Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, March 27, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	30	Clippers	15%	86	98
	6	Spurs	85%	100	111

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
LAC	118.1	83	84.9
SAS	132.1	84	82.2

Scoring Opportunities

LAC

+12

-11

SAS

+11

-3

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

LAC

1.17 58.3%

SAS

1.19 59.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	LAC	SAS
Q4 - 0:00.0	SAS		98 0%	111 100%
Q4 - 0:07.0	LAC	Thornton 2' Dunk (16 PTS) (Acker 2 AST)	98 0%	111 100%
Q4 - 0:11.0	SAS	Hill Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T5)	96 0%	111 100%
Q4 - 0:33.0	LAC	Hill STEAL (2 STL)	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 0:35.0	LAC	Jordan REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 0:37.0	LAC	MISS Acker 19' Jump Shot	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 0:46.0	LAC	Thornton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 0:48.0	SAS	MISS Hill 19' Jump Shot	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:11	LAC	Thornton 3' Layup (14 PTS)	96 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:13	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:5)	94 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:14	SAS	MISS Bowen 3' Jump Shot	94 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:40	SAS	Bowen REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	94 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:41	LAC	MISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot	94 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 1:56	SAS	Gooden 6' Jump Hook Shot (14 PTS)	94 0.1%	111 99.9%
Q4 - 2:13	LAC	Acker 10' Jump Shot (4 PTS)	94 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:25	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:4)	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:26	SAS	MISS Vaughn 16' Jump Shot	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:35	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:36	LAC	MISS Jordan 14' Jump Shot	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:50	LAC	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 2:53	SAS	MISS Hill 13' Jump Shot	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 3:17	LAC	Jordan Free Throw 1 of 1 (7 PTS)	92 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 3:38	SAS	Bowen Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	89 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 3:54	LAC	Jordan 4' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS)	89 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:07	LAC	Novak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	87 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:09	SAS	MISS Udoka 18' Jump Shot	87 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:28	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	87 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:29	LAC	MISS Thornton Free Throw 1 of 1	87 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:49	SAS	Gooden Free Throw 2 of 2 (12 PTS)	85 0.1%	109 99.9%
Q4 - 4:49	SAS	Gooden Free Throw 1 of 2 (11 PTS)	85 0.1%	108 99.9%
Q4 - 5:06	LAC	Thornton 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	85 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 5:28	SAS	Vaughn 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	83 0.1%	107 99.9%
Q4 - 5:44	LAC	Jordan 1' Alley Oop Dunk (2 PTS) (Gordon 4 AST)	83 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 6:06	SAS	Udoka 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Vaughn 4 AST)	81 0.1%	105 99.9%
Q4 - 6:20	SAS	Hill REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 6:21	SAS	MISS Hill 1' Alley Oop Dunk	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 6:27	LAC	Bowen STEAL (1 STL)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 6:43	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#3)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 6:43	SAS	SPURS Rebound	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 6:43	SAS	MISS Gooden 14' Jump Shot	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:11	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:12	SAS	MISS Udoka 25' 3PT Jump Shot	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:26	LAC	Gordon Traveling Turnover (P2.T9)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:26	LAC	Clippers Rebound	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:26	LAC	MISS Gordon 7' Jump Shot	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:32	LAC	Jordan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 7:33	SAS	MISS Hill 25' 3PT Jump Shot	81 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:02	LAC	Novak 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Gordon 3 AST)	81 0.2%	102 99.8%
Q4 - 8:10	LAC	Novak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:12	SAS	MISS Udoka 15' Jump Shot	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:24	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:25	LAC	MISS Jordan 5' Jump Shot	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:30	LAC	Jordan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:31	LAC	MISS Gordon 24' 3PT Jump Shot	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:41	LAC	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 8:42	SAS	MISS Udoka 15' Jump Shot	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 9:01	LAC	Thornton 19' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	78 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 9:31	SAS	Hill 3' Layup (8 PTS) (Udoka 2 AST)	76 0.1%	102 99.9%
Q4 - 9:39	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	76 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 9:40	LAC	MISS Jordan 3' Alley Oop Layup	76 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 9:41	LAC	Clippers Rebound	76 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 9:42	LAC	Ginobili BLOCK (1 BLK)	76 0.1%	100 99.9%
Q4 - 10:07	SAS	Gooden 1' Dunk (10 PTS) (Vaughn 3 AST)	76 0.2%	100 99.8%
Q4 - 10:28	LAC	Thornton 19' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	76 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 10:52	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:3)	74 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 10:53	SAS	MISS Ginobili 3PT Jump Shot	74 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 11:03	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	74 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 11:04	LAC	MISS Acker 21' Jump Shot	74 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 11:24	SAS	Gooden 5' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Ginobili 7 AST)	74 0.2%	98 99.8%
Q4 - 11:48	LAC	Taylor 8' Floating Jump Shot (23 PTS)	74 0.3%	96 99.7%
Q3 - 0:00.0	SAS		72 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q3 - 0:04.0	SAS	Ginobili REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	72 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q3 - 0:05.0	LAC	MISS Taylor Free Throw 2 of 2	72 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q3 - 0:05.0	LAC	Taylor Free Throw 1 of 2 (21 PTS)	72 0.3%	96 99.7%
Q3 - 0:26.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 2 of 2 (14 PTS)	71 0.2%	96 99.8%
Q3 - 0:26.0	SAS	Ginobili Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	71 0.2%	95 99.8%
Q3 - 0:26.0	LAC	Ginobili STEAL (3 STL)	71 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q3 - 0:28.0	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	71 0.4%	94 99.6%
Q3 - 0:28.0	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	71 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q3 - 0:37.0	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:1 Def:7)	71 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q3 - 0:38.0	LAC	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	71 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q3 - 1:00	SAS	Hill 1' Dunk (6 PTS) (Ginobili 6 AST)	71 0.3%	94 99.7%
Q3 - 1:08	LAC	Hill STEAL (1 STL)	71 0.5%	92 99.5%
Q3 - 1:16	LAC	Taylor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	71 0.6%	92 99.4%
Q3 - 1:18	SAS	MISS Gooden 14' Jump Shot	71 0.6%	92 99.4%
Q3 - 1:35	LAC	Thornton 21' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Jones 3 AST)	71 0.5%	92 99.5%
Q3 - 1:59	SAS	Gooden 1' Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Ginobili 5 AST)	69 0.4%	92 99.6%
Q3 - 2:26	LAC	Randolph Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	69 0.6%	90 99.4%
Q3 - 2:26	LAC	Randolph Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	68 0.6%	90 99.4%
Q3 - 2:26	LAC	Clippers Rebound	67 0.5%	90 99.5%
Q3 - 2:26	LAC	MISS Thornton 16' Jump Shot	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 2:32	LAC	Kaman REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	67 0.5%	90 99.5%
Q3 - 2:34	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 24' 3PT Jump Shot	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 2:38	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 2:39	SAS	MISS Hill 12' Jump Shot	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 3:01	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 3:01	LAC	Randolph 1' Tip Shot (14 PTS)	67 0.4%	90 99.6%
Q3 - 3:02	LAC	MISS Taylor Free Throw 1 of 1	65 0.3%	90 99.7%
Q3 - 3:16	SAS	Gooden 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Ginobili 4 AST)	63 0.3%	90 99.7%
Q3 - 3:33	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	63 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q3 - 3:34	LAC	MISS Kaman 1' Layup	63 0.3%	88 99.7%
Q3 - 3:59	SAS	Parker 24' 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Ginobili 3 AST)	63 0.4%	88 99.6%
Q3 - 4:13	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	63 0.6%	85 99.4%
Q3 - 4:14	LAC	MISS Thornton 15' Jump Bank Shot	63 0.6%	85 99.4%
Q3 - 4:27	SAS	Mason Jr. Free Throw 1 of 1 (8 PTS)	63 0.7%	85 99.3%
Q3 - 4:52	LAC	Taylor 3PT Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Gordon 2 AST)	63 1.0%	82 99.0%
Q3 - 5:01	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	60 0.8%	82 99.2%
Q3 - 5:03	SAS	MISS Parker 2' Layup	60 0.8%	82 99.2%
Q3 - 5:26	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	60 0.7%	82 99.3%
Q3 - 5:27	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 3PT Jump Shot	60 0.7%	82 99.3%
Q3 - 5:49	LAC	Gordon 21' Jump Shot (18 PTS) (Taylor 3 AST)	60 0.7%	82 99.3%
Q3 - 6:03	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Parker 6 AST)	58 0.6%	82 99.4%
Q3 - 6:20	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	58 0.9%	79 99.1%
Q3 - 6:20	LAC	MISS Randolph Free Throw 1 of 1	58 0.9%	79 99.1%
Q3 - 6:44	SAS	Finley 13' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Parker 5 AST)	56 0.7%	79 99.3%
Q3 - 6:49	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	56 0.9%	77 99.1%
Q3 - 6:50	SAS	MISS Finley 3PT Jump Shot	56 1.0%	77 99.0%
Q3 - 7:12	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	56 1.0%	77 99.0%
Q3 - 7:13	LAC	MISS Randolph Free Throw 2 of 2	56 1.0%	77 99.0%
Q3 - 7:13	LAC	MISS Randolph Free Throw 1 of 2	56 1.1%	77 98.9%
Q3 - 7:25	SAS	Thomas 19' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Parker 4 AST)	56 1.1%	77 98.9%
Q3 - 7:43	LAC	Taylor 22' Jump Shot (15 PTS)	56 1.3%	75 98.7%
Q3 - 7:59	SAS	Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Parker 3 AST)	54 1.1%	75 98.9%
Q3 - 8:12	LAC	Randolph 18' Jump Shot (10 PTS)	54 1.6%	72 98.4%
Q3 - 8:39	SAS	Parker 20' Pullup Jump Shot (15 PTS)	52 1.4%	72 98.6%
Q3 - 8:50	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	52 1.6%	70 98.4%
Q3 - 8:51	LAC	MISS Gordon 1' Driving Layup	52 1.7%	70 98.3%
Q3 - 9:03	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (13 PTS)	52 1.9%	70 98.1%
Q3 - 9:16	LAC	Mason Jr. STEAL (1 STL)	52 2.2%	68 97.8%
Q3 - 9:32	SAS	Finley 25' 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mason Jr. 6 AST)	52 2.5%	68 97.5%
Q3 - 9:53	LAC	Gordon 26' 3PT Jump Shot (16 PTS) (Novak 1 AST)	52 3.4%	65 96.6%
Q3 - 10:20	SAS	Thomas 2' Layup (8 PTS) (Mason Jr. 5 AST)	49 2.7%	65 97.3%
Q3 - 10:34	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	49 3.0%	63 97.0%
Q3 - 10:35	LAC	MISS Novak 17' Jump Shot	49 3.2%	63 96.8%
Q3 - 10:52	SAS	Bonner 5' Turnaround Bank Shot (10 PTS) (Thomas 1 AST)	49 3.5%	63 96.5%
Q3 - 11:11	LAC	Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Randolph 2 AST)	49 4.1%	61 95.9%
Q3 - 11:34	SAS	Thomas 10' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Mason Jr. 4 AST)	46 3.2%	61 96.8%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS		46 3.6%	59 96.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	SPURS Rebound	46 3.6%	59 96.4%
Q2 - 0:00.0	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	46 3.9%	59 96.1%
Q2 - 0:00.0	LAC	Finley STEAL (1 STL)	46 3.6%	59 96.4%
Q2 - 0:02.0	SAS	Gooden REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	46 4.2%	59 95.8%
Q2 - 0:02.0	SAS	Gooden 1' Tip Shot (2 PTS)	46 4.2%	59 95.8%
Q2 - 0:02.0	SAS	MISS Ginobili 3' Layup	46 5.3%	57 94.7%
Q2 - 0:29.0	LAC	Gordon Free Throw 2 of 2 (10 PTS)	46 4.9%	57 95.1%
Q2 - 0:29.0	LAC	Gordon Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	45 4.8%	57 95.2%
Q2 - 0:33.0	SAS	Ginobili 1' Driving Layup (12 PTS)	44 4.2%	57 95.8%
Q2 - 0:43.0	LAC	Jones Dunk (7 PTS)	44 4.9%	55 95.1%
Q2 - 0:46.0	SAS	Thomas Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T2)	42 4.2%	55 95.8%
Q2 - 1:00	LAC	Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Kaman 1 AST)	42 3.8%	55 96.2%
Q2 - 1:06	LAC	Kaman REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	39 2.9%	55 97.1%
Q2 - 1:07	SAS	MISS Finley 10' Jump Shot	39 2.8%	55 97.2%
Q2 - 1:29	LAC	Randolph 1' Layup (8 PTS)	39 2.7%	55 97.3%
Q2 - 2:00	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	37 2.3%	55 97.7%
Q2 - 2:02	SAS	MISS Gooden 16' Jump Shot	37 2.3%	55 97.7%
Q2 - 2:20	LAC	Ginobili STEAL (2 STL)	37 2.1%	55 97.9%
Q2 - 2:38	SAS	SPURS Turnover: Shot Clock (T#1)	37 2.4%	55 97.6%
Q2 - 2:38	SAS	SPURS Rebound	37 2.1%	55 97.9%
Q2 - 2:38	SAS	MISS Vaughn Layup	37 2.3%	55 97.7%
Q2 - 3:05	LAC	Taylor Driving Layup (13 PTS)	37 2.1%	55 97.9%
Q2 - 3:16	LAC	Thornton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	35 1.9%	55 98.1%
Q2 - 3:17	SAS	MISS Finley 24' 3PT Jump Shot	35 1.8%	55 98.2%
Q2 - 3:31	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	35 1.6%	55 98.4%
Q2 - 3:34	LAC	MISS Acker 24' 3PT Jump Shot	35 1.7%	55 98.3%
Q2 - 3:48	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	35 1.9%	55 98.1%
Q2 - 3:49	SAS	MISS Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2	35 1.9%	55 98.1%
Q2 - 3:49	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (13 PTS)	35 1.7%	55 98.3%
Q2 - 4:09	LAC	Taylor 19' Jump Shot (11 PTS)	35 1.9%	54 98.1%
Q2 - 4:31	SAS	Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Duncan 2 AST)	33 1.7%	54 98.3%
Q2 - 4:51	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	33 2.2%	51 97.8%
Q2 - 4:52	LAC	MISS Kaman 2' Layup	33 2.3%	51 97.7%
Q2 - 5:07	SAS	Hill 1' Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Vaughn 2 AST)	33 2.6%	51 97.4%
Q2 - 5:29	LAC	Kaman 1' Dunk (4 PTS) (Taylor 1 AST)	33 2.9%	49 97.1%
Q2 - 5:41	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:2)	31 2.6%	49 97.4%
Q2 - 5:43	SAS	MISS Vaughn 2' Layup	31 2.5%	49 97.5%
Q2 - 6:01	LAC	Taylor 3PT Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	31 2.4%	49 97.6%
Q2 - 6:05	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	28 2.0%	49 98.0%
Q2 - 6:08	LAC	Duncan BLOCK (2 BLK)	28 1.8%	49 98.2%
Q2 - 6:15	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	28 2.0%	49 98.0%
Q2 - 6:17	SAS	MISS Duncan 17' Jump Shot	28 1.9%	49 98.1%
Q2 - 6:36	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	28 1.7%	49 98.3%
Q2 - 6:37	LAC	MISS Taylor 20' Jump Shot	28 1.8%	49 98.2%
Q2 - 6:52	LAC	Jones REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	28 1.9%	49 98.1%
Q2 - 6:54	LAC	MISS Kaman Layup	28 1.8%	49 98.2%
Q2 - 7:01	LAC	Kaman REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	28 2.0%	49 98.0%
Q2 - 7:02	LAC	MISS Jones 26' 3PT Jump Shot	28 1.8%	49 98.2%
Q2 - 7:26	SAS	Duncan 1' Layup (12 PTS) (Vaughn 1 AST)	28 2.0%	49 98.0%
Q2 - 7:34	SAS	Vaughn REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	28 2.2%	47 97.8%
Q2 - 7:35	LAC	MISS Thornton 15' Jump Shot	28 2.3%	47 97.7%
Q2 - 7:48	SAS	Duncan 9' Driving Bank Shot (10 PTS)	28 2.4%	47 97.6%
Q2 - 8:03	LAC	Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Acker 1 AST)	28 2.9%	45 97.1%
Q2 - 8:17	LAC	Thornton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	25 2.3%	45 97.7%
Q2 - 8:18	SAS	MISS Bonner 25' 3PT Jump Shot	25 2.2%	45 97.8%
Q2 - 8:44	LAC	Kaman 8' Hook Shot (2 PTS)	25 2.1%	45 97.9%
Q2 - 8:58	LAC	Clippers Rebound	23 1.9%	45 98.1%
Q2 - 8:58	SAS	MISS Hill 3PT Jump Shot	23 1.8%	45 98.2%
Q2 - 9:25	LAC	Acker 3' Running Layup (2 PTS)	23 1.7%	45 98.3%
Q2 - 9:32	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	21 1.6%	45 98.4%
Q2 - 9:34	LAC	MISS Thornton 22' Jump Shot	21 1.4%	45 98.6%
Q2 - 9:57	SAS	Ginobili 3PT Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Udoka 1 AST)	21 1.6%	45 98.4%
Q2 - 10:05	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	21 2.0%	42 98.0%
Q2 - 10:06	LAC	MISS Kaman 17' Jump Shot	21 2.1%	42 97.9%
Q2 - 10:20	LAC	Kaman REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	21 2.2%	42 97.8%
Q2 - 10:21	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	21 2.2%	42 97.8%
Q2 - 10:30	LAC	Jones 1' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	21 2.0%	42 98.0%
Q2 - 10:40	LAC	Acker REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	19 1.8%	42 98.2%
Q2 - 10:41	LAC	MISS Novak 25' 3PT Jump Shot	19 1.7%	42 98.3%
Q2 - 11:00	SAS	Ginobili 24' 3PT Jump Shot (7 PTS) (Mason Jr. 3 AST)	19 1.8%	42 98.2%
Q2 - 11:18	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	19 2.4%	39 97.6%
Q2 - 11:19	LAC	MISS Acker 19' Jump Shot	19 2.5%	39 97.5%
Q2 - 11:44	LAC	Novak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 2.6%	39 97.4%
Q2 - 11:45	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 20' Jump Shot	19 2.5%	39 97.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS		19 2.4%	39 97.6%
Q1 - 0:00.0	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 2.4%	39 97.6%
Q1 - 0:01.0	LAC	MISS Jones 5' Jump Bank Shot	19 2.6%	39 97.4%
Q1 - 0:09.0	SAS	Mason Jr. 22' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	19 2.7%	39 97.3%
Q1 - 0:28.0	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	19 3.1%	37 96.9%
Q1 - 0:29.0	LAC	MISS Kaman 15' Jump Shot	19 3.1%	37 96.9%
Q1 - 0:38.0	SAS	Hill 20' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Mason Jr. 2 AST)	19 3.3%	37 96.7%
Q1 - 0:47.0	SAS	Udoka REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	19 3.7%	35 96.3%
Q1 - 0:48.0	LAC	MISS Gordon 16' Jump Shot	19 3.8%	35 96.2%
Q1 - 0:57.0	SAS	Thomas 7' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS) (Ginobili 2 AST)	19 4.0%	35 96.0%
Q1 - 1:10	LAC	Thornton 2' Driving Layup (2 PTS)	19 4.6%	33 95.4%
Q1 - 1:33	SAS	Ginobili 1' Layup (4 PTS)	17 4.1%	33 95.9%
Q1 - 1:46	LAC	Gordon Free Throw 2 of 2 (5 PTS)	17 4.6%	31 95.4%
Q1 - 1:46	LAC	Gordon Free Throw 1 of 2 (4 PTS)	16 4.6%	31 95.4%
Q1 - 1:49	LAC	Novak REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 4.1%	31 95.9%
Q1 - 1:50	SAS	MISS Thomas 16' Jump Shot	15 4.0%	31 96.0%
Q1 - 2:04	LAC	Ginobili STEAL (1 STL)	15 4.0%	31 96.0%
Q1 - 2:29	SAS	Thomas 17' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Ginobili 1 AST)	15 4.3%	31 95.7%
Q1 - 2:42	SAS	Thomas REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	15 4.8%	29 95.2%
Q1 - 2:43	LAC	MISS Gordon 26' 3PT Jump Shot	15 4.9%	29 95.1%
Q1 - 3:00	SAS	Ginobili 14' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	15 5.1%	29 94.9%
Q1 - 3:18	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	15 5.6%	27 94.4%
Q1 - 3:19	LAC	MISS Randolph 1' Layup	15 5.7%	27 94.3%
Q1 - 3:32	SAS	Bonner REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	15 6.1%	27 93.9%
Q1 - 3:32	SAS	Bonner 1' Putback Layup (5 PTS)	15 6.1%	27 93.9%
Q1 - 3:34	SAS	MISS Bonner 9' Jump Bank Shot	15 7.0%	25 93.0%
Q1 - 3:52	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	15 6.6%	25 93.4%
Q1 - 3:53	LAC	MISS Randolph 17' Jump Shot	15 6.8%	25 93.2%
Q1 - 4:20	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (11 PTS)	15 7.2%	25 92.8%
Q1 - 4:33	LAC	Gordon 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Randolph 1 AST)	15 7.8%	23 92.2%
Q1 - 4:59	LAC	Randolph REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 6.6%	23 93.4%
Q1 - 4:59	SAS	MISS Parker Free Throw 2 of 2	12 6.6%	23 93.4%
Q1 - 4:59	SAS	Parker Free Throw 1 of 2 (9 PTS)	12 6.2%	23 93.8%
Q1 - 5:03	SAS	Finley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	12 6.8%	22 93.2%
Q1 - 5:05	LAC	Duncan BLOCK (1 BLK)	12 7.0%	22 93.0%
Q1 - 5:23	SAS	Duncan 13' Jump Bank Shot (8 PTS) (Bonner 2 AST)	12 7.5%	22 92.5%
Q1 - 5:40	LAC	Taylor 21' Jump Shot (6 PTS)	12 8.0%	20 92.0%
Q1 - 5:45	LAC	Taylor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	10 7.5%	20 92.5%
Q1 - 5:47	LAC	Bonner BLOCK (1 BLK)	10 7.0%	20 93.0%
Q1 - 6:09	SAS	Parker 1' Driving Layup (8 PTS) (Duncan 1 AST)	10 7.3%	20 92.7%
Q1 - 6:26	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	10 7.9%	18 92.1%
Q1 - 6:27	LAC	MISS Jones 25' 3PT Jump Shot	10 8.1%	18 91.9%
Q1 - 6:47	SAS	Parker Layup (6 PTS) (Mason Jr. 1 AST)	10 8.6%	18 91.4%
Q1 - 7:05	LAC	Taylor 1' Layup (4 PTS)	10 9.0%	16 91.0%
Q1 - 7:22	SAS	Parker 1' Layup (4 PTS)	8 8.4%	16 91.6%
Q1 - 7:30	LAC	Parker STEAL (2 STL)	8 9.0%	14 91.0%
Q1 - 7:56	SAS	Finley 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Bonner 1 AST)	8 9.8%	14 90.2%
Q1 - 8:07	SAS	Mason Jr. REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 11.2%	11 88.8%
Q1 - 8:08	LAC	MISS Gordon 10' Jump Shot	8 11.4%	11 88.6%
Q1 - 8:20	SAS	Parker 5' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	8 12.0%	11 88.0%
Q1 - 8:40	LAC	Randolph 1' Layup (6 PTS) (Gordon 1 AST)	8 13.0%	9 87.0%
Q1 - 9:02	SAS	Duncan Layup (6 PTS)	6 12.0%	9 88.0%
Q1 - 9:04	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	6 13.0%	7 87.0%
Q1 - 9:06	SAS	MISS Mason Jr. 25' 3PT Jump Shot	6 13.5%	7 86.5%
Q1 - 9:24	LAC	Randolph Free Throw 2 of 2 (4 PTS)	6 13.0%	7 87.0%
Q1 - 9:24	LAC	Randolph Free Throw 1 of 2 (3 PTS)	5 12.8%	7 87.2%
Q1 - 9:38	SAS	Duncan 19' Jump Shot (4 PTS) (Parker 2 AST)	4 12.0%	7 88.0%
Q1 - 9:48	SAS	Duncan REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 13.0%	5 87.0%
Q1 - 9:49	LAC	MISS Taylor 3' Turnaround Hook Shot	4 13.2%	5 86.8%
Q1 - 9:56	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	4 13.8%	5 86.2%
Q1 - 9:56	SAS	Duncan Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	4 14.1%	4 85.9%
Q1 - 10:05	LAC	Parker STEAL (1 STL)	4 14.6%	3 85.4%
Q1 - 10:12	LAC	Gordon REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 15.6%	3 84.4%
Q1 - 10:14	SAS	MISS Parker 1' Layup	4 15.2%	3 84.8%
Q1 - 10:18	SAS	Parker REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	4 14.6%	3 85.4%
Q1 - 10:20	LAC	MISS Gordon 17' Jump Shot	4 14.9%	3 85.1%
Q1 - 10:41	SAS	Bonner 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Parker 1 AST)	4 15.6%	3 84.4%
Q1 - 10:56	LAC	Taylor 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	4 17.6%	0 82.4%
Q1 - 11:15	LAC	Taylor REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	2 15.8%	0 84.2%
Q1 - 11:16	SAS	MISS Bonner 3PT Jump Shot	2 15.6%	0 84.4%
Q1 - 11:39	LAC	Randolph 18' Jump Shot (2 PTS)	2 15.0%	0 85.0%
Q1 - 12:00	SAS	Jump Ball Duncan vs. Camby: Tip to Randolph	0 14.2%	0 85.8%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

LAC

1.17 58.3%

SAS

1.19 59.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

LAC

60%

SAS

76%

Midrange

LAC

44%

SAS

48%

3PT | Effective 3PT

LAC

12.0

50%

75%

SAS

15.0

42%

63%

Free Throws

LAC

63%

SAS

82%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Clippers

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
M. Taylor	23	82%	11.5 / 14
E. Gordon	18	64%	9.0 / 14
Z. Randolph	16	73%	8.0 / 11
A. Thornton	16	62%	8.0 / 13
F. Jones	7	39%	3.5 / 9
D. Jordan	7	50%	3.5 / 7
C. Kaman	4	29%	2.0 / 7
A. Acker	4	33%	2.0 / 6
S. Novak	3	50%	1.5 / 3
M. Camby	0	-	0.0 / 0

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Spurs

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
T. Parker	18	82%	9.0 / 11
D. Gooden	14	70%	7.0 / 10
M. Ginobili	14	88%	7.0 / 8
T. Duncan	13	81%	6.5 / 8
M. Finley	11	69%	5.5 / 8
M. Bonner	10	71%	5.0 / 7
K. Thomas	10	83%	5.0 / 6
R. Mason Jr.	8	44%	4.0 / 9
G. Hill	8	40%	4.0 / 10
I. Udoka	3	30%	1.5 / 5
J. Vaughn	2	25%	1.0 / 4
B. Bowen	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

LAC

+12

-11

SAS

+11

-3

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

LAC

1.17 58.3%

SAS

1.19 59.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	102.2 108.3	LAC 118.1 SAS 132.1 +14.1
Pace	92.2 88.7	LAC 84.9 +2.7 SAS 82.2
Avg. Poss. Time	15.8 16.5	LAC 17.0 +0.6 SAS 17.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	48.1% 51.3%	LAC 56.4% SAS 62.2% +5.8%
TO %	15.3% 12.4%	LAC 11.5% SAS 5.4% +6.1%
ORB %	25.1% 22.2%	LAC 22.5% SAS 23.5% +1.0%
FTrt	27.5 25.1	LAC 20.5 +7.1 SAS 13.4
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	58.3% 57.1%	LAC 42.5% SAS 67.4% +24.9%
STL %	7.5% 6.5%	LAC 2.4% SAS 11.9% +9.5%
BLK %	9.0% 6.1%	LAC 8.6% +2.1% SAS 6.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.08 and 2.08.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	50.6% 53.4%	LAC 58.3% SAS 59.7% +1.4%
Rim FG%	56.5% 58.8%	LAC 60.0% SAS 75.9% +15.9%
Mid FG%	37.7% 42.7%	LAC 43.8% SAS 48.3% +4.5%
3P %	35.4% 38.6%	LAC 50.0% +8.3% SAS 41.7%
FT %	73.7% 76.2%	LAC 62.5% SAS 81.8% +19.3%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	37.0% 30.3%	LAC 38.5% +3.1% SAS 35.4%
Mid Att. %	40.4% 44.9%	LAC 41.0% SAS 35.4% +5.7%
3P Att. %	22.6% 24.8%	LAC 20.5% SAS 29.3% +8.8%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	LAC	SAS
Possessions	83	84
Possession Minutes	23.5	24.5
Points	98	111
Rebounds	35	39
Assists	17	31
Steals	2	10
Blocks	5	4
Turnovers (Team)	11 (0)	3 (2)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (3)	8 (3)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (1)	31 (0)
Field Goals	40-78	46-82
At-the-Rim FG	18-30	22-29
Midrange FG	14-32	14-29
2-Point FG	32-62	36-58
3-Point FG	8-16	10-24
Free Throws	10-16	9-11
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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30 Los Angeles Clippers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred Jones F · 6'2" 225 · 30	39.2	7	39%	3	3	1	2	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-5	20%
Mike Taylor G · 6'2" 165 · 23	33.8	23	82%	3	3	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-3	33%	8-11	73%	2-2	100%
Eric Gordon G · 6'3" 215 · 20	32.2	18	64%	1	4	0	0	2	3	0	1	4-4	100%	1-6	17%	4-6	67%
Zach Randolph F · 6'9" 250 · 28	24.6	16	73%	6	2	0	1	1	2	1	5	4-7	57%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Camby C · 6'11" 240 · 35	3.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Al Thornton F · 6'8" 235 · 25	37.7	16	62%	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-1	0%	8-13	62%	0-0	-
Steve Novak F · 6'10" 225 · 26	21.6	3	50%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Chris Kaman C · 7'0" 265 · 27	18.9	4	29%	4	1	0	0	3	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Alex Acker G · 6'5" 185 · 26	17.0	4	33%	8	2	0	1	0	0	3	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan C · 6'11" 265 · 21	12.1	7	50%	3	0	0	1	1	2	2	1	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Mardy Collins G · 6'6" 220 · 25
Brian Skinner F-C · 6'9" 255 · 33
Baron Davis #1 · G · 6'3" 212 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ricky Davis #31 · G · 6'7" 195 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	58%	35	17	2	5	11	0	9	26	10-16	63%	32-62	52%	8-16	50%

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30 Los Angeles Clippers

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Fred Jones F · 6'2" 225 · 30	39.2	7	39%	3	3	1	2	2	1	1	2	0-0	-	2-4	50%	1-5	20%
Mike Taylor G · 6'2" 165 · 23	33.8	23	82%	3	3	0	0	1	2	1	2	1-3	33%	8-11	73%	2-2	100%
Eric Gordon G · 6'3" 215 · 20	32.2	18	64%	1	4	0	0	2	3	0	1	4-4	100%	1-6	17%	4-6	67%
Zach Randolph F · 6'9" 250 · 28	24.6	16	73%	6	2	0	1	1	2	1	5	4-7	57%	6-8	75%	0-0	-
Marcus Camby C · 6'11" 240 · 35	3.0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Al Thornton F · 6'8" 235 · 25	37.7	16	62%	3	0	1	0	0	2	0	3	0-1	0%	8-13	62%	0-0	-
Steve Novak F · 6'10" 225 · 26	21.6	3	50%	4	2	0	0	1	0	0	4	0-0	-	0-1	0%	1-2	50%
Chris Kaman C · 7'0" 265 · 27	18.9	4	29%	4	1	0	0	3	2	1	3	0-0	-	2-7	29%	0-0	-
Alex Acker G · 6'5" 185 · 26	17.0	4	33%	8	2	0	1	0	0	3	5	0-0	-	2-5	40%	0-1	0%
DeAndre Jordan C · 6'11" 265 · 21	12.1	7	50%	3	0	0	1	1	2	2	1	1-1	100%	3-7	43%	0-0	-
Mardy Collins G · 6'6" 220 · 25
Brian Skinner F-C · 6'9" 255 · 33
Baron Davis #1 · G · 6'3" 212 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Ricky Davis #31 · G · 6'7" 195 · 30	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	98	58%	35	17	2	5	11	0	9	26	10-16	63%	32-62	52%	8-16	50%

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6 San Antonio Spurs

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Roger Mason Jr. G · 6'5" 205 · 29	27.0	8	44%	8	6	1	0	0	1	1	7	1-1	100%	2-3	67%	1-6	17%
Matt Bonner C · 6'10" 235 · 29	24.8	10	71%	2	2	0	1	0	2	1	1	0-0	-	2-3	67%	2-4	50%
Michael Finley F · 6'7" 225 · 36	20.2	11	69%	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0-0	-	1-2	50%	3-6	50%
Tony Parker G · 6'2" 185 · 27	17.0	18	82%	1	6	2	0	0	0	0	1	1-2	50%	7-9	78%	1-1	100%
Tim Duncan F · 6'11" 250 · 33	13.7	13	81%	6	2	0	2	0	0	1	5	3-4	75%	5-6	83%	0-0	-
George Hill G · 6'3" 188 · 23	26.2	8	40%	1	0	2	0	1	3	1	0	0-0	-	4-8	50%	0-2	0%
Ime Udoka G-F · 6'5" 220 · 32	20.3	3	30%	4	2	0	0	0	1	0	4	0-0	-	0-3	0%	1-2	50%
Drew Gooden F · 6'10" 250 · 28	19.4	14	70%	5	0	0	0	0	4	2	3	2-2	100%	6-9	67%	0-0	-
Jacque Vaughn G · 6'1" 190 · 34	19.1	2	25%	3	4	0	0	0	1	0	3	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-0	-
Kurt Thomas F · 6'9" 240 · 36	18.7	10	83%	5	1	0	0	1	2	2	3	0-0	-	5-6	83%	0-0	-
Manu Ginobili G · 6'6" 205 · 32	17.1	14	88%	1	7	3	1	0	0	0	1	2-2	100%	3-4	75%	2-3	67%
Bruce Bowen F · 6'7" 200 · 38	16.4	0	0%	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-0	-
Ian Mahinmi #28 · C · 6'11" 262 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Fabricio Oberto #7 · C · 6'10" 245 · 34	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Malik Hairston #1 · G · 6'6" 220 · 22	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	111	60%	39	31	10	4	3	0	8	31	9-11	82%	36-58	62%	10-24	42%

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Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE