Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, October 24, 2026

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	25	Pelicans	18%	111	135	116.4	116	97.5
	9	Nuggets	82%	122	141	119.5	118	115.8

Prediction updated:

Scoring Opportunities

NOP

+14

-18

112

DEN

107

+19

-11

126

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

NOP

1.21 60.3%

DEN

1.12 56.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

25 New Orleans Pelicans

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trey Murphy III #25 · SF · 6'8" 206 · 26	36.9	26	72%	6	4	1	0	4	2	3	3	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	4-8	50%	+10.2
Dejounte Murray #5 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 30	34.5	22	55%	6	6	2	1	2	2	1	5	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	1-6	17%	+10.7
Zion Williamson #1 · PF · 6'6" 284 · 26	32.5	17	65%	1	2	2	2	3	5	1	0	3-5	60%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%	+6.8
Jeremiah Fears #0 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 20	23.5	10	38%	6	2	1	0	3	3	2	4	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	0-2	0%	+1.3
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 38	20.3	9	90%	9	2	0	1	0	0	1	8	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-	+6.8

Saddiq Bey #41 · G-F · 6'8" 215 · 28	25.5	14	58%	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	4	6-8	75%	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	+7.0
Derik Queen #22 · C · 6'9" 250 · 22	24.5	17	71%	8	2	0	0	0	3	2	6	5-5	100%	6-9	67%	0-1	0%	+7.8
Jordan Poole #3 · G · 6'4" 194 · 27	22.5	6	50%	3	7	1	1	2	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%	+5.8
Bennedict Mathurin #24 · G-F · 6'5" 210 · 24	20.5	9	50%	4	4	0	0	0	2	2	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-5	20%	+5.1
Herbert Jones #2 · F · 6'7" 206 · 28	16.5	2	33%	3	1	1	0	2	5	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%	+0.8
Karlo Matković #17 · F-C · 6'10" 231 · 26	7.8	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%	+0.7
Bryce McGowens #11 · G · 6'6" 190 · 24	DNP
Trendon Watford #9 · G-F · 6'8" 245 · 26	DNP
AJ Johnson #14 · G · 6'5" 160 · 22	DNP
Julian Reese #13 · F · 6'9" 230 · 23	G League - Two-Way
Jaron Pierre Jr. #10 · G · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Malik Dia F · 6'9" 250 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Yves Missi #21 · C · 6'11" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	135	60%	50	33	9	5	18	29	14	36	24-30	80%	39-61	64%	11-38	29%

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25 New Orleans Pelicans

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Trey Murphy III #25 · SF · 6'8" 206 · 26	36.9	26	72%	6	4	1	0	4	2	3	3	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	4-8	50%	+10.2
Dejounte Murray #5 · SG · 6'4" 180 · 30	34.5	22	55%	6	6	2	1	2	2	1	5	3-4	75%	8-12	67%	1-6	17%	+10.7
Zion Williamson #1 · PF · 6'6" 284 · 26	32.5	17	65%	1	2	2	2	3	5	1	0	3-5	60%	7-10	70%	0-1	0%	+6.8
Jeremiah Fears #0 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 20	23.5	10	38%	6	2	1	0	3	3	2	4	2-2	100%	4-10	40%	0-2	0%	+1.3
DeAndre Jordan #6 · C · 6'11" 265 · 38	20.3	9	90%	9	2	0	1	0	0	1	8	3-4	75%	3-3	100%	0-0	-	+6.8

Saddiq Bey #41 · G-F · 6'8" 215 · 28	25.5	14	58%	4	3	1	0	1	1	0	4	6-8	75%	1-2	50%	2-7	29%	+7.0
Derik Queen #22 · C · 6'9" 250 · 22	24.5	17	71%	8	2	0	0	0	3	2	6	5-5	100%	6-9	67%	0-1	0%	+7.8
Jordan Poole #3 · G · 6'4" 194 · 27	22.5	6	50%	3	7	1	1	2	3	1	2	0-0	-	0-1	0%	2-5	40%	+5.8
Bennedict Mathurin #24 · G-F · 6'5" 210 · 24	20.5	9	50%	4	4	0	0	0	2	2	2	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-5	20%	+5.1
Herbert Jones #2 · F · 6'7" 206 · 28	16.5	2	33%	3	1	1	0	2	5	1	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%	+0.8
Karlo Matković #17 · F-C · 6'10" 231 · 26	7.8	3	150%	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	1-1	100%	+0.7
Bryce McGowens #11 · G · 6'6" 190 · 24	DNP
Trendon Watford #9 · G-F · 6'8" 245 · 26	DNP
AJ Johnson #14 · G · 6'5" 160 · 22	DNP
Julian Reese #13 · F · 6'9" 230 · 23	G League - Two-Way
Jaron Pierre Jr. #10 · G · 6'5" 210 · 24	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Malik Dia F · 6'9" 250 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Yves Missi #21 · C · 6'11" 235 · 22	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Left Knee Contusion / Bone Bruise
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	135	60%	50	33	9	5	18	29	14	36	24-30	80%	39-61	64%	11-38	29%

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9 Denver Nuggets

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Nikola Jokić #15 · C · 6'11" 284 · 32	43.6	35	67%	15	10	2	3	6	5	4	11	8-8	100%	9-13	69%	3-10	30%	+18.1
Jamal Murray #27 · PG · 6'4" 215 · 30	42.9	42	68%	3	6	1	1	0	3	0	3	10-13	77%	4-9	44%	8-16	50%	+20.1
Christian Braun #0 · SG · 6'6" 220 · 26	40.4	15	63%	8	2	2	0	1	3	2	6	1-2	50%	7-8	88%	0-3	0%	+8.5
Aaron Gordon #32 · PF · 6'8" 235 · 31	36.8	7	32%	5	4	2	0	1	3	2	3	2-4	50%	1-3	33%	1-6	17%	+5.3
Bryce Hopkins #13 · SF · 6'7" 225 · 24	19.0	2	50%	2	1	0	0	0	3	0	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-1	0%	+1.3

Trevon Brazile #7 · F · 6'10" 226 · 24	28.1	17	65%	9	0	1	2	2	4	3	6	2-4	50%	3-4	75%	3-7	43%	+8.7
DeMar DeRozan #10 · G-F · 6'6" 220 · 37	23.6	12	50%	3	3	0	0	1	4	1	2	4-4	100%	4-8	50%	0-2	0%	+3.6
Cam Whitmore #00 · F · 6'6" 230 · 22	11.3	4	40%	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	0-2	0%	+2.2
Tyus Jones #5 · G · 6'0" 196 · 30	9.9	2	50%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2-2	100%	0-1	0%	0-0	-	+0.5
Marvin Bagley III #3 · F · 6'10" 235 · 28	9.4	5	83%	4	0	0	0	0	2	1	3	1-2	50%	2-2	100%	0-0	-	+2.7
Ryan Nembhard #9 · G · 5'11" 180 · 24	DNP
DaRon Holmes II #14 · F · 6'9" 225 · 24	DNP
Zeke Nnaji #22 · F-C · 6'10" 240 · 26	DNP
Spencer Jones #21 · F · 6'7" 225 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Bilateral Hamstring Injury Management
Julian Strawther #3 · G · 6'6" 205 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Left Knee Sprain
Cameron Johnson #23 · F · 6'8" 210 · 31	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Right Ankle Sprain
Alpha Diallo · 6'7" 210 · 29	Inactive - Injury/Illness · Right Wrist Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	265	141	56%	51	26	9	6	11	28	14	37	30-39	77%	33-52	63%	15-47	32%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	NOP	DEN
Clock	Team	Event	NOP	DEN

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

NOP

1.21 60.3%

DEN

1.12 56.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

NOP

78%

DEN

77%

Midrange

NOP

42%

DEN

45%

3PT | Effective 3PT

NOP

16.5

29%

43%

DEN

22.5

32%

48%

Free Throws

NOP

80%

DEN

77%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Pelicans

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Murphy	26	72%	13.0 / 18
D. Murray	22	55%	11.0 / 20
Z. Williamson	17	65%	8.5 / 13
D. Queen	17	71%	8.5 / 12
S. Bey	14	58%	7.0 / 12
J. Fears	10	38%	5.0 / 13
D. Jordan	9	90%	4.5 / 5
B. Mathurin	9	50%	4.5 / 9
J. Poole	6	50%	3.0 / 6
K. Matković	3	150%	1.5 / 1
H. Jones	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Nuggets

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Murray	42	68%	21.0 / 31
N. Jokić	35	67%	17.5 / 26
T. Brazile	17	65%	8.5 / 13
C. Braun	15	63%	7.5 / 12
D. DeRozan	12	50%	6.0 / 12
A. Gordon	7	32%	3.5 / 11
M. Bagley	5	83%	2.5 / 3
C. Whitmore	4	40%	2.0 / 5
B. Hopkins	2	50%	1.0 / 2
T. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	19 111.5 10 115.9	NOP 116.4 DEN 119.5 +3.1
Pace	4 102.0 25 97.8	NOP 97.5 DEN 115.8 +18.2
Avg. Poss. Time	22 14.3 6 14.9	NOP 14.8 DEN 12.4 −2.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	21 52.2% 8 55.0%	NOP 56.1% DEN 56.1%
TO %	18 15.2% 4 12.4%	NOP 13.8% DEN 9.4% −4.4%
ORB %	26 24.1% 22 24.8%	NOP 27.5% DEN 28.0% +0.5%
FTrt	1 37.2 8 29.6	NOP 30.3 DEN 39.4 +9.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	26 60.1% 11 66.7%	NOP 66.0% +11.8% DEN 54.2%
STL %	4 9.7% 7 9.1%	NOP 7.8% +0.2% DEN 7.6%
BLK %	11 10.5% 24 8.9%	NOP 9.6% DEN 9.8% +0.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.15 and 2.15.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	12 56.5% 9 56.9%	NOP 60.3% +4.3% DEN 56.0%
Rim FG%	26 60.8% 4 67.5%	NOP 78.4% +1.7% DEN 76.7%
Mid FG%	20 41.2% 7 46.1%	NOP 41.7% DEN 45.5% +3.8%
3P %	27 32.2% 14 35.4%	NOP 28.9% DEN 31.9% +3.0%
FT %	2 83.4% 11 79.5%	NOP 80.0% +3.1% DEN 76.9%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	1 44.0% 22 29.4%	NOP 37.4% +7.1% DEN 30.3%
Mid Att. %	11 23.0% 27 32.7%	NOP 24.2% DEN 22.2% −2.0%
3P Att. %	30 33.0% 27 37.9%	NOP 38.4% DEN 47.5% +9.1%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -3.08 and 3.08.

Game Totals	NOP	DEN
Possessions	116	118
Possession Minutes	28.5	24.5
Points	135	141
Rebounds	50	51
Assists	33	26
Steals	9	9
Blocks	5	6
Turnovers (Team)	18 (0)	11 (1)
Fouls	29	28
Off. Rebounds (Team)	14 (0)	14 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	36 (3)	37 (1)
Field Goals	50-99	48-99
At-the-Rim FG	29-37	23-30
Midrange FG	10-24	10-22
2-Point FG	39-61	33-52
3-Point FG	11-38	15-47
Free Throws	24-30	30-39
Fast Break Pts	23	12
2nd Chance Pts	16	24
Points in Paint	70	56
Pts off Turnovers	17	15
Bench Points	51	40
Biggest Lead	23	6

	WAS	101
	IND	114 ◀

	CLE	115 ◀
	NYK	107

	BOS	98 ◀
	TOR	93

	SAS	124 ◀
	CHI	119

	LAL	123 ◀
	MIL	112

	ORL	123 ◀
	UTA	108

	GSW	108
	HOU	115 ◀

	OKC	108
	POR	118 ◀

	DET	144 ◀
	WAS	140

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg