Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, March 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bucks | 18% | 90 | 94 |
 | 2 | Magic | 82% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bobcats | 42% | 90 | 100 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26 | Thunder | 33% | 94 | 96 |
 | 19 | Raptors | 67% | 100 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Timberwolves | 13% | 88 | 85 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 63% | 102 | 103 |
| 22 | Nets | 37% | 97 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 59% | 100 | 93 | |
 | 23 | Knicks | 41% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 10 | Mavericks | 54% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, March 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 62% | 97 | 92 |
 | 21 | Pistons | 38% | 93 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 39% | 95 | 87 |
 | 17 | Bulls | 61% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Wednesday, March 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 42% | 90 | 102 |
| 13 | Hawks | 58% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 16% | 87 | 87 | |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 84% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 46% | 98 | 88 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 25% | 93 | 88 |
| 14 | 76ers | 75% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 42% | 96 | 106 |
| 20 | Raptors | 58% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 66% | 96 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 36% | 102 | 140 |
| 23 | Knicks | 64% | 106 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 46% | 94 | 101 |
| 10 | Hornets | 54% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 39% | 92 | 82 |
| 2 | Magic | 61% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 9 | Mavericks | 75% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 12 | Suns | 54% | 105 | 118 |
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 42% | 94 | 91 |
| 17 | Bulls | 58% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 73% | 103 | 107 |
| 25 | Thunder | 27% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 31% | 96 | 106 |
| 10 | Spurs | 69% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 5 | Jazz | 62% | 97 | 99 |
Monday, March 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 20% | 92 | 97 |
| 13 | Hawks | 80% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 65% | 101 | 101 |
| 30 | Wizards | 35% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 12% | 88 | 77 |
| 4 | Celtics | 88% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 24% | 89 | 82 |
| 12 | Heat | 76% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 69% | 105 | 106 |
| 23 | Knicks | 31% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 51% | 105 | 115 |
| 14 | Suns | 49% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 30% | 91 | 114 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 108 |
Sunday, March 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 47% | 91 | 101 |
| 21 | Pistons | 53% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 44% | 88 | 87 |
| 11 | Spurs | 56% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 45% | 97 | 97 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 55% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 38% | 98 | 76 |
| 20 | Raptors | 62% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 70% | 97 | 96 |
| 25 | Nets | 30% | 90 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 30% | 96 | 89 |
| 10 | Hornets | 70% | 103 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 64% | 101 | 112 |
| 28 | Kings | 36% | 96 | 100 |
Saturday, March 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 25% | 89 | 96 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 75% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 35% | 94 | 108 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 16% | 95 | 103 |
| 2 | Magic | 84% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 76% | 97 | 105 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 24% | 88 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 59% | 104 | 117 |
| 17 | Bulls | 41% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 97 | 96 |
| 23 | Bucks | 42% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 16% | 96 | 96 |
| 12 | Suns | 84% | 109 | 128 |
Friday, March 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mavericks | 46% | 102 | 94 |
| 18 | Pacers | 54% | 103 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 49% | 94 | 102 |
| 20 | Raptors | 51% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 52% | 97 | 88 |
| 23 | Nets | 48% | 96 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kings | 28% | 102 | 121 |
| 22 | Knicks | 72% | 109 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 32% | 91 | 90 |
| 21 | Pistons | 68% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 19% | 85 | 84 |
| 9 | Hornets | 81% | 97 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 69% | 101 | 101 |
| 26 | Thunder | 31% | 95 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 20% | 89 | 88 |
| 7 | Rockets | 80% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 49% | 91 | 80 |
| 10 | Spurs | 51% | 92 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 16% | 92 | 105 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 84% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 53% | 104 | 111 |
| 19 | Warriors | 47% | 102 | 119 |
Thursday, March 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 47% | 96 | 87 |
| 15 | Hawks | 53% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 88 | 92 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 78% | 98 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 20% | 100 | 106 |
| 2 | Lakers | 80% | 111 | 114 |
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Heat | 23% | 87 | 108 |
| 3 | Celtics | 77% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 18% | 90 | 88 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 82% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 100 | 95 |
| 22 | Pacers | 42% | 98 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 39% | 102 | 115 | |
| 17 | Knicks | 61% | 106 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 71% | 101 | 111 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 29% | 93 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 58% | 97 | 106 |
| 21 | Bucks | 42% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 16% | 88 | 93 |
| 6 | Hornets | 84% | 101 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 99 | 103 |
| 26 | Thunder | 48% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pistons | 23% | 84 | 101 |
| 7 | Rockets | 77% | 94 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 36% | 99 | 116 |
| 12 | Suns | 64% | 104 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 36% | 95 | 108 |
| 25 | Clippers | 64% | 100 | 123 |
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 24% | 94 | 97 |
| 13 | Hawks | 76% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 34% | 91 | 93 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 66% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 60% | 99 | 121 |
| 17 | Bulls | 40% | 95 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 32% | 91 | 101 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 31% | 91 | 86 |
| 15 | Spurs | 69% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 17% | 92 | 88 |
| 4 | Jazz | 83% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 32% | 101 | 120 |
| 18 | Warriors | 68% | 107 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 27% | 94 | 94 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 102 | 93 |
Monday, March 16, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Raptors | 30% | 91 | 86 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 70% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 96 | 103 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 34% | 91 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 39% | 88 | 95 |
| 7 | Hornets | 61% | 92 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 68% | 95 | 76 |
| 27 | Thunder | 32% | 89 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 23% | 94 | 96 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 77% | 104 | 121 |
Sunday, March 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 94 | 80 |
| 15 | Hawks | 51% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 93 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 82% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 26% | 87 | 89 |
| 17 | Pistons | 74% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 64% | 99 | 77 |
| 24 | Bucks | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 41% | 91 | 77 |
| 16 | 76ers | 59% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 44% | 101 | 87 |
| 21 | Raptors | 56% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 34% | 98 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 66% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 38% | 97 | 87 |
| 5 | Magic | 62% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 44% | 99 | 104 |
| 28 | Wizards | 56% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 43% | 109 | 154 |
| 18 | Warriors | 57% | 111 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 59% | 98 | 105 | |
| 27 | Clippers | 41% | 95 | 107 |
Saturday, March 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 52% | 97 | 129 |
| 12 | Heat | 48% | 96 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 58% | 95 | 100 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 42% | 92 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hornets | 56% | 95 | 79 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 44% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 41% | 88 | 88 |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 18% | 93 | 94 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 82% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 23% | 97 | 95 |
| 13 | Suns | 77% | 107 | 106 |