Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, April 12, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Nuggets	23%	110	128	128.0	100	94.1
	4	Spurs	77%	119	118	116.8	101	107.3

Prediction updated: Apr 13, 2026 12:31 AM

Scoring Opportunities

DEN

+22

-10

112

SAS

+18

-9

110

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.14 57.1%

SAS

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Strawther #3 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 24	34.4	25	60%	6	3	1	0	3	3	0	6	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-8	50%
Bruce Brown #11 · SG · 6'4" 202 · 30	28.2	14	88%	4	5	1	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	7-7	100%	0-1	0%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	20.8	5	36%	5	4	0	0	1	0	2	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	20.1	6	50%	2	2	0	0	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	18.3	23	72%	8	1	0	1	0	1	4	4	8-8	100%	6-10	60%	1-2	50%

David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	33.5	15	54%	13	2	1	0	0	3	7	6	3-3	100%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 25	31.8	13	108%	5	3	1	0	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	4-4	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	29.9	11	42%	3	6	0	1	2	0	0	3	2-4	50%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	18.9	16	50%	11	4	0	1	1	2	5	6	0-0	-	8-14	57%	0-2	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0-1	0%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Injury Management/Right Hip Flexor Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	57%	58	30	4	5	10	16	19	39	17-22	77%	39-70	56%	11-30	37%

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14 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Julian Strawther #3 · SF · 6'6" 205 · 24	34.4	25	60%	6	3	1	0	3	3	0	6	3-4	75%	5-11	45%	4-8	50%
Bruce Brown #11 · SG · 6'4" 202 · 30	28.2	14	88%	4	5	1	0	1	1	0	4	0-0	-	7-7	100%	0-1	0%
Tyus Jones #5 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 30	20.8	5	36%	5	4	0	0	1	0	2	3	0-0	-	1-3	33%	1-4	25%
Zeke Nnaji #22 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 25	20.1	6	50%	2	2	0	0	0	4	0	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-2	0%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 31	18.3	23	72%	8	1	0	1	0	1	4	4	8-8	100%	6-10	60%	1-2	50%

David Roddy #45 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 25	33.5	15	54%	13	2	1	0	0	3	7	6	3-3	100%	6-12	50%	0-1	0%
Curtis Jones #1 · SG · 6'3" 195 · 25	31.8	13	108%	5	3	1	0	1	2	1	4	1-2	50%	0-1	0%	4-4	100%
Jalen Pickett #24 · SG · 6'2" 202 · 26	29.9	11	42%	3	6	0	1	2	0	0	3	2-4	50%	3-8	38%	1-5	20%
Jonas Valančiūnas #17 · C · 6'11" 265 · 34	18.9	16	50%	11	4	0	1	1	2	5	6	0-0	-	8-14	57%	0-2	0%
DaRon Holmes II #14 · PF · 6'9" 225 · 24	4.2	0	0%	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	0-1	0%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
KJ Simpson #25 · PG · 6'2" 189 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Spencer Jones #21 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 25	DND - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Tim Hardaway Jr. #10 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 34	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Peyton Watson #8 · SF · 6'8" 200 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Strain
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ankle; Injury Management/Right Hip Flexor Strain
Cameron Johnson #23 · PF · 6'8" 210 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Injury Management
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hamstring; Injury Management
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Impingement
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	128	57%	58	30	4	5	10	16	19	39	17-22	77%	39-70	56%	11-30	37%

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4 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
De'Aaron Fox #4 · PG · 6'3" 185 · 28	33.3	24	52%	6	5	0	1	0	2	0	6	4-4	100%	4-7	57%	4-14	29%
Devin Vassell #24 · SF · 6'5" 200 · 26	33.1	19	68%	4	2	2	0	3	1	2	2	2-2	100%	4-5	80%	3-8	38%
Stephon Castle #5 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 21	29.4	10	42%	11	9	1	0	2	3	3	8	2-4	50%	1-7	14%	2-3	67%
Julian Champagnie #30 · PF · 6'7" 217 · 25	25.3	7	50%	4	1	0	1	1	1	1	3	0-0	-	2-3	67%	1-4	25%
Mason Plumlee #45 · C · 7'0" 254 · 36	15.8	2	100%	3	1	0	0	0	1	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-

Carter Bryant #11 · PF · 6'6" 220 · 20	30.3	13	50%	5	5	0	3	1	4	2	3	0-1	0%	5-6	83%	1-7	14%
Harrison Barnes #40 · PF · 6'7" 225 · 34	25.1	12	55%	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-0	-	3-6	50%	2-5	40%
Keldon Johnson #3 · SF · 6'6" 220 · 27	21.9	18	64%	6	1	0	0	1	4	2	4	4-6	67%	4-7	57%	2-5	40%
Dylan Harper #2 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 20	18.4	9	50%	3	1	1	0	0	2	2	1	1-1	100%	4-8	50%	0-1	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 34	5.6	2	100%	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jordan McLaughlin #0 · PG · 5'11" 185 · 30	1.8	2	100%	1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Harrison Ingram #55 · SF · 6'5" 230 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Lindy Waters III #43 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 29	DNP – Coach's Decision
Kelly Olynyk #8 · C · 7'0" 240 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Emanuel Miller #14 · PF · 6'5" 215 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Victor Wembanyama #1 · C · 7'4" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Ribcage; Soreness
Luke Kornet #7 · C · 7'1" 250 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Shoulder; Soreness
David Jones Garcia #25 · SF · 6'4" 210 · 24	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Foot; Surgery
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	118	54%	45	27	5	5	9	18	14	31	13-18	72%	30-52	58%	15-47	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS
Clock	Team	Event	DEN	SAS

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

DEN

1.14 57.1%

SAS

1.08 54.1%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

DEN

59%

SAS

67%

Midrange

DEN

52%

SAS

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

DEN

16.5

37%

55%

SAS

22.5

32%

48%

Free Throws

DEN

77%

SAS

72%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Strawther	25	60%	12.5 / 21
N. Jokić	23	72%	11.5 / 16
J. Valančiūnas	16	50%	8.0 / 16
D. Roddy	15	54%	7.5 / 14
B. Brown	14	88%	7.0 / 8
C. Jones	13	108%	6.5 / 6
J. Pickett	11	42%	5.5 / 13
Z. Nnaji	6	50%	3.0 / 6
T. Jones	5	36%	2.5 / 7
D. Holmes	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Fox	24	52%	12.0 / 23
D. Vassell	19	68%	9.5 / 14
K. Johnson	18	64%	9.0 / 14
C. Bryant	13	50%	6.5 / 13
H. Barnes	12	55%	6.0 / 11
S. Castle	10	42%	5.0 / 12
D. Harper	9	50%	4.5 / 9
J. Champagnie	7	50%	3.5 / 7
M. Plumlee	2	100%	1.0 / 1
B. Biyombo	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. McLaughlin	2	100%	1.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	1 121.3 3 118.9	DEN 128.0 +11.2 SAS 116.8
Pace	19 99.4 13 100.5	DEN 94.1 SAS 107.3 +13.2
Avg. Poss. Time	9 14.7 18 14.2	DEN 15.3 SAS 13.4 −1.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	1 57.7% 7 55.9%	DEN 55.5% +2.5% SAS 53.0%
TO %	3 12.1% 4 12.5%	DEN 9.9% SAS 7.8% −2.1%
ORB %	24 23.6% 10 26.2%	DEN 38.0% +11.6% SAS 26.4%
FTrt	4 29.4 12 27.3	DEN 22.0 +3.8 SAS 18.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	9 66.5% 13 64.6%	DEN 60.0% SAS 60.0%
STL %	30 6.8% 24 7.5%	DEN 4.0% SAS 5.0% +1.0%
BLK %	29 7.6% 10 10.0%	DEN 9.6% +2.5% SAS 7.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.09 and 2.09.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	1 60.1% 6 58.1%	DEN 57.1% +3.0% SAS 54.1%
Rim FG%	12 65.1% 9 65.8%	DEN 58.5% SAS 66.7% +8.2%
Mid FG%	2 47.0% 5 45.1%	DEN 51.7% +9.6% SAS 42.1%
3P %	1 39.6% 15 35.9%	DEN 36.7% +4.8% SAS 31.9%
FT %	5 80.8% 12 78.7%	DEN 77.3% +5.1% SAS 72.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	19 31.1% 7 34.4%	DEN 41.0% +7.7% SAS 33.3%
Mid Att. %	21 28.1% 7 23.4%	DEN 29.0% SAS 19.2% −9.8%
3P Att. %	17 40.8% 15 42.2%	DEN 30.0% SAS 47.5% +17.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.73 and 2.73.

Game Totals	DEN	SAS
Possessions	100	101
Possession Minutes	25.5	22.6
Points	128	118
Rebounds	58	45
Assists	30	27
Steals	4	5
Blocks	5	5
Turnovers (Team)	10 (2)	9 (0)
Fouls	16	18
Off. Rebounds (Team)	19 (3)	14 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	39 (1)	31 (0)
Field Goals	50-100	45-99
At-the-Rim FG	24-41	22-33
Midrange FG	15-29	8-19
2-Point FG	39-70	30-52
3-Point FG	11-30	15-47
Free Throws	17-22	13-18
Fast Break Pts	8	19
2nd Chance Pts	33	14
Points in Paint	62	54
Pts off Turnovers	16	14
Bench Points	55	56
Biggest Lead	23	5

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg