Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, April 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Heat	79%	122	140	135.9	103	106.3
	27	Wizards	21%	112	117	113.6	103	99.8

Prediction updated: Apr 10, 2026 10:36 PM

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+13

-18

WAS

+11

-13

101

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.44 72.2%

WAS

1.16 57.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 29	38.5	20	67%	11	8	1	1	2	0	0	11	3-3	100%	4-8	50%	3-6	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	30.9	16	80%	5	4	2	0	2	2	1	4	5-6	83%	1-2	50%	3-5	60%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · PG · 6'7" 220 · 30	26.7	24	109%	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	3	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	6-8	75%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	22.9	11	69%	3	5	1	0	4	2	2	1	3-5	60%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	21.6	12	86%	8	3	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-4	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	36.1	23	82%	4	8	0	0	4	3	1	3	0-0	-	7-10	70%	3-4	75%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 25	29.6	10	50%	4	0	2	0	1	2	2	2	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	26.6	24	67%	0	6	1	0	3	5	0	0	7-8	88%	7-11	64%	1-3	33%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 26	1.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Soreness
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	72%	40	37	8	1	18	20	9	31	22-26	85%	29-45	64%	20-37	54%

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 29	38.5	20	67%	11	8	1	1	2	0	0	11	3-3	100%	4-8	50%	3-6	50%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	30.9	16	80%	5	4	2	0	2	2	1	4	5-6	83%	1-2	50%	3-5	60%
Simone Fontecchio #0 · PG · 6'7" 220 · 30	26.7	24	109%	4	2	1	0	1	2	1	3	2-2	100%	2-2	100%	6-8	75%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	22.9	11	69%	3	5	1	0	4	2	2	1	3-5	60%	1-2	50%	2-4	50%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	21.6	12	86%	8	3	0	0	0	1	2	6	0-0	-	3-3	100%	2-4	50%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	36.1	23	82%	4	8	0	0	4	3	1	3	0-0	-	7-10	70%	3-4	75%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SG · 6'6" 230 · 25	29.6	10	50%	4	0	2	0	1	2	2	2	2-2	100%	4-6	67%	0-3	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	26.6	24	67%	0	6	1	0	3	5	0	0	7-8	88%	7-11	64%	1-3	33%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	3.1	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 26	1.4	0	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	1.4	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Groin; Soreness
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Contusion
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Soreness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	140	72%	40	37	8	1	18	20	9	31	22-26	85%	29-45	64%	20-37	54%

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27 Washington Wizards

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Reese #15 · C · 6'9" 230 · 23	36.8	10	45%	6	3	2	1	0	2	2	4	0-0	-	5-11	45%	0-0	-
Anthony Gill #16 · PF · 6'7" 230 · 33	35.1	10	71%	3	1	1	0	1	2	0	3	2-3	67%	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Bub Carrington #7 · PG · 6'4" 190 · 21	33.9	30	94%	2	4	1	0	3	3	0	2	2-2	100%	5-8	63%	6-7	86%
Leaky Black #14 · SF · 6'6" 209 · 27	31.7	8	36%	2	3	2	0	4	5	0	2	0-0	-	1-3	33%	2-8	25%
Bilal Coulibaly #0 · SG · 6'7" 195 · 22	22.2	25	69%	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	2	5-5	100%	7-13	54%	2-3	67%

Jamir Watkins #5 · SG · 6'6" 210 · 25	31.0	7	32%	5	1	2	0	1	2	1	4	2-4	50%	1-5	20%	1-4	25%
Will Riley #27 · SF · 6'9" 180 · 20	28.2	16	47%	3	2	1	0	3	2	0	3	0-0	-	5-9	56%	2-8	25%
Sharife Cooper #13 · PG · 6'0" 176 · 25	21.1	11	79%	1	7	1	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	4-6	67%	1-1	100%
Jaden Hardy #8 · SG · 6'3" 198 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Tristan Vukcevic #00 · C · 7'0" 220 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Justin Champagnie #9 · SF · 6'6" 206 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; Contusion
Tre Johnson #12 · SG · 6'5" 190 · 20	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Sprain; Low Back Strain
Anthony Davis #23 · PF · 6'10" 253 · 33	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Finger; Sprain
Trae Young #3 · PG · 6'2" 164 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Pain; Right Quad Contusion
Kyshawn George #18 · SG · 6'8" 200 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Elbow; Sprain
Alex Sarr #20 · C · 7'0" 205 · 21	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Big Toe; Capsulitis
Cam Whitmore #1 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Deep Vein Thrombosis
D'Angelo Russell #28 · PG · 6'3" 193 · 30	Inactive - Not With Team
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	58%	27	26	11	2	13	17	6	21	11-14	79%	32-61	52%	14-31	45%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	WAS
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	WAS

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.44 72.2%

WAS

1.16 57.9%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

78%

WAS

67%

Midrange

MIA

44%

WAS

47%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

30.0

54%

81%

WAS

21.0

45%

68%

Free Throws

MIA

85%

WAS

79%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
S. Fontecchio	24	109%	12.0 / 11
P. Larsson	24	67%	12.0 / 18
J. Jaquez	23	82%	11.5 / 14
B. Adebayo	20	67%	10.0 / 15
K. Jakučionis	16	80%	8.0 / 10
K. Ware	12	86%	6.0 / 7
A. Wiggins	11	69%	5.5 / 8
K. Johnson	10	50%	5.0 / 10
J. Young	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Wizards

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Carrington	30	94%	15.0 / 16
B. Coulibaly	25	69%	12.5 / 18
W. Riley	16	47%	8.0 / 17
S. Cooper	11	79%	5.5 / 7
J. Reese	10	45%	5.0 / 11
A. Gill	10	71%	5.0 / 7
L. Black	8	36%	4.0 / 11
J. Watkins	7	32%	3.5 / 11

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	12 115.8 29 109.7	MIA 135.9 +22.3 WAS 113.6
Pace	1 104.3 5 102.5	MIA 106.3 +6.5 WAS 99.8
Avg. Poss. Time	30 13.1 23 14.0	MIA 13.5 −0.9 WAS 14.4
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	18 54.2% 21 53.5%	MIA 72.0% +14.4% WAS 57.6%
TO %	5 12.6% 26 14.7%	MIA 16.9% WAS 12.5% −4.4%
ORB %	17 25.4% 21 24.0%	MIA 30.0% +13.8% WAS 16.2%
FTrt	14 26.8 26 23.5	MIA 31.7 +16.5 WAS 15.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	10 66.3% 24 59.9%	MIA 75.5% +19.0% WAS 56.5%
STL %	17 8.3% 22 7.8%	MIA 7.8% WAS 10.7% +2.9%
BLK %	28 7.9% 9 10.0%	MIA 1.6% WAS 4.4% +2.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	15 56.8% 26 55.4%	MIA 72.2% +14.3% WAS 57.9%
Rim FG%	20 63.6% 15 64.7%	MIA 77.8% +11.1% WAS 66.7%
Mid FG%	21 42.4% 26 41.3%	MIA 44.4% WAS 46.5% +2.1%
3P %	11 36.1% 16 35.9%	MIA 54.1% +8.9% WAS 45.2%
FT %	11 79.2% 23 76.6%	MIA 84.6% +6.0% WAS 78.6%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	11 32.9% 22 30.6%	MIA 32.9% +13.4% WAS 19.6%
Mid Att. %	17 26.5% 25 29.1%	MIA 22.0% −24.8% WAS 46.7%
3P Att. %	18 40.6% 20 40.3%	MIA 45.1% +11.4% WAS 33.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	WAS
Possessions	103	103
Possession Minutes	23.3	24.8
Points	140	117
Rebounds	40	27
Assists	37	26
Steals	8	11
Blocks	1	2
Turnovers (Team)	18 (1)	13 (1)
Fouls	20	17
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (4)	6 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (5)	21 (1)
Field Goals	49-82	46-92
At-the-Rim FG	21-27	12-18
Midrange FG	8-18	20-43
2-Point FG	29-45	32-61
3-Point FG	20-37	14-31
Free Throws	22-26	11-14
Fast Break Pts	24	9
2nd Chance Pts	19	10
Points in Paint	58	50
Pts off Turnovers	26	18
Bench Points	57	34
Biggest Lead	25	2

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg