Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, April 1, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	4	Nuggets	85%	128	130	121.5	107	105.2
	27	Jazz	15%	114	117	109.3	107	108.9

Prediction updated: Apr 2, 2026 01:00 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+16

-13

110

UTA

+13

-12

108

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.20 60.2%

UTA

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.3	37	69%	5	5	1	2	1	0	2	3	3-3	100%	2-10	20%	10-16	63%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	35.5	19	68%	9	6	2	0	1	3	3	6	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	33.1	15	58%	17	12	0	0	5	1	0	17	5-7	71%	5-9	56%	0-1	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	30.7	18	75%	6	4	0	0	0	2	2	4	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	28.0	6	33%	2	2	2	0	2	1	1	1	3-4	75%	0-3	0%	1-4	25%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	27.2	11	55%	3	1	4	1	0	2	0	3	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	13.2	13	65%	6	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	7-8	88%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	10.4	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	9.4	6	60%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	8.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	1.6	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	INACTIVE
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Sprain
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	130	60%	53	30	9	4	13	18	12	41	26-31	84%	28-52	54%	16-39	41%

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4 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	37.3	37	69%	5	5	1	2	1	0	2	3	3-3	100%	2-10	20%	10-16	63%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	35.5	19	68%	9	6	2	0	1	3	3	6	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	33.1	15	58%	17	12	0	0	5	1	0	17	5-7	71%	5-9	56%	0-1	0%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	30.7	18	75%	6	4	0	0	0	2	2	4	3-3	100%	6-8	75%	1-3	33%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	28.0	6	33%	2	2	2	0	2	1	1	1	3-4	75%	0-3	0%	1-4	25%

Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	27.2	11	55%	3	1	4	1	0	2	0	3	3-4	75%	4-6	67%	0-2	0%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	13.2	13	65%	6	0	0	1	1	2	3	3	7-8	88%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	10.4	3	75%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-2	50%
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	9.4	6	60%	3	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	0-0	-	3-3	100%	0-2	0%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	8.6	0	0%	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	1.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	1.6	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	INACTIVE
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Sprain
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	130	60%	53	30	9	4	13	18	12	41	26-31	84%	28-52	54%	16-39	41%

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27 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Cody Williams #5 · SG · 6'8" 190 · 21	37.6	9	41%	2	9	1	0	3	3	0	2	2-2	100%	2-7	29%	1-3	33%
Ace Bailey #19 · SF · 6'9" 200 · 20	33.5	12	33%	1	2	0	0	2	1	0	1	1-2	50%	4-8	50%	1-9	11%
Brice Sensabaugh #28 · PG · 6'6" 235 · 22	32.7	28	78%	6	4	1	1	4	3	1	5	0-1	0%	5-9	56%	6-9	67%
Kyle Filipowski #22 · C · 6'11" 250 · 22	30.6	25	74%	12	3	0	1	1	4	1	11	4-5	80%	6-7	86%	3-8	38%
Oscar Tshiebwe #34 · PF · 6'8" 255 · 26	20.5	8	50%	7	0	1	0	1	2	2	5	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-0	-

Kennedy Chandler #0 · PG · 6'0" 170 · 24	32.5	16	44%	5	6	1	1	0	3	2	3	6-8	75%	5-10	50%	0-4	0%
John Konchar #55 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 30	29.2	12	67%	10	6	2	1	1	2	6	4	3-5	60%	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Bez Mbeng #21 · NA · 6'4" 185 · 23	23.4	7	50%	1	2	1	0	0	4	0	1	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	0-1	0%
Svi Mykhailiuk #10 · SF · 6'7" 205 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 38	DNP – Coach's Decision
Elijah Harkless #16 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Soreness
Isaiah Collier #8 · PG · 6'4" 210 · 21	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Hamstring; Strain
Blake Hinson #2 · SF · 6'8" 230 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Keyonte George #3 · PG · 6'4" 185 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Jusuf Nurkić #30 · C · 6'11" 290 · 32	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Nose; Injury recovery
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Shoulder; Injury recovery
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Impingement
Jaren Jackson Jr. #20 · C · 6'10" 242 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury recovery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	54%	44	32	7	4	12	22	12	32	17-25	68%	32-58	55%	12-37	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	UTA

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.20 60.2%

UTA

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

63%

UTA

57%

Midrange

DEN

40%

UTA

54%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

24.0

41%

62%

UTA

18.0

32%

49%

Free Throws

DEN

84%

UTA

68%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	37	69%	18.5 / 27
C. Johnson	19	68%	9.5 / 14
C. Braun	18	75%	9.0 / 12
N. Jokić	15	58%	7.5 / 13
J. Valančiūnas	13	65%	6.5 / 10
B. Brown	11	55%	5.5 / 10
A. Gordon	6	33%	3.0 / 9
P. Watson	6	60%	3.0 / 5
T. Hardaway	3	75%	1.5 / 2
D. Roddy	2	50%	1.0 / 2
K. Simpson	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Sensabaugh	28	78%	14.0 / 18
K. Filipowski	25	74%	12.5 / 17
K. Chandler	16	44%	8.0 / 18
A. Bailey	12	33%	6.0 / 18
J. Konchar	12	67%	6.0 / 9
C. Williams	9	41%	4.5 / 11
O. Tshiebwe	8	50%	4.0 / 8
B. Mbeng	7	50%	3.5 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 22 112.9	DEN 121.5 +12.1 UTA 109.3
Pace	19 99.4 2 103.4	DEN 105.2 UTA 108.9 +3.7
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 27 13.8	DEN 13.7 UTA 13.2 −0.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 20 53.6%	DEN 57.1% +4.5% UTA 52.6%
TO %	3 12.1% 23 14.4%	DEN 11.8% UTA 10.2% −1.6%
ORB %	24 23.6% 12 26.2%	DEN 27.3% +4.7% UTA 22.6%
FTrt	4 29.4 10 27.7	DEN 34.1 +7.8 UTA 26.3
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 2 69.6%	DEN 68.2% UTA 72.7% +4.5%
STL %	30 6.8% 14 8.5%	DEN 8.4% +1.9% UTA 6.5%
BLK %	29 7.6% 30 7.5%	DEN 6.9% UTA 7.7% +0.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 18 56.4%	DEN 60.2% +6.0% UTA 54.2%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 17 64.5%	DEN 62.5% +5.8% UTA 56.7%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 8 44.4%	DEN 40.0% UTA 53.6% +13.6%
3P %	1 39.6% 25 34.5%	DEN 41.0% +8.6% UTA 32.4%
FT %	5 80.8% 13 78.6%	DEN 83.9% +15.9% UTA 68.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 17 31.3%	DEN 35.2% +3.6% UTA 31.6%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 23 28.4%	DEN 22.0% −7.5% UTA 29.5%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 21 40.3%	DEN 42.9% +3.9% UTA 38.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	UTA
Possessions	107	107
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	130	117
Rebounds	53	44
Assists	30	32
Steals	9	7
Blocks	4	4
Turnovers (Team)	13 (1)	12 (0)
Fouls	18	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	12 (1)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	41 (2)	32 (2)
Field Goals	44-91	44-95
At-the-Rim FG	20-32	17-30
Midrange FG	8-20	15-28
2-Point FG	28-52	32-58
3-Point FG	16-39	12-37
Free Throws	26-31	17-25
Fast Break Pts	18	21
2nd Chance Pts	23	16
Points in Paint	54	62
Pts off Turnovers	15	21
Bench Points	35	35
Biggest Lead	18	0

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg