Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, March 29, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	12	Heat	69%	121	118	114.6	103	102.7
	22	Pacers	31%	114	135	129.8	104	104.3

Prediction updated: Mar 29, 2026 08:56 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+12

-7

108

IND

-11

100

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.09 54.6%

IND

1.35 67.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	37.5	15	50%	6	5	2	2	1	3	4	2	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	3-6	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	36.4	31	70%	3	4	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	7-9	78%	5-13	38%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.8	15	58%	5	3	0	0	1	3	0	5	1-3	33%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	35.5	12	75%	3	8	2	0	1	4	0	3	1-2	50%	4-5	80%	1-2	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	33.0	15	42%	12	3	0	1	1	1	0	12	3-4	75%	6-13	46%	0-3	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.7	17	50%	8	2	0	0	1	1	3	5	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-5	40%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	15.1	5	50%	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	12.5	5	83%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	7.2	1	10%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	1.5	2	100%	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	NWT - Injury/Illness
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #3 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	55%	42	29	5	4	7	17	10	32	13-18	72%	33-62	53%	13-37	35%

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12 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	37.5	15	50%	6	5	2	2	1	3	4	2	2-2	100%	2-8	25%	3-6	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	36.4	31	70%	3	4	0	0	0	1	1	2	2-2	100%	7-9	78%	5-13	38%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 25	35.8	15	58%	5	3	0	0	1	3	0	5	1-3	33%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	35.5	12	75%	3	8	2	0	1	4	0	3	1-2	50%	4-5	80%	1-2	50%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	33.0	15	42%	12	3	0	1	1	1	0	12	3-4	75%	6-13	46%	0-3	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.7	17	50%	8	2	0	0	1	1	3	5	1-1	100%	5-12	42%	2-5	40%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	15.1	5	50%	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-3	33%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	12.5	5	83%	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	7.2	1	10%	1	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	1-2	50%	0-2	0%	0-2	0%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	1.5	2	100%	1	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	DNP – Coach's Decision
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	NWT - Injury/Illness
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Trevor Keels #3 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	55%	42	29	5	4	7	17	10	32	13-18	72%	33-62	53%	13-37	35%

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22 Indiana Pacers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Nembhard #2 · PG · 6'4" 191 · 26	36.4	15	63%	3	10	0	0	2	1	0	3	1-1	100%	4-6	67%	2-6	33%
Pascal Siakam #43 · C · 6'8" 245 · 32	31.3	30	56%	11	6	1	0	4	2	2	9	5-7	71%	8-16	50%	3-8	38%
Quenton Jackson #29 · SG · 6'4" 173 · 28	20.3	10	83%	3	1	0	0	2	1	0	3	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Jalen Slawson #18 · PF · 6'7" 215 · 26	16.1	0	0%	4	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Ethan Thompson #55 · SF · 6'4" 195 · 27	9.9	3	50%	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%

Kobe Brown #24 · PF · 6'7" 250 · 26	33.4	18	82%	4	5	1	1	0	2	1	3	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	3-6	50%
Ben Sheppard #26 · SG · 6'6" 190 · 25	23.2	5	63%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
Micah Potter #11 · C · 6'9" 248 · 28	20.5	21	105%	5	0	0	0	2	3	0	5	2-2	100%	2-3	67%	5-6	83%
T.J. McConnell #9 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 34	18.3	15	94%	2	9	0	1	1	0	0	2	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	2-3	67%
Jay Huff #32 · C · 7'1" 240 · 29	16.1	6	60%	5	0	0	2	0	1	0	5	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Obi Toppin #1 · PF · 6'9" 220 · 28	14.6	12	75%	2	3	0	0	0	2	0	2	1-1	100%	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Taelon Peter #4 · SG · 6'3" 185 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kam Jones #7 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jarace Walker #5 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Bruise
Johnny Furphy #12 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Tear
Aaron Nesmith #23 · SF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Cervical; Strain
Tyrese Haliburton #0 · PG · 6'5" 185 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles Tendon; Tear
Ivica Zubac #40 · C · 7'0" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Rib; Fracture
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	135	68%	42	36	3	5	11	17	3	39	11-13	85%	35-53	66%	18-39	46%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	IND
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	IND

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.09 54.6%

IND

1.35 67.5%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

65%

IND

76%

Midrange

MIA

39%

IND

54%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

19.5

35%

53%

IND

27.0

46%

69%

Free Throws

MIA

72%

IND

85%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Herro	31	70%	15.5 / 22
J. Jaquez	17	50%	8.5 / 17
A. Wiggins	15	50%	7.5 / 15
P. Larsson	15	58%	7.5 / 13
B. Adebayo	15	42%	7.5 / 18
D. Mitchell	12	75%	6.0 / 8
K. Ware	5	50%	2.5 / 5
K. Jakučionis	5	83%	2.5 / 3
M. Gardner	2	100%	1.0 / 1
S. Fontecchio	1	10%	0.5 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Pacers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
P. Siakam	30	56%	15.0 / 27
M. Potter	21	105%	10.5 / 10
K. Brown	18	82%	9.0 / 11
A. Nembhard	15	63%	7.5 / 12
T. McConnell	15	94%	7.5 / 8
O. Toppin	12	75%	6.0 / 8
Q. Jackson	10	83%	5.0 / 6
J. Huff	6	60%	3.0 / 5
B. Sheppard	5	63%	2.5 / 4
E. Thompson	3	50%	1.5 / 3
J. Slawson	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 28 110.1	MIA 114.6 IND 129.8 +15.2
Pace	1 104.3 10 101.4	MIA 102.7 IND 104.3 +1.6
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 25 13.9	MIA 14.0 IND 13.8 −0.2
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 23 53.3%	MIA 53.0% IND 67.4% +14.4%
TO %	5 12.6% 14 13.6%	MIA 6.1% −4.8% IND 10.9%
ORB %	17 25.4% 29 21.7%	MIA 20.4% +11.8% IND 8.6%
FTrt	14 26.8 20 25.2	MIA 18.2 +4.1 IND 14.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 5 67.8%	MIA 63.0% IND 67.9% +4.9%
STL %	17 8.3% 28 7.2%	MIA 4.9% +2.0% IND 2.9%
BLK %	28 7.9% 26 8.1%	MIA 7.5% IND 8.1% +0.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 24 55.4%	MIA 54.6% IND 67.5% +12.9%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 25 62.9%	MIA 64.7% IND 75.9% +11.2%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 19 42.7%	MIA 39.3% IND 54.2% +14.9%
3P %	11 36.1% 18 35.6%	MIA 35.1% IND 46.2% +11.1%
FT %	11 79.2% 17 77.6%	MIA 72.2% IND 84.6% +12.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 23 30.3%	MIA 34.3% +2.8% IND 31.5%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 18 27.5%	MIA 28.3% IND 26.1% −2.2%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 14 42.2%	MIA 37.4% IND 42.4% +5.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	IND
Possessions	103	104
Possession Minutes	24.1	23.9
Points	118	135
Rebounds	42	42
Assists	29	36
Steals	5	3
Blocks	4	5
Turnovers (Team)	7 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	17	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	10 (2)	3 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	32 (1)	39 (5)
Field Goals	46-99	53-92
At-the-Rim FG	22-34	22-29
Midrange FG	11-28	13-24
2-Point FG	33-62	35-53
3-Point FG	13-37	18-39
Free Throws	13-18	11-13
Fast Break Pts	10	12
2nd Chance Pts	13	5
Points in Paint	62	54
Pts off Turnovers	21	7
Bench Points	30	77
Biggest Lead	8	17

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg