Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, April 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	29	Wizards	11%	110	136	124.8	109	107.4
	11	Heat	89%	126	152	140.7	108	109.7

Prediction updated: Apr 4, 2026 06:36 PM

Scoring Opportunities

WAS

100

+18

-9

118

MIA

+16

-14

110

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.15 57.6%

MIA

1.39 69.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · C · 6'9" 180 · 20	36.9	31	86%	5	0	5	0	0	1	1	4	5-6	83%	10-13	77%	2-4	50%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	26.9	11	42%	2	5	2	0	2	2	0	2	0-1	0%	1-5	20%	3-8	38%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	25.2	11	42%	3	4	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-5	20%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	25.1	12	40%	3	2	2	3	0	1	1	2	2-4	50%	5-11	45%	0-2	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	21.9	6	50%	5	3	0	0	0	3	3	2	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	25.0	20	77%	2	7	0	0	3	2	1	1	5-6	83%	3-5	60%	3-5	60%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	24.7	19	63%	2	2	1	1	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	5-10	50%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	20.5	12	60%	10	2	1	0	0	2	6	4	3-3	100%	3-7	43%	1-2	50%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	18.9	14	78%	3	1	1	1	0	6	1	2	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-4	50%
Julian Reese #15 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23	10.5	0	0%	9	2	0	0	0	0	4	5	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	4.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Capsulitis
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain; Right Quad Contusion
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	58%	44	28	12	5	9	25	17	27	19-24	79%	33-66	50%	17-40	43%

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29 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Will Riley #27 · C · 6'9" 180 · 20	36.9	31	86%	5	0	5	0	0	1	1	4	5-6	83%	10-13	77%	2-4	50%
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	26.9	11	42%	2	5	2	0	2	2	0	2	0-1	0%	1-5	20%	3-8	38%
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	25.2	11	42%	3	4	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	4-8	50%	1-5	20%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SF · 6'7" 195 · 22	25.1	12	40%	3	2	2	3	0	1	1	2	2-4	50%	5-11	45%	0-2	0%
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	21.9	6	50%	5	3	0	0	0	3	3	2	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	0-0	-

Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	25.0	20	77%	2	7	0	0	3	2	1	1	5-6	83%	3-5	60%	3-5	60%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	24.7	19	63%	2	2	1	1	2	3	0	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	5-10	50%
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	20.5	12	60%	10	2	1	0	0	2	6	4	3-3	100%	3-7	43%	1-2	50%
Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	18.9	14	78%	3	1	1	1	0	6	1	2	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-4	50%
Julian Reese #15 · SF · 6'9" 230 · 23	10.5	0	0%	9	2	0	0	0	0	4	5	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	4.3	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Capsulitis
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain; Right Quad Contusion
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	136	58%	44	28	12	5	9	25	17	27	19-24	79%	33-66	50%	17-40	43%

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11 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	26.2	21	81%	2	3	1	1	1	3	2	0	3-4	75%	3-6	50%	4-5	80%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	25.6	12	67%	4	6	0	0	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-5	40%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 29	24.2	14	78%	9	7	1	0	2	1	0	9	6-7	86%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Pelle Larsson #9 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 25	23.8	16	67%	7	4	0	1	3	1	1	6	4-6	67%	6-8	75%	0-2	0%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SG · 6'7" 220 · 30	19.0	8	100%	1	4	1	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%

Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	35.8	24	75%	19	2	0	7	1	4	5	14	1-2	50%	7-9	78%	3-6	50%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	32.0	32	76%	3	4	1	0	2	0	0	3	7-7	100%	11-16	69%	1-2	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	27.8	14	64%	3	9	0	2	3	3	0	3	4-6	67%	2-4	50%	2-5	40%
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	12.9	5	42%	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-4	25%
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	12.1	6	50%	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	0-3	0%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	0.6	0	0%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	NWT – Personal
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 25	INACTIVE
Terry Rozier #2 · PG · 6'1" 195 · 32	Inactive - Not With Team
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	Inactive – Return to Competition Reconditioning
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	152	70%	49	42	6	11	14	17	10	39	27-34	79%	37-54	69%	17-39	44%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	WAS	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

WAS

1.15 57.6%

MIA

1.39 69.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

WAS

63%

MIA

73%

Midrange

WAS

38%

MIA

44%

3PT | Effective 3PT

WAS

25.5

43%

64%

MIA

25.5

44%

65%

Free Throws

WAS

79%

MIA

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
W. Riley	31	86%	15.5 / 18
S. Cooper	20	77%	10.0 / 13
J. Hardy	19	63%	9.5 / 15
J. Watkins	14	78%	7.0 / 9
B. Coulibaly	12	40%	6.0 / 15
J. Champagnie	12	60%	6.0 / 10
B. Carrington	11	42%	5.5 / 13
T. Johnson	11	42%	5.5 / 13
A. Gill	6	50%	3.0 / 6
J. Reese	0	-	0.0 / 2
L. Black	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez	32	76%	16.0 / 21
K. Ware	24	75%	12.0 / 16
A. Wiggins	21	81%	10.5 / 13
P. Larsson	16	67%	8.0 / 12
B. Adebayo	14	78%	7.0 / 9
K. Jakučionis	14	64%	7.0 / 11
D. Mitchell	12	67%	6.0 / 9
S. Fontecchio	8	100%	4.0 / 4
D. Smith	6	50%	3.0 / 6
N. Jović	5	42%	2.5 / 6

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	29 109.7 12 115.8	WAS 124.8 MIA 140.7 +16.0
Pace	5 102.5 1 104.3	WAS 107.4 MIA 109.7 +2.3
Avg. Poss. Time	23 14.0 30 13.1	WAS 13.4 MIA 13.1 −0.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 53.5% 18 54.2%	WAS 55.2% MIA 67.2% +12.0%
TO %	26 14.7% 5 12.6%	WAS 7.2% −5.0% MIA 12.2%
ORB %	21 24.0% 17 25.4%	WAS 30.4% +3.4% MIA 27.0%
FTrt	26 23.5 14 26.8	WAS 22.6 MIA 36.6 +14.0
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	24 59.9% 10 66.3%	WAS 56.0% MIA 77.8% +21.8%
STL %	22 7.8% 17 8.3%	WAS 11.0% +5.4% MIA 5.6%
BLK %	9 10.0% 28 7.9%	WAS 9.3% MIA 16.7% +7.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	26 55.4% 15 56.8%	WAS 57.6% MIA 69.7% +12.1%
Rim FG%	15 64.7% 20 63.6%	WAS 62.5% MIA 73.3% +10.8%
Mid FG%	26 41.3% 21 42.4%	WAS 38.2% MIA 44.4% +6.2%
3P %	16 35.9% 11 36.1%	WAS 42.5% MIA 43.6% +1.1%
FT %	23 76.6% 11 79.2%	WAS 79.2% MIA 79.4% +0.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	22 30.6% 11 32.9%	WAS 30.2% MIA 48.4% +18.2%
Mid Att. %	25 29.1% 17 26.5%	WAS 32.1% MIA 9.7% −22.4%
3P Att. %	20 40.3% 18 40.6%	WAS 37.7% MIA 41.9% +4.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	WAS	MIA
Possessions	109	108
Possession Minutes	24.4	23.6
Points	136	152
Rebounds	44	49
Assists	28	42
Steals	12	6
Blocks	5	11
Turnovers (Team)	9 (0)	14 (1)
Fouls	25	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	17 (1)	10 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	27 (1)	39 (1)
Field Goals	50-106	54-93
At-the-Rim FG	20-32	33-45
Midrange FG	13-34	4-9
2-Point FG	33-66	37-54
3-Point FG	17-40	17-39
Free Throws	19-24	27-34
Fast Break Pts	24	36
2nd Chance Pts	23	23
Points in Paint	58	74
Pts off Turnovers	25	11
Bench Points	65	81
Biggest Lead	2	35

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg