Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Pistons | 39% | 90 | 83 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Heat | 22% | 86 | 89 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bobcats | 46% | 99 | 114 |
 | 23 | Knicks | 54% | 100 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Thunder | 16% | 86 | 90 |
| 6 | Hornets | 84% | 98 | 108 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 9 | Mavericks | 86% | 103 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Bucks | 64% | 105 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 27 | Timberwolves | 17% | 91 | 93 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Friday, March 6, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 43% | 91 | 91 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 57% | 94 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 24% | 93 | 102 | |
 | 3 | Magic | 76% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 46% | 95 | 108 |
 | 19 | Raptors | 54% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 44% | 91 | 94 |
 | 4 | Celtics | 56% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 36% | 97 | 91 |
| 13 | Pistons | 64% | 101 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 39% | 97 | 102 |
 | 18 | Bulls | 61% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 21% | 86 | 78 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Timberwolves | 14% | 93 | 90 |
 | 5 | Lakers | 86% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Thursday, March 5, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 34% | 92 | 88 |
| 5 | Hornets | 66% | 97 | 104 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 33% | 95 | 90 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 67% | 101 | 106 |
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 15% | 88 | 73 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 85% | 101 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 37% | 96 | 129 |
| 12 | Heat | 63% | 101 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celtics | 67% | 98 | 115 |
| 21 | Nets | 33% | 92 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 51% | 103 | 105 |
| 22 | Knicks | 49% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 43% | 94 | 83 |
| 26 | Thunder | 57% | 97 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Warriors | 37% | 103 | 88 |
| 18 | Bulls | 63% | 107 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Spurs | 37% | 91 | 102 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 63% | 95 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 33% | 94 | 94 |
| 3 | Jazz | 67% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 26% | 94 | 105 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 74% | 102 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 40% | 93 | 118 |
| 28 | Clippers | 60% | 96 | 95 |
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Bulls | 40% | 93 | 80 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 60% | 97 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Suns | 28% | 97 | 99 |
| 5 | Magic | 72% | 105 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 51% | 95 | 95 |
| 15 | Pistons | 49% | 94 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 42% | 96 | 99 | |
| 23 | Bucks | 58% | 99 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Warriors | 56% | 106 | 118 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 44% | 104 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 27% | 91 | 97 |
| 7 | Rockets | 73% | 100 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 55% | 103 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 13% | 90 | 89 |
| 2 | Lakers | 87% | 105 | 99 |
Monday, March 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Hornets | 51% | 93 | 98 | |
| 13 | 76ers | 49% | 92 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 56% | 97 | 98 |
| 26 | Wizards | 44% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 57% | 92 | 107 |
| 14 | Heat | 43% | 90 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Mavericks | 64% | 99 | 87 |
| 29 | Thunder | 36% | 95 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Spurs | 58% | 93 | 106 |
| 28 | Clippers | 42% | 91 | 78 |
Sunday, March 1, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 24% | 86 | 105 |
| 1 | Celtics | 76% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 59% | 106 | 111 |
| 17 | Suns | 41% | 103 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 59% | 95 | 88 |
| 15 | Hawks | 41% | 92 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 59% | 97 | 99 | |
| 20 | Nets | 41% | 94 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 60% | 103 | 94 |
| 24 | Pacers | 40% | 99 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 65% | 98 | 105 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 35% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 40% | 89 | 84 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 93 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Raptors | 32% | 96 | 98 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Jazz | 55% | 106 | 112 |
| 21 | Warriors | 45% | 104 | 104 |
Saturday, February 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Magic | 53% | 95 | 106 |
| 12 | 76ers | 47% | 94 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 35% | 97 | 115 |
| 17 | Heat | 65% | 102 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Thunder | 39% | 92 | 99 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 61% | 96 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 57% | 96 | 102 |
| 16 | Bulls | 43% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 29% | 93 | 93 |
| 21 | Bucks | 71% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 13% | 95 | 89 |
| 6 | Jazz | 87% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 60% | 94 | 100 |
| 26 | Clippers | 40% | 90 | 95 |
Friday, February 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 25% | 91 | 94 |
| 3 | Hornets | 75% | 100 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 28% | 88 | 93 |
| 4 | Magic | 72% | 96 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 63% | 100 | 90 |
| 29 | Wizards | 37% | 96 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 42% | 92 | 83 |
| 17 | Hawks | 58% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 18% | 91 | 99 |
| 1 | Celtics | 82% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 49% | 101 | 108 |
| 23 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 100 | 102 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 40% | 96 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 25% | 93 | 108 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 75% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 42% | 101 | 79 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 58% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 47% | 101 | 113 |
| 19 | Suns | 53% | 102 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 54% | 90 | 97 |
| 15 | Spurs | 46% | 89 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 47% | 99 | 86 |
| 28 | Kings | 53% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bobcats | 45% | 98 | 112 |
| 13 | Warriors | 55% | 99 | 109 |
Thursday, February 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 89 | 74 |
| 7 | Rockets | 51% | 90 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 27% | 101 | 106 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 109 | 132 |
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 28% | 93 | 99 |
| 24 | Pacers | 72% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 62% | 96 | 106 |
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 44% | 97 | 99 |
| 20 | Nets | 56% | 100 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 56% | 104 | 114 |
| 22 | Knicks | 44% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 69% | 104 | 120 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 31% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 27% | 87 | 87 |
| 5 | Hornets | 73% | 95 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 38% | 94 | 96 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 62% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 91 | 84 |
| 17 | Spurs | 53% | 92 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 28% | 95 | 109 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 72% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 55% | 97 | 98 |
| 28 | Kings | 45% | 96 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 100 | 91 |
| 26 | Clippers | 23% | 90 | 93 |
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 12% | 83 | 79 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 88% | 99 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 110 |
| 19 | Raptors | 66% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 48% | 89 | 91 |
| 18 | Heat | 52% | 90 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 56% | 98 | 102 |
| 14 | Bulls | 44% | 96 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 75% | 106 | 107 |
| 27 | Thunder | 25% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 90 | 94 |
| 7 | Rockets | 65% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 41% | 91 | 76 |
| 10 | Spurs | 59% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 39% | 96 | 102 |
| 12 | Suns | 61% | 99 | 112 |
Monday, February 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 47% | 96 | 96 |
| 20 | Nets | 53% | 97 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 39% | 103 | 119 |
| 22 | Knicks | 61% | 107 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 46% | 96 | 114 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 54% | 97 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 31% | 96 | 89 |
| 6 | Jazz | 69% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 71% | 100 | 112 | |
| 29 | Kings | 29% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 60% | 105 | 105 |
| 26 | Clippers | 40% | 102 | 118 |
Sunday, February 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 101 | 91 |
| 24 | Pacers | 48% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 42% | 102 | 100 |
| 23 | Raptors | 58% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 61% | 100 | 128 |
| 13 | Suns | 39% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 33% | 87 | 78 |
| 7 | Rockets | 67% | 93 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 61% | 100 | 117 |
| 22 | Bucks | 39% | 96 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 22% | 88 | 99 |
| 5 | Magic | 78% | 98 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 18% | 92 | 87 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 82% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 72% | 106 | 111 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 28% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 27% | 86 | 78 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 94 | 99 |