Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, April 10, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	19	Thunder	61%	112	107	103.9	103	120.1
	24	Nuggets	39%	108	127	123.3	103	90.2

Prediction updated: Apr 11, 2026 12:55 AM

Scoring Opportunities

OKC

+18

-13

108

DEN

+15

-16

102

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

0.99 49.5%

DEN

1.25 62.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

19 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	38.5	14	58%	2	11	4	0	8	3	2	0	0-0	-	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	37.4	23	57%	12	5	0	1	0	2	3	9	4-4	100%	5-8	63%	3-10	30%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	25.4	15	68%	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-8	38%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · PF · 6'5" 190 · 27	25.1	13	54%	3	3	3	0	0	2	1	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	2-6	33%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	20.4	5	36%	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%

Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	33.4	14	58%	9	2	2	0	2	3	2	7	3-4	75%	4-7	57%	1-3	33%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.5	15	34%	12	1	2	0	2	2	7	5	0-0	-	6-16	38%	1-6	17%
Payton Sandfort #14 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	28.3	8	44%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Soreness
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Tendinitis
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Injury Management
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Oblique; Injury Management
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Soleus; Injury Management
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	Inactive – Rest \| Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	50%	46	25	11	1	13	15	15	31	9-12	75%	28-55	51%	14-44	32%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

19 Oklahoma City Thunder

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Topić #44 · PG · 6'6" 200 · 21	38.5	14	58%	2	11	4	0	8	3	2	0	0-0	-	4-9	44%	2-3	67%
Branden Carlson #15 · C · 7'0" 220 · 27	37.4	23	57%	12	5	0	1	0	2	3	9	4-4	100%	5-8	63%	3-10	30%
Jared McCain #3 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	25.4	15	68%	1	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-3	100%	3-8	38%
Aaron Wiggins #21 · PF · 6'5" 190 · 27	25.1	13	54%	3	3	3	0	0	2	1	2	1-2	50%	3-5	60%	2-6	33%
Luguentz Dort #5 · SF · 6'4" 220 · 27	20.4	5	36%	3	1	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%

Brooks Barnhizer #23 · SG · 6'5" 230 · 24	33.4	14	58%	9	2	2	0	2	3	2	7	3-4	75%	4-7	57%	1-3	33%
Kenrich Williams #34 · PF · 6'7" 210 · 31	31.5	15	34%	12	1	2	0	2	2	7	5	0-0	-	6-16	38%	1-6	17%
Payton Sandfort #14 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 24	28.3	8	44%	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	1-4	25%
Cason Wallace #22 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 22	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Soreness
Jaylin Williams #6 · PF · 6'9" 240 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Achilles; Tendinitis
Ajay Mitchell #25 · SG · 6'4" 190 · 24	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Injury Management
Isaiah Joe #11 · SG · 6'4" 165 · 27	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Jalen Williams #8 · SG · 6'5" 211 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Chet Holmgren #7 · C · 7'1" 208 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Spasms
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 · PG · 6'6" 195 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Oblique; Injury Management
Thomas Sorber #12 · C · 6'9" 250 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right ACL; Surgical Recovery
Isaiah Hartenstein #55 · C · 7'0" 250 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Soleus; Injury Management
Alex Caruso #9 · SG · 6'5" 186 · 32	Inactive – Rest \| Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	107	50%	46	25	11	1	13	15	15	31	9-12	75%	28-55	51%	14-44	32%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

24 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Strawther #3 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 24	33.5	22	61%	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	4	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	4-7	57%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	32.2	23	72%	17	4	0	2	3	1	6	11	4-4	100%	8-12	67%	1-2	50%
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	27.6	13	46%	1	3	1	0	0	1	0	1	2-3	67%	1-3	33%	3-9	33%
Bruce Brown #11 · PF · 6'4" 202 · 30	25.6	10	56%	8	6	2	0	4	1	1	7	0-0	-	2-6	33%	2-3	67%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	23.3	9	75%	4	3	0	0	2	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	3-3	100%

Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	29.6	13	59%	4	4	0	0	2	0	0	4	0-0	-	2-5	40%	3-6	50%
David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	25.7	21	81%	2	0	2	1	2	2	0	2	2-2	100%	5-6	83%	3-6	50%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 25	19.9	7	50%	1	3	2	0	0	1	0	1	0-0	-	2-2	100%	1-5	20%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	13.7	5	63%	6	2	0	3	2	2	2	4	0-0	-	1-2	50%	1-2	50%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	6.7	2	100%	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	2.1	2	100%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-0	-
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Injury Management/Right Hip Flexor Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Injury Management
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Impingement
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Wrist; Injury Management
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	127	62%	49	28	10	7	16	10	10	39	12-13	92%	26-50	52%	21-43	49%

Show Predictions

Enter Custom Minutes

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	OKC	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

OKC

0.99 49.5%

DEN

1.25 62.3%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

OKC

63%

DEN

65%

Midrange

OKC

39%

DEN

38%

3PT | Effective 3PT

OKC

21.0

32%

48%

DEN

31.5

49%

73%

Free Throws

OKC

75%

DEN

92%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Thunder

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Carlson	23	57%	11.5 / 20
J. McCain	15	68%	7.5 / 11
K. Williams	15	34%	7.5 / 22
N. Topić	14	58%	7.0 / 12
B. Barnhizer	14	58%	7.0 / 12
A. Wiggins	13	54%	6.5 / 12
P. Sandfort	8	44%	4.0 / 9
L. Dort	5	36%	2.5 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Valančiūnas	23	72%	11.5 / 16
J. Strawther	22	61%	11.0 / 18
D. Roddy	21	81%	10.5 / 13
T. Hardaway	13	46%	6.5 / 14
J. Pickett	13	59%	6.5 / 11
B. Brown	10	56%	5.0 / 9
T. Jones	9	75%	4.5 / 6
C. Jones	7	50%	3.5 / 7
Z. Nnaji	5	63%	2.5 / 4
K. Simpson	2	100%	1.0 / 1
D. Holmes	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	7 117.6 1 121.3	OKC 103.9 DEN 123.3 +19.4
Pace	15 100.3 19 99.4	OKC 120.1 +29.9 DEN 90.2
Avg. Poss. Time	20 14.1 9 14.7	OKC 12.0 −4.0 DEN 16.0
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	4 56.1% 1 57.7%	OKC 49.5% DEN 61.8% +12.3%
TO %	1 11.8% 3 12.1%	OKC 11.1% −3.6% DEN 14.7%
ORB %	28 22.3% 24 23.6%	OKC 27.8% +3.4% DEN 24.4%
FTrt	17 26.1 4 29.4	OKC 12.1 DEN 14.0 +1.9
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	25 59.8% 9 66.5%	OKC 59.5% DEN 59.6% +0.1%
STL %	4 9.6% 30 6.8%	OKC 10.7% +1.0% DEN 9.7%
BLK %	2 11.0% 29 7.6%	OKC 2.0% DEN 12.7% +10.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	4 58.5% 1 60.1%	OKC 49.5% DEN 62.3% +12.8%
Rim FG%	11 65.2% 12 65.1%	OKC 63.0% DEN 65.4% +2.4%
Mid FG%	1 47.6% 2 47.0%	OKC 39.3% +1.8% DEN 37.5%
3P %	9 36.5% 1 39.6%	OKC 31.8% DEN 48.8% +17.0%
FT %	3 81.7% 5 80.8%	OKC 75.0% DEN 92.3% +17.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	16 31.3% 19 31.1%	OKC 27.3% DEN 28.0% +0.7%
Mid Att. %	15 26.1% 21 28.1%	OKC 28.3% DEN 25.8% −2.5%
3P Att. %	13 42.6% 17 40.8%	OKC 44.4% DEN 46.2% +1.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	OKC	DEN
Possessions	103	103
Possession Minutes	20.6	27.4
Points	107	127
Rebounds	46	49
Assists	25	28
Steals	11	10
Blocks	1	7
Turnovers (Team)	13 (0)	16 (1)
Fouls	15	10
Off. Rebounds (Team)	15 (3)	10 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	31 (1)	39 (1)
Field Goals	42-99	47-93
At-the-Rim FG	17-27	17-26
Midrange FG	11-28	9-24
2-Point FG	28-55	26-50
3-Point FG	14-44	21-43
Free Throws	9-12	12-13
Fast Break Pts	9	16
2nd Chance Pts	14	17
Points in Paint	46	40
Pts off Turnovers	19	21
Bench Points	37	50
Biggest Lead	2	21

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg