Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 9 | Mavericks | 47% | 96 | 87 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Lakers | 80% | 111 | 114 |
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Heat | 23% | 87 | 108 |
 | 3 | Celtics | 77% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Bobcats | 82% | 102 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 100 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Nets | 39% | 102 | 115 | |
 | 17 | Knicks | 61% | 106 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Magic | 58% | 97 | 106 |
 | 21 | Bucks | 42% | 95 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Timberwolves | 16% | 88 | 93 |
| 6 | Hornets | 84% | 101 | 94 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Bulls | 52% | 99 | 103 |
 | 26 | Thunder | 48% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Pistons | 23% | 84 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Tuesday, March 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 24% | 94 | 97 |
| 13 | Hawks | 76% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 34% | 91 | 93 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 66% | 96 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 60% | 99 | 121 |
| 17 | Bulls | 40% | 95 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 32% | 91 | 101 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 31% | 91 | 86 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 17% | 92 | 88 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cpath%20d='M376,81.4L341.7,155H204.3L161,247.8h-38.8c0.3-4.6,1.2-9.3,2.7-13.8c3.7-11.2,10.7-20.4,19.5-27c2.3,2.6,4.4,5.5,6.3,8.5%20c0.3,0.5,0.9,0.4,1.1,0c0,0,0,0,0,0l62.6-134.2H376z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M57.8,276.6c-3.9,7.8-9.5,14.5-16.3,19.6c-5.7-6.6-10.2-14.3-13.1-23.1c-2-5.9-3.1-11.8-3.4-17.7h38.6%20C63.1,262.7,61.2,269.9,57.8,276.6'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,255.4v64.2c-15.8-0.9-30.7-7.3-42.3-17.9c7.4-5.7,13.4-13.1,17.8-21.7c3.9-7.8,6.1-16.1,6.6-24.6H89.1z'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M60.9,234c1.5,4.5,2.4,9.2,2.7,13.8H25c0.8-15.1,6.7-29.4,16.5-40.7C50.2,213.7,57.1,222.9,60.9,234'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M89.1,183.7v64.2H71.2c-0.3-5.4-1.4-10.9-3.1-16.2c-4.1-12.4-11.7-22.6-21.3-30c6.9-6.4,15.2-11.4,24.7-14.6%20C77.3,185.1,83.2,184,89.1,183.7'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M114.6,247.8H96.7v-64.2c15.8,0.9,30.8,7.2,42.4,17.9c-9.9,7.6-17.3,18-21.4,30.1C115.9,237,114.9,242.4,114.6,247.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M139.1,301.8c-6.9,6.3-15.2,11.3-24.6,14.5c-5.9,2-11.9,3.1-17.8,3.4v-64.2h17.8c0.5,8.5,2.7,16.8,6.6,24.6%20C125.5,288.7,131.6,296.1,139.1,301.8'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M161,255.4c-0.8,15.1-6.7,29.5-16.6,40.9c-6.9-5.1-12.5-11.8-16.4-19.7c-3.4-6.7-5.3-13.9-5.8-21.2H161z'/%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 4 | Jazz | 83% | 105 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 32% | 101 | 120 |
| 18 | Warriors | 68% | 107 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 27% | 94 | 94 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 102 | 93 |
Monday, March 16, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Raptors | 30% | 91 | 86 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 70% | 97 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 96 | 103 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 34% | 91 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Rockets | 39% | 88 | 95 |
| 7 | Hornets | 61% | 92 | 84 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 68% | 95 | 76 |
| 27 | Thunder | 32% | 89 | 78 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 23% | 94 | 96 | |
| 5 | Nuggets | 77% | 104 | 121 |
Sunday, March 15, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 49% | 94 | 80 |
| 15 | Hawks | 51% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 18% | 94 | 93 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 82% | 106 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 26% | 87 | 89 |
| 17 | Pistons | 74% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 64% | 99 | 77 |
| 24 | Bucks | 36% | 94 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Heat | 41% | 91 | 77 |
| 16 | 76ers | 59% | 94 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 44% | 101 | 87 |
| 21 | Raptors | 56% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 34% | 98 | 100 |
| 3 | Lakers | 66% | 104 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 38% | 97 | 87 |
| 5 | Magic | 62% | 101 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kings | 44% | 99 | 104 |
| 28 | Wizards | 56% | 101 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Suns | 43% | 109 | 154 |
| 18 | Warriors | 57% | 111 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 59% | 98 | 105 | |
| 27 | Clippers | 41% | 95 | 107 |
Saturday, March 14, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 52% | 97 | 129 |
| 12 | Heat | 48% | 96 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 58% | 95 | 100 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 42% | 92 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hornets | 56% | 95 | 79 | |
| 21 | Bulls | 44% | 93 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 41% | 88 | 88 |
| 7 | Rockets | 59% | 91 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 18% | 93 | 94 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 82% | 105 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Thunder | 23% | 97 | 95 |
| 13 | Suns | 77% | 107 | 106 |
Friday, March 13, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 52% | 91 | 91 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 48% | 90 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 39% | 94 | 101 |
| 16 | 76ers | 61% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 46% | 94 | 99 |
| 18 | Raptors | 54% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Magic | 71% | 99 | 112 |
| 26 | Wizards | 29% | 91 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 36% | 96 | 87 |
| 15 | Hawks | 64% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 14% | 87 | 92 |
| 5 | Celtics | 86% | 100 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 54% | 106 | 102 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 46% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hornets | 60% | 96 | 95 | |
| 23 | Bucks | 40% | 93 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 30% | 93 | 100 | |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 99 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 76% | 102 | 126 |
| 27 | Kings | 24% | 92 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 54% | 105 | 110 |
| 19 | Warriors | 46% | 103 | 119 |
Thursday, March 12, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Lakers | 42% | 94 | 102 |
| 11 | Spurs | 58% | 97 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 58% | 101 | 119 |
| 13 | Suns | 42% | 99 | 111 |
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 51% | 99 | 93 |
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 98 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Bulls | 27% | 94 | 79 |
| 5 | Magic | 73% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 41% | 95 | 106 |
| 16 | 76ers | 59% | 98 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 73% | 96 | 109 | |
| 27 | Wizards | 27% | 88 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 31% | 95 | 116 |
| 17 | Pistons | 69% | 102 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 99 |
| 13 | Heat | 43% | 92 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Grizzlies | 46% | 95 | 79 |
| 29 | Timberwolves | 54% | 97 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Lakers | 42% | 95 | 102 |
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 98 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 13% | 90 | 99 |
| 6 | Nuggets | 87% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 34% | 94 | 93 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 66% | 99 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Nets | 44% | 102 | 112 | |
| 21 | Warriors | 56% | 104 | 116 |
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jazz | 62% | 104 | 112 |
| 23 | Pacers | 38% | 101 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 40% | 102 | 120 |
| 21 | Bucks | 60% | 105 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 39% | 87 | 86 |
| 12 | Spurs | 61% | 90 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 44% | 103 | 122 |
| 11 | Suns | 56% | 105 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 42% | 97 | 99 |
| 25 | Kings | 58% | 99 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 80% | 100 | 87 |
| 27 | Clippers | 20% | 89 | 83 |
Monday, March 9, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 51% | 93 | 79 | |
| 15 | Hawks | 49% | 92 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 49% | 91 | 94 |
| 16 | Pistons | 51% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 40% | 95 | 127 |
| 13 | Heat | 60% | 98 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 44% | 97 | 110 |
| 27 | Timberwolves | 56% | 99 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 39% | 94 | 97 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 61% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lakers | 47% | 98 | 94 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 53% | 99 | 111 |
Sunday, March 8, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Magic | 36% | 93 | 86 |
| 2 | Celtics | 64% | 97 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Jazz | 57% | 102 | 109 |
| 19 | Raptors | 43% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 42% | 97 | 98 |
| 12 | Spurs | 58% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 34% | 101 | 101 |
| 20 | Nets | 66% | 106 | 106 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 13% | 85 | 83 |
| 5 | Rockets | 87% | 100 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 64% | 96 | 74 |
| 30 | Thunder | 36% | 91 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 73% | 105 | 106 |
| 26 | Kings | 27% | 97 | 114 |
Saturday, March 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pistons | 39% | 90 | 83 |
| 15 | Hawks | 61% | 94 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 22% | 86 | 89 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 78% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 46% | 99 | 114 |
| 23 | Knicks | 54% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 76ers | 63% | 95 | 110 |
| 26 | Grizzlies | 37% | 91 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Thunder | 16% | 86 | 90 |
| 6 | Hornets | 84% | 98 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 14% | 89 | 103 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 86% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Warriors | 36% | 100 | 120 |
| 21 | Bucks | 64% | 105 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Timberwolves | 17% | 91 | 93 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 83% | 104 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 67% | 103 | 106 |
| 30 | Clippers | 33% | 97 | 105 |
Friday, March 6, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 43% | 91 | 91 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 57% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 24% | 93 | 102 | |
| 3 | Magic | 76% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 46% | 95 | 108 |
| 19 | Raptors | 54% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 44% | 91 | 94 |
| 4 | Celtics | 56% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 36% | 97 | 91 |
| 13 | Pistons | 64% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 39% | 97 | 102 |
| 18 | Bulls | 61% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 34% | 97 | 112 |
| 7 | Rockets | 66% | 102 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 21% | 86 | 78 |
| 11 | Spurs | 79% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 90 |
| 5 | Lakers | 86% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 33% | 98 | 91 |
| 2 | Jazz | 67% | 104 | 97 |