Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Sunday, May 3, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	17	Heat	38%	89	78
	18	Hawks	62%	93	91

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MIA	94.0	83	76.3
ATL	113.8	80	87.7

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+13

-17

ATL

+11

-7

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.97 48.8%

ATL

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	ATL
Q4 - 0:00.0	ATL		78 0%	91 100%
Q4 - 0:03.0	ATL	MISS Murray 25' 3PT Jump Shot	78 0%	91 100%
Q4 - 0:27.0	MIA	Murray STEAL (1 STL)	78 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	MIA	Cook Free Throw Technical (2 PTS)	78 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	77 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	ATL	MISS West Dunk	77 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:40.0	MIA	West STEAL (1 STL)	77 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 0:52.0	ATL	Jones 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (West 1 AST)	77 0.1%	91 99.9%
Q4 - 1:24	MIA	Beasley 26' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS)	77 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:24	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	74 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:25	MIA	MISS Beasley 25' 3PT Jump Shot	74 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:32	ATL	Morris Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T9)	74 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 1:59	MIA	Cook Free Throw 1 of 1 (1 PTS)	72 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:04	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	71 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:05	ATL	MISS Smith 21' Jump Shot	71 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:29	MIA	Beasley 18' Fadeaway Jumper (14 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)	71 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 2:45	ATL	HAWKS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#8)	69 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:13	MIA	Quinn 19' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Anthony 1 AST)	69 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	ATL	MISS Murray 19' Jump Shot	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:26	ATL	HAWKS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#7)	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:28	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:28	ATL	MISS West 4' Driving Layup	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:51	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw Flagrant 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	67 0.1%	89 99.9%
Q4 - 3:51	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw Flagrant 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	67 0.1%	88 99.9%
Q4 - 4:09	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:8)	67 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:10	MIA	MISS Cook 25' 3PT Jump Shot	67 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:17	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	67 0.1%	87 99.9%
Q4 - 4:17	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	67 0.1%	86 99.9%
Q4 - 4:17	MIA	Wade Free Throw Technical (31 PTS)	67 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 4:34	MIA	Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot (30 PTS)	66 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 4:48	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	63 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 4:50	ATL	MISS Murray 2' Driving Layup	63 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:15	MIA	Smith STEAL (2 STL)	63 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:19	ATL	Johnson Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T6)	63 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 5:46	MIA	Beasley 10' Fadeaway Jumper (12 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)	63 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:02	ATL	Pachulia Foul Turnover (P2.T5)	61 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:12	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)	61 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:12	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (26 PTS)	60 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:21	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:22	ATL	MISS Johnson 30' 3PT Jump Shot	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:43	ATL	Murray REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:45	MIA	MISS Jones 28' 3PT Jump Shot	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:54	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 6:55	ATL	MISS Horford 19' Jump Shot	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:20	MIA	Beasley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Cook 1 AST)	59 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:27	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	56 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:29	MIA	MISS Wade 26' 3PT Jump Shot	56 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 7:41	ATL	Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot (15 PTS) (Evans 1 AST)	56 0.1%	85 99.9%
Q4 - 8:01	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	56 0.1%	82 99.9%
Q4 - 8:02	MIA	MISS Beasley 22' Jump Shot	56 0.1%	82 99.9%
Q4 - 8:21	ATL	Johnson 25' 3PT Jump Shot (27 PTS)	56 0.1%	82 99.9%
Q4 - 8:38	MIA	Cook Step Out of Bounds Turnover (P1.T16)	56 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 8:51	ATL	Johnson 5' Turnaround Jump Shot (24 PTS)	56 0.2%	79 99.8%
Q4 - 9:13	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	56 0.5%	77 99.5%
Q4 - 9:13	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	55 0.4%	77 99.6%
Q4 - 9:42	ATL	Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot (12 PTS)	54 0.3%	77 99.7%
Q4 - 10:06	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	54 0.7%	74 99.3%
Q4 - 10:07	MIA	MISS Beasley Free Throw 2 of 2	54 0.8%	74 99.2%
Q4 - 10:07	MIA	MISS Beasley Free Throw 1 of 2	54 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q4 - 10:15	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	54 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q4 - 10:18	MIA	MISS Wade 19' Jump Shot	54 0.8%	74 99.2%
Q4 - 10:40	ATL	Smith Alley Oop Layup (21 PTS) (Bibby 6 AST)	54 0.9%	74 99.1%
Q4 - 10:55	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (6 PTS)	54 1.2%	72 98.8%
Q4 - 10:55	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (5 PTS)	53 1.1%	72 98.9%
Q4 - 11:07	ATL	Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	52 1.2%	72 98.8%
Q4 - 11:07	ATL	Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	52 1.2%	71 98.8%
Q4 - 11:23	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	52 1.4%	70 98.6%
Q4 - 11:25	MIA	MISS Jones 18' Jump Shot	52 1.5%	70 98.5%
Q4 - 11:47	ATL	Smith Driving Slam Dunk (19 PTS) (Bibby 5 AST)	52 1.8%	70 98.2%
Q3 - 0:00.0	MIA		52 2.2%	68 97.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	52 2.2%	68 97.8%
Q3 - 0:00.0	ATL	MISS Murray 65' 3PT Jump Shot	52 2.5%	68 97.5%
Q3 - 0:01.0	MIA	MISS Wade 27' 3PT Jump Shot	52 2.8%	68 97.2%
Q3 - 0:25.0	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	52 2.6%	68 97.4%
Q3 - 0:27.0	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	52 2.7%	68 97.3%
Q3 - 1:22	MIA	Wade Foul Turnover (P4.T15)	52 5.0%	65 95.0%
Q3 - 1:42	ATL	Johnson 12' Running Jump Shot (19 PTS)	52 5.9%	65 94.1%
Q3 - 1:57	MIA	Heat Turnover: 8 Second Violation (T#14)	52 7.2%	63 92.8%
Q3 - 2:04	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	52 9.3%	63 90.7%
Q3 - 2:06	ATL	MISS Murray 17' Jump Shot	52 8.8%	63 91.2%
Q3 - 2:26	MIA	Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot (25 PTS)	52 7.8%	63 92.2%
Q3 - 2:38	MIA	Heat Rebound	49 5.5%	63 94.5%
Q3 - 2:41	ATL	MISS Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot	49 5.2%	63 94.8%
Q3 - 2:53	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	49 4.6%	63 95.4%
Q3 - 2:54	MIA	MISS Haslem 17' Jump Shot	49 4.8%	63 95.2%
Q3 - 3:01	MIA	Heat Rebound	49 6.0%	63 94.0%
Q3 - 3:01	MIA	MISS Haslem 15' Jump Shot	49 5.3%	63 94.7%
Q3 - 3:28	ATL	Smith Alley Oop Layup (17 PTS) (Johnson 4 AST)	49 6.0%	63 94.0%
Q3 - 3:50	MIA	Wade 20' Jump Shot (22 PTS)	49 7.0%	61 93.0%
Q3 - 4:05	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	47 6.4%	61 93.6%
Q3 - 4:06	ATL	MISS Smith Free Throw 2 of 2	47 6.3%	61 93.7%
Q3 - 4:06	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	47 5.7%	61 94.3%
Q3 - 4:24	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	47 6.2%	60 93.8%
Q3 - 4:26	ATL	MISS Bibby 21' Jump Shot	47 7.1%	60 92.9%
Q3 - 4:53	MIA	Wade 5' Driving Jump Shot (20 PTS)	47 6.2%	60 93.8%
Q3 - 5:09	ATL	Horford 4' Running Layup (7 PTS) (Smith 3 AST)	45 5.9%	60 94.1%
Q3 - 5:25	MIA	Beasley Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P3.T13)	45 6.7%	58 93.3%
Q3 - 5:52	ATL	Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (17 PTS) (Murray 2 AST)	45 8.0%	58 92.0%
Q3 - 6:01	MIA	Smith STEAL (1 STL)	45 11.2%	55 88.8%
Q3 - 6:14	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:9)	45 13.0%	55 87.0%
Q3 - 6:16	ATL	MISS Johnson 4' Turnaround Jump Shot	45 12.4%	55 87.6%
Q3 - 6:31	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	45 11.2%	55 88.8%
Q3 - 6:32	MIA	MISS Wade 25' 3PT Jump Shot	45 11.7%	55 88.3%
Q3 - 6:47	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	45 13.0%	55 87.0%
Q3 - 6:54	ATL	MISS Horford 3' Jump Shot	45 12.4%	55 87.6%
Q3 - 7:17	MIA	Haslem 14' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)	45 11.7%	55 88.3%
Q3 - 7:33	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:8)	43 10.3%	55 89.7%
Q3 - 7:35	ATL	MISS Bibby 1' Driving Layup	43 9.8%	55 90.2%
Q3 - 7:58	MIA	Wade 2' Driving Layup (18 PTS)	43 8.8%	55 91.2%
Q3 - 8:08	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	41 8.0%	55 92.0%
Q3 - 8:11	ATL	MISS Johnson 12' Fadeaway Jumper	41 7.7%	55 92.3%
Q3 - 8:20	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	41 6.9%	55 93.1%
Q3 - 8:21	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	41 7.2%	55 92.8%
Q3 - 8:45	ATL	Horford 12' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Bibby 3 AST)	41 8.0%	55 92.0%
Q3 - 9:12	MIA	Wade 1' Driving Layup (16 PTS)	41 9.5%	53 90.5%
Q3 - 9:34	ATL	Johnson 20' Fadeaway Jumper (14 PTS)	39 8.3%	53 91.7%
Q3 - 9:56	MIA	Beasley Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	39 9.4%	51 90.6%
Q3 - 9:56	MIA	MISS Beasley Free Throw 1 of 2	38 9.2%	51 90.8%
Q3 - 10:09	MIA	Heat Rebound	38 9.9%	51 90.1%
Q3 - 10:09	ATL	MISS Bibby 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 9.5%	51 90.5%
Q3 - 10:39	MIA	Beasley 17' Turnaround Jump Shot (6 PTS)	38 8.7%	51 91.3%
Q3 - 11:04	ATL	Smith Running Layup (14 PTS) (Johnson 3 AST)	36 8.1%	51 91.9%
Q3 - 11:12	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	36 9.1%	49 90.9%
Q3 - 11:12	ATL	MISS Bibby 26' 3PT Jump Shot	36 10.0%	49 90.0%
Q3 - 11:16	ATL	Evans REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	36 9.1%	49 90.9%
Q3 - 11:19	ATL	MISS Horford 6' Jump Shot	36 10.0%	49 90.0%
Q3 - 11:36	MIA	Johnson STEAL (5 STL)	36 9.1%	49 90.9%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA		36 10.3%	49 89.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	36 10.3%	49 89.7%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Wade 54' 3PT Jump Shot	36 9.4%	49 90.6%
Q2 - 0:02.0	ATL	Johnson 3' Driving Layup (12 PTS)	36 10.7%	49 89.3%
Q2 - 0:09.0	MIA	Jones Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	36 12.4%	47 87.6%
Q2 - 0:09.0	MIA	Jones Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	35 12.2%	47 87.8%
Q2 - 0:09.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	34 10.6%	47 89.4%
Q2 - 0:10.0	ATL	MISS Smith 24' 3PT Jump Shot	34 10.4%	47 89.6%
Q2 - 0:31.0	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	34 9.7%	47 90.3%
Q2 - 0:34.0	MIA	MISS Wade 14' Turnaround Jump Shot	34 10.0%	47 90.0%
Q2 - 0:56.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	34 10.6%	47 89.4%
Q2 - 0:56.0	ATL	MISS Smith Alley Oop Dunk	34 10.3%	47 89.7%
Q2 - 1:02	MIA	Johnson STEAL (4 STL)	34 10.1%	47 89.9%
Q2 - 1:08	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:7)	34 11.0%	47 89.0%
Q2 - 1:09	ATL	MISS Smith 5' Running Hook Shot	34 10.7%	47 89.3%
Q2 - 1:32	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:4 Def:6)	34 10.1%	47 89.9%
Q2 - 1:32	MIA	Haslem Putback Layup (10 PTS)	34 10.1%	47 89.9%
Q2 - 1:34	MIA	MISS Wade 5' Running Jump Shot	32 8.1%	47 91.9%
Q2 - 1:58	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	32 8.6%	47 91.4%
Q2 - 1:58	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	32 9.0%	46 91.0%
Q2 - 2:19	MIA	Beasley 18' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	32 10.2%	45 89.8%
Q2 - 2:34	ATL	Bibby Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T4)	30 9.1%	45 90.9%
Q2 - 2:36	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	30 8.1%	45 91.9%
Q2 - 2:39	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	30 9.1%	45 90.9%
Q2 - 2:39	MIA	MISS Chalmers Tip Shot	30 8.4%	45 91.6%
Q2 - 2:41	MIA	MISS Chalmers 6' Running Jump Shot	30 8.4%	45 91.6%
Q2 - 2:59	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 9.1%	45 90.9%
Q2 - 3:00	ATL	MISS Johnson Free Throw 2 of 2	30 9.0%	45 91.0%
Q2 - 3:00	ATL	Johnson Free Throw 1 of 2 (10 PTS)	30 8.3%	45 91.7%
Q2 - 3:20	MIA	Beasley 23' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)	30 9.3%	44 90.7%
Q2 - 3:36	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 8.4%	44 91.6%
Q2 - 3:37	ATL	MISS Johnson 22' Jump Shot	28 8.1%	44 91.9%
Q2 - 3:43	MIA	Johnson STEAL (3 STL)	28 7.4%	44 92.6%
Q2 - 4:02	ATL	Johnson 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Bibby 2 AST)	28 8.7%	44 91.3%
Q2 - 4:07	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	28 10.7%	41 89.3%
Q2 - 4:08	MIA	MISS Wade 2' Driving Layup	28 11.1%	41 88.9%
Q2 - 4:25	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	28 12.0%	41 88.0%
Q2 - 4:27	ATL	MISS Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot	28 11.6%	41 88.4%
Q2 - 4:48	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	28 10.7%	41 89.3%
Q2 - 4:48	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	27 10.5%	41 89.5%
Q2 - 4:57	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	26 9.7%	41 90.3%
Q2 - 4:57	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	26 10.0%	40 90.0%
Q2 - 4:59	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	26 10.7%	39 89.3%
Q2 - 5:01	MIA	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	26 11.6%	39 88.4%
Q2 - 5:31	ATL	Murray Running Layup (7 PTS) (Johnson 2 AST)	26 12.4%	39 87.6%
Q2 - 5:35	MIA	Johnson STEAL (2 STL)	26 13.8%	37 86.2%
Q2 - 5:53	ATL	Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Smith 2 AST)	26 15.2%	37 84.8%
Q2 - 6:08	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	26 18.8%	34 81.2%
Q2 - 6:09	MIA	MISS Jones 24' 3PT Jump Shot	26 19.4%	34 80.6%
Q2 - 6:20	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	26 20.9%	34 79.1%
Q2 - 6:21	ATL	MISS Smith 18' Jump Shot	26 20.3%	34 79.7%
Q2 - 6:36	MIA	Haslem Foul Turnover (P2.T7)	26 18.8%	34 81.2%
Q2 - 6:36	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:3 Def:6)	26 20.9%	34 79.1%
Q2 - 6:37	MIA	MISS Wade 3' Driving Layup	26 19.4%	34 80.6%
Q2 - 6:52	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	26 20.9%	34 79.1%
Q2 - 6:54	ATL	MISS Murray 19' Jump Shot	26 20.2%	34 79.8%
Q2 - 7:14	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	26 19.1%	34 80.9%
Q2 - 7:14	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	25 18.7%	34 81.3%
Q2 - 7:26	ATL	Horford Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	24 17.4%	34 82.6%
Q2 - 7:26	ATL	MISS Horford Free Throw 1 of 2	24 17.8%	33 82.2%
Q2 - 7:43	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	24 17.4%	33 82.6%
Q2 - 7:43	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	23 17.0%	33 83.0%
Q2 - 8:00	ATL	Johnson 29' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS)	22 15.9%	33 84.1%
Q2 - 8:20	MIA	Haslem Foul Turnover (P1.T6)	22 19.5%	30 80.5%
Q2 - 8:39	ATL	Johnson 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS)	22 21.2%	30 78.8%
Q2 - 8:44	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	22 25.2%	27 74.8%
Q2 - 8:45	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	22 25.8%	27 74.2%
Q2 - 9:08	ATL	Murray 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Horford 1 AST)	22 27.2%	27 72.8%
Q2 - 9:12	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	22 31.7%	24 68.3%
Q2 - 9:16	ATL	MISS Johnson 26' 3PT Jump Shot	22 33.3%	24 66.7%
Q2 - 9:33	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	22 31.7%	24 68.3%
Q2 - 9:33	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	21 31.2%	24 68.8%
Q2 - 9:37	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 29.4%	24 70.6%
Q2 - 9:39	ATL	MISS Horford 2' Layup	20 28.7%	24 71.3%
Q2 - 9:55	ATL	Pachulia REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 27.2%	24 72.8%
Q2 - 9:56	MIA	MISS Beasley 16' Jump Shot	20 27.9%	24 72.1%
Q2 - 10:15	ATL	Pachulia 3' Layup (4 PTS) (Murray 1 AST)	20 29.6%	24 70.4%
Q2 - 10:25	ATL	Murray REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	20 31.8%	22 68.2%
Q2 - 10:28	ATL	MISS Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot	20 33.4%	22 66.6%
Q2 - 10:43	MIA	Johnson STEAL (1 STL)	20 31.8%	22 68.2%
Q2 - 11:02	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	20 34.2%	22 65.8%
Q2 - 11:04	ATL	MISS Murray 24' 3PT Jump Shot	20 33.5%	22 66.5%
Q2 - 11:21	MIA	Chalmers 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	20 31.9%	22 68.1%
Q2 - 11:34	ATL	Murray Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	18 29.8%	22 70.2%
Q2 - 11:34	ATL	Murray Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	18 30.3%	21 69.7%
Q2 - 11:37	MIA	Bibby STEAL (2 STL)	18 31.9%	20 68.1%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA		18 34.2%	20 65.8%
Q1 - 0:02.0	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	18 33.7%	20 66.3%
Q1 - 0:02.0	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	18 34.1%	19 65.9%
Q1 - 0:02.0	MIA	Bibby STEAL (1 STL)	18 36.5%	18 63.5%
Q1 - 0:14.0	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	18 38.2%	18 61.8%
Q1 - 0:16.0	MIA	MISS Wade 7' Jump Shot	18 37.0%	18 63.0%
Q1 - 0:31.0	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	18 38.3%	18 61.7%
Q1 - 0:31.0	ATL	Pachulia Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	18 38.8%	17 61.2%
Q1 - 0:37.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	18 41.2%	16 58.8%
Q1 - 0:38.0	MIA	MISS O'Neal 17' Jump Shot	18 41.7%	16 58.3%
Q1 - 0:52.0	ATL	Smith Free Throw 2 of 2 (8 PTS)	18 43.1%	16 56.9%
Q1 - 0:52.0	ATL	Smith Free Throw 1 of 2 (7 PTS)	18 43.8%	15 56.2%
Q1 - 0:53.0	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	18 46.0%	14 54.0%
Q1 - 0:55.0	MIA	Smith BLOCK (1 BLK)	18 46.6%	14 53.4%
Q1 - 1:14	ATL	Pachulia Out of Bounds Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T3)	18 47.3%	14 52.7%
Q1 - 1:28	MIA	Wade 3 Second Violation Turnover (P1.T2)	18 45.7%	14 54.3%
Q1 - 1:36	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	18 47.3%	14 52.7%
Q1 - 1:38	ATL	MISS Pachulia 3' Layup	18 46.9%	14 53.1%
Q1 - 1:50	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	18 45.7%	14 54.3%
Q1 - 1:53	MIA	MISS Wade 17' Fadeaway Jumper	18 46.2%	14 53.8%
Q1 - 2:09	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	18 47.2%	14 52.8%
Q1 - 2:11	ATL	MISS Bibby 19' Jump Shot	18 46.6%	14 53.4%
Q1 - 2:29	MIA	Jones 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)	18 45.3%	14 54.7%
Q1 - 2:52	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 42.6%	14 57.4%
Q1 - 2:54	ATL	MISS Johnson 13' Running Jump Shot	16 42.1%	14 57.9%
Q1 - 2:58	ATL	HAWKS Rebound	16 40.8%	14 59.2%
Q1 - 2:58	ATL	MISS Johnson 3' Driving Layup	16 42.1%	14 57.9%
Q1 - 3:17	MIA	Wade 10' Turnaround Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)	16 40.5%	14 59.5%
Q1 - 3:38	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	14 38.3%	14 61.7%
Q1 - 3:40	MIA	MISS Wade 24' 3PT Jump Shot	14 36.8%	14 63.2%
Q1 - 3:46	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	14 38.3%	14 61.7%
Q1 - 3:48	ATL	MISS Evans 3PT Jump Shot	14 37.7%	14 62.3%
Q1 - 3:59	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	14 36.2%	14 63.8%
Q1 - 4:01	MIA	MISS Haslem 20' Jump Shot	14 36.5%	14 63.5%
Q1 - 4:10	ATL	Smith Lost Ball Turnover (P2.T2)	14 38.0%	14 62.0%
Q1 - 4:32	MIA	Haslem 18' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Chalmers 2 AST)	14 35.9%	14 64.1%
Q1 - 4:41	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	12 33.9%	14 66.1%
Q1 - 4:43	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	12 32.5%	14 67.5%
Q1 - 5:04	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	12 34.1%	14 65.9%
Q1 - 5:05	MIA	MISS Beasley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	12 32.5%	14 67.5%
Q1 - 5:20	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	12 34.0%	14 66.0%
Q1 - 5:22	ATL	MISS Horford 13' Turnaround Jump Shot	12 33.4%	14 66.6%
Q1 - 5:38	ATL	Johnson REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 31.9%	14 68.1%
Q1 - 5:39	MIA	MISS Chalmers 20' Jump Shot	12 32.5%	14 67.5%
Q1 - 5:46	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	12 34.0%	14 66.0%
Q1 - 5:50	ATL	MISS Horford Dunk	12 33.4%	14 66.6%
Q1 - 6:09	MIA	Wade 14' Running Jump Shot (8 PTS)	12 31.8%	14 68.2%
Q1 - 6:27	ATL	Horford 2' Layup (2 PTS) (Smith 1 AST)	10 30.1%	14 69.9%
Q1 - 6:35	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	10 31.8%	12 68.2%
Q1 - 6:36	MIA	MISS Haslem 3' Layup	10 32.4%	12 67.6%
Q1 - 6:56	ATL	Smith 4' Layup (6 PTS)	10 33.8%	12 66.2%
Q1 - 7:19	MIA	Wade 4' Reverse Layup (6 PTS)	10 35.4%	10 64.6%
Q1 - 8:06	ATL	Bibby Free Throw 1 of 1 (6 PTS)	8 33.4%	10 66.6%
Q1 - 8:14	ATL	Bibby REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 37.3%	7 62.7%
Q1 - 8:15	MIA	MISS Wade 20' Jump Shot	8 37.9%	7 62.1%
Q1 - 8:29	ATL	Smith 3' Turnaround Jump Shot (4 PTS)	8 39.2%	7 60.8%
Q1 - 8:29	MIA	Heat Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)	8 41.3%	5 58.7%
Q1 - 8:57	ATL	Bibby 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Johnson 1 AST)	8 43.4%	5 56.6%
Q1 - 9:23	MIA	Wade 3' Running Layup (4 PTS)	8 47.1%	2 52.9%
Q1 - 9:28	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	6 45.0%	2 55.0%
Q1 - 9:28	ATL	MISS Johnson 4' Running Layup	6 44.4%	2 55.6%
Q1 - 9:32	ATL	Smith REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 43.2%	2 56.8%
Q1 - 9:33	MIA	MISS Haslem 18' Jump Shot	6 43.7%	2 56.3%
Q1 - 9:39	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 45.0%	2 55.0%
Q1 - 9:41	ATL	MISS Bibby 2' Layup	6 44.4%	2 55.6%
Q1 - 10:07	MIA	Haslem 17' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)	6 42.3%	2 57.7%
Q1 - 10:25	ATL	Smith Dunk (2 PTS) (Bibby 1 AST)	4 40.7%	2 59.3%
Q1 - 10:31	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	4 42.4%	0 57.6%
Q1 - 10:31	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	3 42.0%	0 58.0%
Q1 - 10:44	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 40.7%	0 59.3%
Q1 - 10:45	ATL	MISS Bibby 13' Jump Shot	2 40.1%	0 59.9%
Q1 - 10:57	ATL	Horford REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 38.8%	0 61.2%
Q1 - 10:58	MIA	MISS Anthony 11' Jump Shot	2 39.4%	0 60.6%
Q1 - 11:15	ATL	Smith Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T1)	2 39.8%	0 60.2%
Q1 - 11:29	MIA	Haslem 4' Layup (2 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)	2 38.2%	0 61.8%
Q1 - 11:47	MIA	Anthony REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 36.7%	0 63.3%
Q1 - 11:48	ATL	MISS Johnson 19' Jump Shot	0 36.2%	0 63.8%
Q1 - 12:00	ATL	Jump Ball Smith vs. Anthony: Tip to Johnson	0 35.1%	0 64.9%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.97 48.8%

ATL

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

57%

ATL

50%

Midrange

MIA

47%

ATL

20%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

6.0

21%

32%

ATL

16.5

48%

72%

Free Throws

MIA

88%

ATL

88%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Wade	31	53%	15.5 / 29
M. Beasley	17	61%	8.5 / 14
U. Haslem	14	58%	7.0 / 12
J. Jones	6	43%	3.0 / 7
M. Chalmers	4	29%	2.0 / 7
J. Anthony	2	50%	1.0 / 2
D. Cook	2	50%	1.0 / 2
C. Quinn	2	100%	1.0 / 1
J. O'Neal	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Hawks

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Johnson	27	71%	13.5 / 19
J. Smith	21	66%	10.5 / 16
R. Murray	15	47%	7.5 / 16
M. Bibby	11	50%	5.5 / 11
Z. Pachulia	8	100%	4.0 / 4
A. Horford	7	35%	3.5 / 10
S. Jones	2	50%	1.0 / 2
M. Evans	0	-	0.0 / 1
M. West	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+13

-17

ATL

+11

-7

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

0.97 48.8%

ATL

1.08 54.2%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	104.8 101.3	MIA 94.0 +19.8 ATL 113.8
Pace	84.1 82.9	MIA 76.3 ATL 87.7 +11.5
Avg. Poss. Time	17.9 16.3	MIA 18.9 ATL 16.4 +2.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.1% 45.0%	MIA 44.4% ATL 48.6% +4.2%
TO %	14.8% 13.5%	MIA 20.4% ATL 9.9% +10.5%
ORB %	24.9% 26.1%	MIA 30.6% +15.4% ATL 15.2%
FTrt	32.4 32.3	MIA 39.7 +4.5 ATL 35.2
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	47.9% 56.2%	MIA 46.2% ATL 62.1% +15.9%
STL %	7.4% 8.3%	MIA 6.0% ATL 13.8% +7.8%
BLK %	10.3% 6.6%	MIA 16.7% +14.4% ATL 2.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Playoff Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.9% 48.6%	MIA 48.8% ATL 54.2% +5.4%
Rim FG%	60.7% 53.1%	MIA 57.1% +7.1% ATL 50.0%
Mid FG%	42.2% 33.5%	MIA 46.7% +26.7% ATL 20.0%
3P %	35.7% 34.7%	MIA 21.1% ATL 47.8% +26.7%
FT %	81.6% 74.4%	MIA 88.0% ATL 88.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	25.1% 36.0%	MIA 22.2% ATL 39.4% +17.2%
Mid Att. %	46.2% 40.1%	MIA 47.6% ATL 28.2% +19.5%
3P Att. %	28.7% 23.8%	MIA 30.2% ATL 32.4% +2.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	ATL
Possessions	83	80
Possession Minutes	26.1	21.9
Points	78	91
Rebounds	39	30
Assists	12	18
Steals	5	11
Blocks	8	1
Turnovers (Team)	17 (2)	7 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	11 (2)	5 (6)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	28 (5)	25 (0)
Field Goals	26-63	29-71
At-the-Rim FG	8-14	14-28
Midrange FG	14-30	4-20
2-Point FG	22-44	18-48
3-Point FG	4-19	11-23
Free Throws	22-25	22-25
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	42.1	31	53%	3	4	1	2	4	2	0	3	9-9	100%	8-16	50%	2-9	22%
James Jones F · 6'8" 218 · 29	39.9	6	43%	5	0	0	1	0	3	0	5	4-4	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	38.6	14	58%	13	0	1	1	3	4	4	9	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	34.2	4	29%	2	4	2	0	3	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27	22.6	2	50%	6	1	0	2	0	3	3	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	33.9	17	61%	7	0	0	2	3	3	2	5	1-4	25%	5-8	63%	2-4	50%
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	17.3	2	50%	2	1	0	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 26	3.9	2	100%	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 27	3.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jermaine O'Neal C-F · 6'11" 255 · 31	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dorell Wright F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23
Luther Head #2 · G · 6'3" 185 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jamario Moon #8 · F · 6'8" 205 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mark Blount #15 · C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	78	49%	39	12	5	8	17	0	11	28	22-25	88%	22-44	50%	4-19	21%

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17 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	42.1	31	53%	3	4	1	2	4	2	0	3	9-9	100%	8-16	50%	2-9	22%
James Jones F · 6'8" 218 · 29	39.9	6	43%	5	0	0	1	0	3	0	5	4-4	100%	1-2	50%	0-3	0%
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	38.6	14	58%	13	0	1	1	3	4	4	9	4-4	100%	5-10	50%	0-0	-
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	34.2	4	29%	2	4	2	0	3	1	1	1	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	0-2	0%
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27	22.6	2	50%	6	1	0	2	0	3	3	3	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	33.9	17	61%	7	0	0	2	3	3	2	5	1-4	25%	5-8	63%	2-4	50%
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	17.3	2	50%	2	1	0	0	1	3	1	1	2-2	100%	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 26	3.9	2	100%	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-0	-
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	3.5	0	0%	1	0	0	0	1	1	0	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 27	3.5	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Jermaine O'Neal C-F · 6'11" 255 · 31	0.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Dorell Wright F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23
Luther Head #2 · G · 6'3" 185 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Jamario Moon #8 · F · 6'8" 205 · 29	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mark Blount #15 · C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	78	49%	39	12	5	8	17	0	11	28	22-25	88%	22-44	50%	4-19	21%

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18 Atlanta Hawks

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Joe Johnson G · 6'7" 240 · 28	44.0	27	71%	5	4	5	0	1	1	0	5	1-2	50%	4-11	36%	6-8	75%
Mike Bibby G · 6'2" 195 · 31	41.5	11	50%	4	6	2	0	1	2	0	4	3-3	100%	1-6	17%	2-4	50%
Josh Smith F · 6'9" 225 · 23	38.1	21	66%	9	3	2	1	2	6	1	8	7-8	88%	7-11	64%	0-1	0%
Al Horford C · 6'10" 245 · 23	32.4	7	35%	3	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	1-2	50%	3-9	33%	0-0	-
Maurice Evans F · 6'5" 220 · 30	21.6	0	0%	1	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Flip Murray G · 6'3" 200 · 30	30.2	15	47%	3	2	1	0	0	2	1	2	4-4	100%	1-5	20%	3-9	33%
Zaza Pachulia C · 6'11" 270 · 25	20.1	8	100%	4	0	0	0	2	4	1	3	6-6	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Mario West G · 6'5" 210 · 25	4.0	0	0%	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Solomon Jones F · 6'10" 235 · 25	3.5	2	50%	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0-0	-	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Acie Law G · 6'3" 202 · 24	2.8	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Randolph Morris C · 6'11" 275 · 23	2.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Marvin Williams F · 6'9" 237 · 23
Othello Hunter #50 · · 6'8" 225 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Thomas Gardner #3 · G · 6'5" 225 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Speedy Claxton #12 · G · 5'11" 170 · 31	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	91	54%	30	18	11	1	7	0	5	25	22-25	88%	18-48	38%	11-23	48%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Playoff Avg

Playoff Avg

BOXSCORE