Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Sunday, March 1, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 16 | Pistons | 24% | 86 | 105 |
 | 1 | Celtics | 76% | 95 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 3 | Lakers | 60% | 106 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Hornets | 59% | 97 | 99 | |
| 20 | Nets | 41% | 94 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 25 | Timberwolves | 35% | 93 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Raptors | 32% | 96 | 98 |
 | 9 | Mavericks | 68% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Saturday, February 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Magic | 53% | 94 | 106 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 36% | 97 | 115 |
 | 17 | Heat | 64% | 102 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Thunder | 39% | 92 | 99 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 58% | 97 | 102 |
 | 16 | Bulls | 42% | 94 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Bucks | 71% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Jazz | 87% | 109 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Bobcats | 60% | 94 | 100 |
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 26 | Clippers | 40% | 90 | 95 |
Friday, February 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 25% | 91 | 94 |
| 3 | Hornets | 75% | 99 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Pistons | 27% | 88 | 93 |
| 4 | Magic | 73% | 96 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Bulls | 63% | 100 | 90 |
| 29 | Wizards | 37% | 96 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Heat | 41% | 92 | 83 |
| 17 | Hawks | 59% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 18% | 91 | 99 |
| 1 | Celtics | 82% | 103 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 49% | 101 | 108 |
| 23 | Knicks | 51% | 102 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 60% | 100 | 102 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 40% | 96 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 24% | 92 | 108 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 76% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 42% | 101 | 79 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 58% | 103 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Raptors | 46% | 101 | 113 |
| 19 | Suns | 54% | 102 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 54% | 90 | 97 |
| 15 | Spurs | 46% | 89 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 47% | 100 | 86 |
| 28 | Kings | 53% | 101 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Bobcats | 44% | 97 | 112 |
| 13 | Warriors | 56% | 99 | 109 |
Thursday, February 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cavaliers | 49% | 90 | 74 |
| 7 | Rockets | 51% | 91 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 27% | 101 | 106 |
| 2 | Lakers | 73% | 109 | 132 |
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 28% | 93 | 99 |
| 24 | Pacers | 72% | 101 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 62% | 96 | 106 |
| 29 | Wizards | 38% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bulls | 44% | 98 | 99 |
| 20 | Nets | 56% | 100 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 56% | 104 | 114 |
| 22 | Knicks | 44% | 102 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 69% | 104 | 120 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 31% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Pistons | 27% | 86 | 87 |
| 5 | Hornets | 73% | 94 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Bucks | 38% | 94 | 96 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 62% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 47% | 91 | 84 |
| 17 | Spurs | 53% | 92 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Hawks | 28% | 95 | 109 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 72% | 103 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bobcats | 56% | 97 | 98 |
| 28 | Kings | 44% | 95 | 91 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 100 | 91 |
| 26 | Clippers | 23% | 90 | 93 |
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 12% | 83 | 79 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 88% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 110 |
| 19 | Raptors | 66% | 102 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Pistons | 48% | 89 | 91 |
| 18 | Heat | 52% | 90 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Magic | 56% | 98 | 102 |
| 14 | Bulls | 44% | 96 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 75% | 106 | 107 |
| 27 | Thunder | 25% | 98 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 90 | 94 |
| 7 | Rockets | 64% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 41% | 91 | 76 |
| 10 | Spurs | 59% | 94 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Bobcats | 39% | 96 | 102 |
| 12 | Suns | 61% | 99 | 112 |
Monday, February 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 76ers | 47% | 96 | 96 |
| 20 | Nets | 53% | 97 | 98 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 39% | 103 | 119 |
| 22 | Knicks | 61% | 107 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 45% | 96 | 114 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 55% | 97 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 31% | 96 | 89 |
| 6 | Jazz | 69% | 103 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 71% | 101 | 112 | |
| 29 | Kings | 29% | 93 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Warriors | 60% | 105 | 105 |
| 26 | Clippers | 40% | 102 | 118 |
Sunday, February 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 101 | 91 |
| 24 | Pacers | 48% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Knicks | 40% | 101 | 100 |
| 23 | Raptors | 60% | 104 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 62% | 100 | 128 |
| 13 | Suns | 38% | 96 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Bobcats | 33% | 87 | 78 |
| 7 | Rockets | 67% | 92 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 61% | 100 | 117 |
| 22 | Bucks | 39% | 96 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 22% | 88 | 99 |
| 5 | Magic | 78% | 98 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 18% | 92 | 87 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 82% | 104 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 72% | 106 | 111 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 28% | 99 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pistons | 27% | 86 | 78 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 94 | 99 |
Saturday, February 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 76ers | 45% | 91 | 91 |
| 19 | Heat | 55% | 92 | 97 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spurs | 69% | 96 | 98 |
| 26 | Wizards | 31% | 90 | 67 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 21% | 94 | 95 |
| 11 | Mavericks | 79% | 105 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 37% | 94 | 88 | |
| 7 | Jazz | 63% | 98 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 26% | 100 | 120 |
| 18 | Warriors | 74% | 109 | 133 |
Friday, February 20, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Magic | 51% | 93 | 92 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 49% | 92 | 80 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 43% | 101 | 97 |
| 22 | Knicks | 57% | 104 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kings | 44% | 96 | 115 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 56% | 98 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 48% | 101 | 112 |
| 25 | Timberwolves | 52% | 102 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 30% | 94 | 107 |
| 20 | Nets | 70% | 101 | 96 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 53% | 99 | 99 |
| 13 | Bulls | 47% | 98 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 35% | 92 | 86 |
| 5 | Rockets | 65% | 97 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Cavaliers | 64% | 95 | 111 |
| 21 | Bucks | 36% | 90 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Thunder | 28% | 97 | 118 |
| 15 | Suns | 72% | 104 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 37% | 92 | 98 |
| 10 | Trail Blazers | 63% | 97 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hornets | 33% | 95 | 111 | |
| 2 | Lakers | 67% | 100 | 115 |
Thursday, February 19, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spurs | 44% | 89 | 83 |
| 11 | Pistons | 56% | 90 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 57% | 98 | 85 |
| 7 | Jazz | 43% | 95 | 90 |
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 37% | 95 | 94 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 63% | 99 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Cavaliers | 69% | 98 | 93 |
| 21 | Raptors | 31% | 91 | 76 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 28% | 90 | 111 |
| 19 | Heat | 72% | 98 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Bulls | 52% | 96 | 113 |
| 23 | Bucks | 48% | 95 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 47% | 92 | 85 |
| 8 | Hornets | 53% | 93 | 117 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 55% | 97 | 101 |
| 15 | 76ers | 45% | 96 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nets | 28% | 92 | 98 | |
| 11 | Mavericks | 72% | 100 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 16% | 87 | 90 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 84% | 100 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Hawks | 56% | 99 | 105 |
| 28 | Kings | 44% | 97 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lakers | 53% | 107 | 129 |
| 17 | Warriors | 47% | 106 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 63% | 103 | 142 |
| 30 | Clippers | 37% | 99 | 119 |
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 47% | 99 | 91 |
| 20 | Pacers | 53% | 100 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 27% | 88 | 102 |
| 4 | Magic | 73% | 96 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Timberwolves | 53% | 99 | 103 |
| 29 | Wizards | 47% | 98 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bucks | 33% | 89 | 92 |
| 11 | Pistons | 67% | 95 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spurs | 56% | 101 | 107 |
| 22 | Knicks | 44% | 99 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hornets | 60% | 95 | 100 | |
| 26 | Thunder | 40% | 92 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 25% | 90 | 88 | |
| 5 | Rockets | 75% | 99 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Clippers | 24% | 98 | 100 |
| 12 | Suns | 76% | 107 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Grizzlies | 19% | 90 | 99 |
| 7 | Jazz | 81% | 101 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 28% | 96 | 83 |
| 3 | Lakers | 72% | 104 | 96 |