Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, April 4, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	3	Spurs	52%	120	134	121.8	110	101.2
	7	Nuggets	48%	119	136	127.1	107	95.4

Prediction updated: Apr 4, 2026 06:36 PM

Scoring Opportunities

SAS

100

+16

-10

116

DEN

101

+12

-6

113

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.3%

DEN

1.19 59.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	40.4	14	37%	4	4	1	0	2	4	0	4	0-0	-	7-13	54%	0-6	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	40.3	20	59%	5	9	0	0	4	6	4	1	2-2	100%	9-13	69%	0-4	0%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	39.6	34	68%	18	7	1	5	1	3	2	16	16-17	94%	6-11	55%	2-6	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	39.2	18	60%	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	3-8	38%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.0	18	75%	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	6-9	67%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.2	12	86%	3	3	0	0	2	3	1	2	0-1	0%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	17.4	10	42%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	16.5	8	100%	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	13.4	0	0%	5	1	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	4.9	0	0%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	INACTIVE
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	134	58%	50	29	5	6	10	22	12	38	25-27	93%	32-56	57%	15-45	33%

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3 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	40.4	14	37%	4	4	1	0	2	4	0	4	0-0	-	7-13	54%	0-6	0%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	40.3	20	59%	5	9	0	0	4	6	4	1	2-2	100%	9-13	69%	0-4	0%
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	39.6	34	68%	18	7	1	5	1	3	2	16	16-17	94%	6-11	55%	2-6	33%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	39.2	18	60%	5	2	0	1	0	0	0	5	3-3	100%	3-6	50%	3-8	38%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	33.0	18	75%	5	2	0	0	0	1	1	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	6-9	67%

Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	20.2	12	86%	3	3	0	0	2	3	1	2	0-1	0%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 26	17.4	10	42%	2	0	0	0	0	2	1	1	4-4	100%	3-4	75%	0-6	0%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	16.5	8	100%	1	1	1	0	1	1	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-3	67%
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	13.4	0	0%	5	1	1	0	0	1	2	3	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	4.9	0	0%	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	DNP – Coach's Decision
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	DNP – Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	DNP – Coach's Decision
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	INACTIVE
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	134	58%	50	29	5	6	10	22	12	38	25-27	93%	32-56	57%	15-45	33%

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7 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	45.8	15	63%	4	10	1	0	2	5	0	4	0-0	-	3-6	50%	3-7	43%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	44.0	40	61%	8	13	0	3	0	4	1	7	13-15	87%	12-20	60%	1-5	20%
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	41.1	15	63%	6	3	0	0	2	4	1	5	0-0	-	6-8	75%	1-4	25%
Cameron Johnson #23 · SF · 6'8" 210 · 30	39.2	17	77%	7	1	2	2	1	0	1	6	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	4-8	50%
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	39.2	21	62%	8	4	0	1	0	2	2	6	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	5-11	45%

Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	26.1	10	71%	5	0	1	0	0	1	0	5	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Julian Strawther #3 · SG · 6'6" 205 · 24	11.1	6	60%	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-4	50%
Bruce Brown #11 · PG · 6'4" 202 · 30	11.0	5	36%	2	1	1	0	1	3	1	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	1-3	33%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	5.5	7	50%	3	0	0	0	0	2	2	1	1-2	50%	3-6	50%	0-0	-
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	2.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	DNP – Coach's Decision
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Hip; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	136	60%	44	34	5	6	6	22	8	36	19-22	86%	30-55	55%	19-46	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	SAS	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

SAS

1.17 58.3%

DEN

1.19 59.6%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

SAS

67%

DEN

55%

Midrange

SAS

46%

DEN

54%

3PT | Effective 3PT

SAS

22.5

33%

50%

DEN

28.5

41%

62%

Free Throws

SAS

93%

DEN

86%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
V. Wembanyama	34	68%	17.0 / 25
S. Castle	20	59%	10.0 / 17
D. Vassell	18	60%	9.0 / 15
J. Champagnie	18	75%	9.0 / 12
D. Fox	14	37%	7.0 / 19
D. Harper	12	86%	6.0 / 7
K. Johnson	10	42%	5.0 / 12
H. Barnes	8	100%	4.0 / 4
L. Kornet	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
N. Jokić	40	61%	20.0 / 33
C. Braun	21	62%	10.5 / 17
C. Johnson	17	77%	8.5 / 11
J. Murray	15	63%	7.5 / 12
A. Gordon	15	63%	7.5 / 12
T. Hardaway	10	71%	5.0 / 7
J. Valančiūnas	7	50%	3.5 / 7
J. Strawther	6	60%	3.0 / 5
B. Brown	5	36%	2.5 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	3 118.9 1 121.3	SAS 121.8 DEN 127.1 +5.3
Pace	13 100.5 19 99.4	SAS 101.2 +5.7 DEN 95.4
Avg. Poss. Time	18 14.2 9 14.7	SAS 14.2 −0.9 DEN 15.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	7 55.9% 1 57.7%	SAS 54.0% DEN 57.9% +3.9%
TO %	4 12.5% 3 12.1%	SAS 8.9% DEN 5.1% −3.8%
ORB %	10 26.2% 24 23.6%	SAS 25.0% +7.6% DEN 17.4%
FTrt	12 27.3 4 29.4	SAS 26.7 +4.9 DEN 21.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	13 64.6% 9 66.5%	SAS 61.7% DEN 69.4% +7.7%
STL %	24 7.5% 30 6.8%	SAS 4.5% DEN 4.7% +0.2%
BLK %	10 10.0% 29 7.6%	SAS 10.9% +0.2% DEN 10.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	6 58.1% 1 60.1%	SAS 58.3% DEN 59.6% +1.3%
Rim FG%	9 65.8% 12 65.1%	SAS 66.7% +11.7% DEN 55.0%
Mid FG%	5 45.1% 2 47.0%	SAS 46.2% DEN 54.3% +8.1%
3P %	15 35.9% 1 39.6%	SAS 33.3% DEN 41.3% +8.0%
FT %	12 78.7% 5 80.8%	SAS 92.6% +6.2% DEN 86.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	7 34.4% 19 31.1%	SAS 29.7% +9.9% DEN 19.8%
Mid Att. %	7 23.4% 21 28.1%	SAS 25.7% −8.9% DEN 34.7%
3P Att. %	15 42.2% 17 40.8%	SAS 44.6% DEN 45.5% +1.0%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	SAS	DEN
Possessions	110	107
Possession Minutes	26.1	26.9
Points	134	136
Rebounds	50	44
Assists	29	34
Steals	5	5
Blocks	6	6
Turnovers (Team)	10 (1)	6 (0)
Fouls	22	22
Off. Rebounds (Team)	12 (4)	8 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (4)	36 (5)
Field Goals	47-101	49-101
At-the-Rim FG	20-30	11-20
Midrange FG	12-26	19-35
2-Point FG	32-56	30-55
3-Point FG	15-45	19-46
Free Throws	25-27	19-22
Fast Break Pts	12	18
2nd Chance Pts	12	14
Points in Paint	54	42
Pts off Turnovers	8	21
Bench Points	30	28
Biggest Lead	13	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg