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Predicted Boxscore

Boxscore predictions combine predicted minutes / possessions with estimated skills. For more information and some caveats, see below.
Friday
May 1, 2009
12:00 PM ET
FinalWin Prob.pScoreScore
15Hawks40%9172
16Heat60%9498
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GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Josh Smith
· 6'9" 225 · 23.4
39.9
37.8
7
24%
10
0
1
1
3
1
5
5
1-3
33%
3-11
6-11
27%
49%
0-2
0%
Mike Bibby
G · 6'2" 195 · 31.0
33.9
32.9
20
68%
7
3
1
1
0
4
0
7
5-6
83%
3-6
3-6
50%
45%
3-6
50%
Joe Johnson
G-F · 6'7" 240 · 27.8
32.1
39.5
13
45%
5
2
0
1
0
3
1
4
0-1
0%
5-12
5-12
42%
46%
1-2
50%
Maurice Evans
G-F · 6'5" 220 · 30.5
31.7
27.0
5
28%
3
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
0-0
-
1-4
2-3
25%
49%
1-5
20%
Solomon Jones
F · 6'10" 235 · 24.8
22.0
8.2
6
75%
5
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
0-0
-
3-4
1-1
75%
53%
0-0
-
Flip Murray
G · 6'3" 200 · 29.8
33.8
31.8
13
44%
2
2
2
1
1
2
0
2
3-4
75%
2-8
4-9
25%
46%
2-5
40%
Zaza Pachulia
C · 6'11" 270 · 25.2
29.6
25.5
6
52%
2
0
1
1
0
1
0
2
2-4
50%
2-4
3-6
50%
47%
0-0
-
Mario West
G · 6'5" 210 · 24.9
6.2
7.6
2
33%
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0-0
-
1-2
0-1
50%
44%
0-1
0%
Marvin Williams
F · 6'9" 237 · 22.9
4.8
18.5
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0-0
-
0-1
2-4
0%
47%
0-0
-
Acie Law
G · 6'3" 202 · 24.3
3.1
3.7
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
0-1
-
42%
0-0
-
Randolph Morris
C · 6'11" 275 · 23.3
3.1
1.9
0
0%
2
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
0-0
-
0-0
0-0
-
47%
0-0
-
Al Horford
F-C · 6'10" 245 · 22.9
19.7
0
3-5
50%
Othello Hunter
· 6'8" 225 · 22.9
Thomas Gardner
G · 6'5" 225 · 24.2
Speedy Claxton
G · 5'11" 170 · 31.0
GameMINPTSTS%REBASTSTLBLKTOVORBDRBFTFT%2P2P%3P3P%
Mario Chalmers
G · 6'2" 190 · 23.0
42.1
30.7
9
56%
3
8
5
2
0
3
0
3
0-0
-
3-6
2-4
50%
47%
1-2
50%
Dwyane Wade
G · 6'4" 220 · 27.3
39.1
40.8
41
67%
5
2
0
2
2
0
0
5
16-17
94%
8-16
8-16
50%
50%
3-7
43%
James Jones
G-F · 6'8" 218 · 28.6
38.0
34.4
11
76%
3
0
0
1
0
1
0
3
5-5
100%
0-1
1-2
0%
43%
2-4
50%
Joel Anthony
C · 6'9" 245 · 26.7
35.2
4.3
6
100%
8
0
0
0
3
1
5
3
0-0
-
3-3
0-0
100%
48%
0-0
-
Udonis Haslem
F · 6'8" 235 · 28.9
11.5
34.4
2
50%
6
0
0
1
0
1
0
6
0-0
-
1-2
4-7
50%
50%
0-0
-
Michael Beasley
F · 6'9" 235 · 20.3
35.6
20.0
22
44%
15
1
0
0
0
1
4
11
0-0
-
11-21
4-8
52%
48%
0-4
0%
Daequan Cook
G · 6'5" 210 · 22.0
16.6
23.4
5
42%
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0-0
-
1-2
1-3
50%
39%
1-4
25%
Jamaal Magloire
C · 6'11" 265 · 30.9
12.8
5.6
2
100%
7
0
0
0
0
2
3
4
0-0
-
1-1
0-1
100%
46%
0-0
-
Dorell Wright
F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23.4
3.1
5.3
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
1-1
-
47%
0-0
-
Yakhouba Diawara
F-G · 6'7" 225 · 26.7
3.1
4.9
0
0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-2
0%
0-1
0-0
0%
47%
0-0
-
Chris Quinn
G · 6'2" 175 · 25.6
3.1
4.6
0
0%
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0-0
-
0-0
0-1
-
43%
0-0
-
Jermaine O'Neal
C-F · 6'11" 255 · 30.5
32.1
0
5-11
46%
Luther Head
G · 6'3" 185 · 26.4
Jamario Moon
F · 6'8" 205 · 28.9
Mark Blount
C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33.4
Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).
indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.