Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, April 12, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	25	Hawks	18%	110	117	111.4	105	107.1
	7	Heat	82%	122	143	137.5	104	102.0

Prediction updated: Apr 12, 2026 10:01 PM

Scoring Opportunities

ATL

+17

-16

106

MIA

+13

-6

111

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.11 55.7%

MIA

1.29 64.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

25 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 21	38.9	17	57%	11	2	0	1	2	2	4	7	2-4	50%	6-10	60%	1-3	33%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	32.1	8	27%	4	6	0	0	1	3	0	4	3-4	75%	1-5	20%	1-8	13%
Corey Kispert #24 · SG · 6'6" 224 · 27	28.6	21	81%	3	2	0	0	2	1	1	2	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	5-9	56%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	23.9	11	69%	9	3	1	0	3	1	2	7	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	21.8	4	33%	5	2	0	0	0	0	3	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%

RayJ Dennis #00 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	26.6	10	50%	3	3	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%
Keshon Gilbert #51 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 23	25.5	11	61%	0	9	1	0	2	2	0	0	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Buddy Hield #8 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 33	21.4	31	86%	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	5-7	71%	7-11	64%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	21.3	4	29%	8	1	0	1	3	4	3	5	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Sprain
Gabe Vincent #4 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Index Finger; Sprain
Jonathan Kuminga #0 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right High Ankle; Sprain
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	Inactive – Rest
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 24	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	56%	46	31	3	2	16	17	13	33	12-18	67%	27-49	55%	17-44	39%

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25 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Asa Newell #14 · PF · 6'10" 220 · 21	38.9	17	57%	11	2	0	1	2	2	4	7	2-4	50%	6-10	60%	1-3	33%
Keaton Wallace #2 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 27	32.1	8	27%	4	6	0	0	1	3	0	4	3-4	75%	1-5	20%	1-8	13%
Corey Kispert #24 · SG · 6'6" 224 · 27	28.6	21	81%	3	2	0	0	2	1	1	2	2-3	67%	2-3	67%	5-9	56%
Zaccharie Risacher #10 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 21	23.9	11	69%	9	3	1	0	3	1	2	7	0-0	-	4-5	80%	1-3	33%
Tony Bradley #13 · C · 6'10" 248 · 28	21.8	4	33%	5	2	0	0	0	0	3	2	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%

RayJ Dennis #00 · PG · 6'1" 180 · 25	26.6	10	50%	3	3	0	0	2	4	0	3	0-0	-	2-4	50%	2-6	33%
Keshon Gilbert #51 · SG · 6'4" 200 · 23	25.5	11	61%	0	9	1	0	2	2	0	0	3-3	100%	4-7	57%	0-1	0%
Buddy Hield #8 · SG · 6'4" 220 · 33	21.4	31	86%	3	3	1	0	1	0	0	3	0-0	-	5-7	71%	7-11	64%
Christian Koloko #35 · C · 6'11" 225 · 26	21.3	4	29%	8	1	0	1	3	4	3	5	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	0-2	0%
Mouhamed Gueye #18 · PF · 6'11" 210 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Nickeil Alexander-Walker #7 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 28	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Great Toe; Sprain
Dyson Daniels #5 · SG · 6'7" 199 · 23	DND - Injury/Illness \| Left Great Toe; Sprain
Gabe Vincent #4 · PG · 6'2" 200 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Inflammation
Onyeka Okongwu #17 · C · 6'10" 240 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Index Finger; Sprain
Jonathan Kuminga #0 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Management
Jock Landale #31 · C · 6'11" 255 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right High Ankle; Sprain
CJ McCollum #3 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	Inactive – Rest
Jalen Johnson #1 · SF · 6'8" 219 · 24	Inactive – Rest
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	56%	46	31	3	2	16	17	13	33	12-18	67%	27-49	55%	17-44	39%

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7 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · PF · 6'9" 260 · 29	29.2	25	66%	10	3	3	2	0	0	2	8	2-4	50%	10-14	71%	1-4	25%
Kel'el Ware #7 · C · 7'0" 250 · 22	29.2	16	80%	7	1	1	0	1	2	1	6	0-2	0%	2-4	50%	4-5	80%
Andrew Wiggins #22 · SF · 6'7" 210 · 31	25.7	4	20%	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-5	20%	0-4	0%
Davion Mitchell #45 · PG · 6'0" 210 · 28	25.7	12	100%	2	1	1	0	1	2	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	2-2	100%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 26	22.3	5	28%	10	8	1	0	3	1	0	10	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-6	17%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.7	26	76%	1	5	0	0	0	0	1	0	1-2	50%	11-14	79%	1-3	33%
Keshad Johnson #16 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 25	25.4	12	75%	4	3	2	0	0	4	4	0	0-0	-	6-6	100%	0-2	0%
Norman Powell #24 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 33	22.9	25	63%	2	2	1	0	0	1	1	1	6-6	100%	5-10	50%	3-7	43%
Kasparas Jakučionis #25 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 20	19.5	8	133%	3	5	0	0	1	2	2	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	2-2	100%
Myron Gardner #15 · SF · 6'5" 225 · 25	6.1	2	50%	2	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Jahmir Young #17 · PG · 6'0" 185 · 26	2.8	3	150%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%
Vladislav Goldin #50 · C · 7'0" 255 · 25	2.8	3	150%	2	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	1-1	100%	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Trevor Keels #8 · SG · 6'3" 215 · 23	2.8	2	33%	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-1	0%
Pelle Larsson #9 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Lower Leg; Contusion
Simone Fontecchio #0 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Soreness
Dru Smith #12 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Big Toe; Sprain
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 23	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	143	64%	45	34	11	3	6	14	13	32	12-17	71%	43-66	65%	15-37	41%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA
Clock	Team	Event	ATL	MIA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

ATL

1.11 55.7%

MIA

1.29 64.4%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

ATL

64%

MIA

68%

Midrange

ATL

38%

MIA

58%

3PT | Effective 3PT

ATL

25.5

39%

58%

MIA

22.5

41%

61%

Free Throws

ATL

67%

MIA

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Hield	31	86%	15.5 / 18
C. Kispert	21	81%	10.5 / 13
A. Newell	17	57%	8.5 / 15
Z. Risacher	11	69%	5.5 / 8
K. Gilbert	11	61%	5.5 / 9
R. Dennis	10	50%	5.0 / 10
K. Wallace	8	27%	4.0 / 15
T. Bradley	4	33%	2.0 / 6
C. Koloko	4	29%	2.0 / 7

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jaquez	26	76%	13.0 / 17
B. Adebayo	25	66%	12.5 / 19
N. Powell	25	63%	12.5 / 20
K. Ware	16	80%	8.0 / 10
D. Mitchell	12	100%	6.0 / 6
K. Johnson	12	75%	6.0 / 8
K. Jakučionis	8	133%	4.0 / 3
T. Herro	5	28%	2.5 / 9
A. Wiggins	4	20%	2.0 / 10
J. Young	3	150%	1.5 / 1
V. Goldin	3	150%	1.5 / 1
M. Gardner	2	50%	1.0 / 2
T. Keels	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	14 115.1 12 115.8	ATL 111.4 MIA 137.5 +26.1
Pace	4 102.5 1 104.3	ATL 107.1 +5.0 MIA 102.0
Avg. Poss. Time	29 13.5 30 13.1	ATL 13.4 −0.7 MIA 14.1
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	10 55.4% 18 54.2%	ATL 56.5% MIA 63.6% +7.1%
TO %	8 13.0% 5 12.6%	ATL 14.4% MIA 6.0% −8.4%
ORB %	20 24.3% 17 25.4%	ATL 28.9% +0.6% MIA 28.3%
FTrt	27 23.4 14 26.8	ATL 19.4 +2.9 MIA 16.5
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	4 69.1% 10 66.3%	ATL 70.5% +11.9% MIA 58.6%
STL %	6 9.1% 17 8.3%	ATL 2.9% MIA 10.6% +7.7%
BLK %	18 8.8% 28 7.9%	ATL 3.0% MIA 6.1% +3.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	14 56.9% 15 56.8%	ATL 55.7% MIA 64.4% +8.7%
Rim FG%	21 63.3% 20 63.6%	ATL 63.6% MIA 68.1% +4.5%
Mid FG%	6 44.6% 21 42.4%	ATL 37.5% MIA 57.9% +20.4%
3P %	5 37.1% 11 36.1%	ATL 38.6% MIA 40.5% +1.9%
FT %	20 77.4% 11 79.2%	ATL 66.7% MIA 70.6% +3.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	13 32.1% 11 32.9%	ATL 35.5% MIA 45.6% +10.1%
Mid Att. %	9 25.0% 17 26.5%	ATL 17.2% −1.2% MIA 18.4%
3P Att. %	11 42.9% 18 40.6%	ATL 47.3% +11.4% MIA 35.9%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	ATL	MIA
Possessions	105	104
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	117	143
Rebounds	46	45
Assists	31	34
Steals	3	11
Blocks	2	3
Turnovers (Team)	16 (1)	6 (1)
Fouls	17	14
Off. Rebounds (Team)	13 (4)	13 (0)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	33 (3)	32 (4)
Field Goals	44-93	58-103
At-the-Rim FG	21-33	32-47
Midrange FG	6-16	11-19
2-Point FG	27-49	43-66
3-Point FG	17-44	15-37
Free Throws	12-18	12-17
Fast Break Pts	8	36
2nd Chance Pts	13	24
Points in Paint	48	80
Pts off Turnovers	16	22
Bench Points	56	81
Biggest Lead	0	26

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg