6 118.3	MIA 119.6 CLE 136.7 +17.1
Pace	1 104.3 12 100.6	MIA 111.0 +5.7 CLE 105.2
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 21 14.1	MIA 13.0 −0.7 CLE 13.7
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 5 56.1%	MIA 52.2% CLE 63.4% +11.2%
TO %	5 12.6% 10 13.2%	MIA 10.8% CLE 8.3% −2.5%
ORB %	17 25.4% 9 26.9%	MIA 22.0% +4.9% CLE 17.1%
FTrt	14 26.8 15 26.5	MIA 41.8 +9.8 CLE 32.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 11 65.3%	MIA 62.5% CLE 73.1% +10.6%
STL %	17 8.3% 15 8.4%	MIA 4.7% CLE 8.3% +3.6%
BLK %	28 7.9% 11 9.8%	MIA 7.1% +4.9% CLE 2.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 5 58.2%	MIA 58.7% CLE 66.5% +7.8%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 7 66.1%	MIA 75.0% +11.4% CLE 63.6%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 3 46.8%	MIA 40.0% CLE 52.2% +12.2%
3P %	11 36.1% 13 36.0%	MIA 32.6% CLE 46.3% +13.7%
FT %	11 79.2% 19 77.6%	MIA 86.8% +2.9% CLE 83.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 14 31.7%	MIA 22.0% CLE 34.0% +12.0%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 8 24.1%	MIA 27.5% CLE 23.7% −3.8%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 9 44.2%	MIA 50.5% +8.3% CLE 42.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	CLE
Possessions	107	109
Possession Minutes	23.1	24.9
Points	128	149
Rebounds	45	46
Assists	25	38
Steals	5	9
Blocks	4	1
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	9 (1)
Fouls	22	26
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (3)	7 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	34 (1)	39 (1)
Field Goals	40-91	52-97
At-the-Rim FG	15-20	21-33
Midrange FG	10-25	12-23
2-Point FG	25-45	33-56
3-Point FG	15-46	19-41
Free Throws	33-38	26-31
Fast Break Pts	17	20
2nd Chance Pts	16	16
Points in Paint	46	52
Pts off Turnovers	17	17
Bench Points	74	75
Biggest Lead	0	36

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg