Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Thursday, March 12, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	22	Mavericks	65%	116	120	117.6	102	91.8
	27	Grizzlies	35%	111	112	110.9	101	113.6

Prediction updated: Mar 12, 2026 11:32 PM

Scoring Opportunities

DAL

+26

-19

109

MEM

+18

-10

109

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.11 55.6%

MEM

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

22 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cooper Flagg #32 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 19	33.3	13	38%	6	7	0	1	1	3	5	1	1-2	50%	6-13	46%	0-3	0%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 28	28.0	12	46%	10	1	0	1	1	2	2	8	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-3	0%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	27.3	22	73%	14	1	0	1	2	3	6	8	4-7	57%	9-12	75%	0-0	-
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	24.6	13	54%	0	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Naji Marshall #13 · PG · 6'6" 220 · 28	23.3	5	31%	6	3	1	0	6	1	0	6	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%

Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	28.3	12	60%	8	5	2	2	2	3	2	6	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	0-3	0%
Khris Middleton #20 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 35	24.7	35	88%	2	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	7-7	100%	2-7	29%	8-10	80%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	19.1	6	60%	9	0	0	2	0	3	3	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	14.6	2	33%	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Ryan Nembhard #9 · PG · 5'11" 180 · 23	13.4	0	0%	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 35	1.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
AJ Johnson #8 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Poulakidas #1 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Smith #23 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	56%	60	25	8	9	19	17	21	39	19-24	79%	34-61	56%	11-32	34%

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22 Dallas Mavericks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cooper Flagg #32 · SF · 6'9" 205 · 19	33.3	13	38%	6	7	0	1	1	3	5	1	1-2	50%	6-13	46%	0-3	0%
P.J. Washington #25 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 28	28.0	12	46%	10	1	0	1	1	2	2	8	2-2	100%	5-9	56%	0-3	0%
Daniel Gafford #21 · C · 6'10" 265 · 27	27.3	22	73%	14	1	0	1	2	3	6	8	4-7	57%	9-12	75%	0-0	-
Max Christie #00 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 23	24.6	13	54%	0	0	2	1	5	1	0	0	0-0	-	2-4	50%	3-8	38%
Naji Marshall #13 · PG · 6'6" 220 · 28	23.3	5	31%	6	3	1	0	6	1	0	6	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	0-3	0%

Brandon Williams #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 26	28.3	12	60%	8	5	2	2	2	3	2	6	4-4	100%	4-5	80%	0-3	0%
Khris Middleton #20 · SF · 6'7" 222 · 35	24.7	35	88%	2	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	7-7	100%	2-7	29%	8-10	80%
Marvin Bagley III #35 · PF · 6'10" 235 · 27	19.1	6	60%	9	0	0	2	0	3	3	6	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-1	0%
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 30	14.6	2	33%	3	1	0	1	1	0	1	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Ryan Nembhard #9 · PG · 5'11" 180 · 23	13.4	0	0%	2	5	1	0	1	0	0	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dwight Powell #7 · C · 6'10" 240 · 35	1.7	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
AJ Johnson #8 · SG · 6'5" 160 · 21	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
John Poulakidas #1 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Tyler Smith #23 · PF · 6'9" 224 · 21	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Moussa Cisse #30 · C · 6'11" 220 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Kyrie Irving #11 · SG · 6'2" 195 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Surgery
Dereck Lively II #2 · C · 7'1" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
Klay Thompson #31 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 36	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	120	56%	60	25	8	9	19	17	21	39	19-24	79%	34-61	56%	11-32	34%

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27 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Rayan Rupert #32 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 22	37.6	13	54%	7	2	1	0	1	2	1	6	2-2	100%	4-7	57%	1-4	25%
Jaylen Wells #0 · SG · 6'7" 206 · 23	32.4	23	68%	2	2	2	1	0	3	1	1	6-6	100%	4-8	50%	3-7	43%
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 21	30.7	20	59%	4	3	0	1	2	1	2	2	3-5	60%	7-9	78%	1-6	17%
Javon Small #10 · PG · 6'1" 190 · 23	28.1	19	68%	2	9	1	0	3	3	0	2	4-4	100%	3-6	50%	3-6	50%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper #18 · C · 6'7" 230 · 24	26.5	9	32%	8	2	3	0	1	2	3	5	0-3	0%	3-5	60%	1-8	13%

Jahmai Mashack #21 · SG · 6'4" 203 · 23	31.2	8	33%	4	6	2	0	1	4	2	2	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	1-4	25%
Tyler Burton #5 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 26	29.4	3	17%	1	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-2	0%	1-7	14%
Taylor Hendricks #22 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 22	24.1	17	71%	10	2	1	2	1	0	5	5	0-0	-	4-6	67%	3-6	50%
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 29	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Strain
Cedric Coward #23 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Cam Spencer #24 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Soreness
Walter Clayton Jr. #4 · PG · 6'4" 195 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Scotty Pippen Jr. #1 · PG · 6'2" 170 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sesamoiditis
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope #3 · SG · 6'5" 204 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right 5th Finger; Surgery Recovery
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; UCL Sprain
Zach Edey #14 · C · 7'3" 305 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Surgery Recovery
Ty Jerome #2 · SG · 6'5" 195 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Calf; Injury Management
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Injury Management
Taj Gibson #67 · C · 6'9" 232 · 41	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	112	52%	38	26	10	5	10	18	14	24	16-22	73%	27-50	54%	14-48	29%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	DAL	MEM

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DAL

1.11 55.6%

MEM

1.04 51.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DAL

74%

MEM

57%

Midrange

DAL

26%

MEM

50%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DAL

16.5

34%

52%

MEM

21.0

29%

44%

Free Throws

DAL

79%

MEM

73%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Mavericks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
K. Middleton	35	88%	17.5 / 20
D. Gafford	22	73%	11.0 / 15
C. Flagg	13	38%	6.5 / 17
M. Christie	13	54%	6.5 / 12
P. Washington	12	46%	6.0 / 13
B. Williams	12	60%	6.0 / 10
M. Bagley	6	60%	3.0 / 5
N. Marshall	5	31%	2.5 / 8
C. Martin	2	33%	1.0 / 3
R. Nembhard	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Wells	23	68%	11.5 / 17
G. Jackson	20	59%	10.0 / 17
J. Small	19	68%	9.5 / 14
T. Hendricks	17	71%	8.5 / 12
R. Rupert	13	54%	6.5 / 12
O. Prosper	9	32%	4.5 / 14
J. Mashack	8	33%	4.0 / 12
T. Burton	3	17%	1.5 / 9

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	27 110.4 23 112.4	DAL 117.6 +6.8 MEM 110.9
Pace	6 102.5 7 101.8	DAL 91.8 MEM 113.6 +21.8
Avg. Poss. Time	24 14.0 26 13.8	DAL 15.7 MEM 12.7 −3.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	28 52.7% 24 53.3%	DAL 54.3% +5.3% MEM 49.0%
TO %	13 13.5% 22 14.3%	DAL 16.2% MEM 8.5% −7.7%
ORB %	26 23.2% 19 24.7%	DAL 46.7% +20.3% MEM 26.4%
FTrt	6 28.7 21 25.1	DAL 25.8 +3.4 MEM 22.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	22 60.4% 6 67.4%	DAL 55.6% MEM 63.4% +7.8%
STL %	27 7.3% 11 8.7%	DAL 7.8% MEM 9.9% +2.1%
BLK %	16 9.0% 14 9.1%	DAL 18.0% +9.8% MEM 8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	28 55.2% 22 55.8%	DAL 55.6% +3.7% MEM 51.9%
Rim FG%	22 63.2% 26 62.8%	DAL 73.7% +17.0% MEM 56.7%
Mid FG%	18 43.1% 11 44.2%	DAL 26.1% MEM 50.0% +23.9%
3P %	26 34.4% 22 35.3%	DAL 34.4% +5.2% MEM 29.2%
FT %	28 75.5% 9 79.3%	DAL 79.2% +6.5% MEM 72.7%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	12 32.8% 26 28.6%	DAL 40.9% +10.2% MEM 30.6%
Mid Att. %	28 31.7% 19 27.8%	DAL 24.7% MEM 20.4% −4.3%
3P Att. %	26 35.5% 10 43.6%	DAL 34.4% MEM 49.0% +14.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	DAL	MEM
Possessions	102	101
Possession Minutes	26.7	21.3
Points	120	112
Rebounds	60	38
Assists	25	26
Steals	8	10
Blocks	9	5
Turnovers (Team)	19 (1)	10 (0)
Fouls	17	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	21 (5)	14 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (4)	24 (3)
Field Goals	45-93	41-98
At-the-Rim FG	28-38	17-30
Midrange FG	6-23	10-20
2-Point FG	34-61	27-50
3-Point FG	11-32	14-48
Free Throws	19-24	16-22
Fast Break Pts	20	12
2nd Chance Pts	32	11
Points in Paint	64	42
Pts off Turnovers	13	29
Bench Points	55	28
Biggest Lead	20	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg