Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Friday, April 3, 2009

Final			Win Prob.	pScore
	15	Heat	43%	90	97
	13	Bobcats	57%	92	92

	ORTG	#Poss	Pace
MIA	110.2	88	88.7
CHA	103.4	89	88.3

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

-10

CHA

+10

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.13 56.4%

CHA

1.10 54.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / WinProb
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	CHA
Q4 - 0:00.0	CHA		97 100%	92 0%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MIA	Cook Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	97 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MIA	Cook Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	96 99.9%	92 0.1%
Q4 - 0:05.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	95 99.5%	92 0.5%
Q4 - 0:05.0	CHA	MISS Felton 27' 3PT Jump Shot	95 99.3%	92 0.7%
Q4 - 0:12.0	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (27 PTS)	95 92.9%	92 7.1%
Q4 - 0:12.0	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	94 91.4%	92 8.6%
Q4 - 0:16.0	CHA	Diaw 25' 3PT Jump Shot (13 PTS) (Augustin 1 AST)	94 94.6%	92 5.4%
Q4 - 0:19.0	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (26 PTS)	94 99.1%	89 0.9%
Q4 - 0:19.0	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 2 (25 PTS)	93 98.9%	89 1.1%
Q4 - 0:22.0	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	92 97.0%	89 3.0%
Q4 - 0:24.0	CHA	MISS Felton Layup	92 95.4%	89 4.6%
Q4 - 0:40.0	MIA	Magloire Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	92 86.7%	89 13.3%
Q4 - 0:40.0	MIA	MISS Magloire Free Throw 1 of 2	91 83.1%	89 16.9%
Q4 - 1:00	CHA	Okafor Layup (13 PTS) (Felton 10 AST)	91 83.8%	89 16.2%
Q4 - 1:06	MIA	O'Neal Free Throw 2 of 2 (13 PTS)	91 89.7%	87 10.3%
Q4 - 1:06	MIA	MISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 2	90 88.5%	87 11.5%
Q4 - 1:06	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	90 90.1%	87 9.9%
Q4 - 1:06	CHA	MISS Augustin Layup	90 88.2%	87 11.8%
Q4 - 1:23	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:3 Def:10)	90 80.5%	87 19.5%
Q4 - 1:25	CHA	MISS Diaw 24' 3PT Jump Shot	90 86.3%	87 13.7%
Q4 - 1:45	MIA	Beasley 17' Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Wade 10 AST)	90 77.2%	87 22.8%
Q4 - 2:05	CHA	Felton Layup (16 PTS) (Diaw 7 AST)	88 70.0%	87 30.0%
Q4 - 2:16	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	88 76.4%	85 23.6%
Q4 - 2:18	MIA	MISS O'Neal 14' Jump Shot	88 80.0%	85 20.0%
Q4 - 2:39	CHA	Felton 17' Jump Shot (14 PTS)	88 86.8%	85 13.2%
Q4 - 3:05	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (24 PTS)	88 88.2%	83 11.8%
Q4 - 3:05	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	87 87.2%	83 12.8%
Q4 - 3:15	CHA	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T17)	87 89.5%	83 10.5%
Q4 - 3:37	MIA	Wade Layup (23 PTS)	87 78.3%	83 21.7%
Q4 - 3:42	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	85 72.0%	83 28.0%
Q4 - 3:43	CHA	MISS Felton 17' Jump Shot	85 69.4%	83 30.6%
Q4 - 4:04	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	85 63.3%	83 36.7%
Q4 - 4:05	MIA	MISS Wade 16' Jump Shot	85 66.2%	83 33.8%
Q4 - 4:21	CHA	Radmanovic Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T16)	85 72.5%	83 27.5%
Q4 - 4:29	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:10)	85 63.4%	83 36.6%
Q4 - 4:30	MIA	MISS Wade 19' Jump Shot	85 66.4%	83 33.6%
Q4 - 4:47	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	85 72.7%	83 27.3%
Q4 - 4:49	CHA	MISS Radmanovic 24' 3PT Jump Shot	85 70.0%	83 30.0%
Q4 - 5:05	MIA	Wade 19' Jump Shot (21 PTS)	85 61.1%	83 38.9%
Q4 - 5:24	CHA	Augustin 22' Jump Shot (9 PTS)	83 53.2%	83 46.8%
Q4 - 5:38	MIA	Cook 26' 3PT Jump Shot (14 PTS) (Wade 9 AST)	83 61.2%	81 38.8%
Q4 - 5:59	CHA	Felton Driving Reverse Layup (12 PTS)	80 44.8%	81 55.2%
Q4 - 6:18	MIA	Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Chalmers 5 AST)	80 52.1%	79 47.9%
Q4 - 6:25	CHA	Okafor Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T15)	77 37.5%	79 62.5%
Q4 - 6:40	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (19 PTS)	77 30.4%	79 69.6%
Q4 - 6:40	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	76 29.1%	79 70.9%
Q4 - 6:45	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:6)	76 30.7%	79 69.3%
Q4 - 6:46	CHA	MISS Okafor 10' Jump Shot	76 28.6%	79 71.4%
Q4 - 7:00	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 2 of 2 (9 PTS)	76 24.3%	79 75.7%
Q4 - 7:00	MIA	Chalmers Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	75 23.2%	79 76.8%
Q4 - 7:19	CHA	Augustin Driving Layup (7 PTS)	74 21.0%	79 79.0%
Q4 - 7:46	MIA	Magloire Dunk (2 PTS) (Wade 8 AST)	74 25.6%	77 74.4%
Q4 - 7:57	MIA	Heat Rebound	72 20.9%	77 79.1%
Q4 - 8:04	CHA	MISS Radmanovic 19' Jump Shot	72 21.0%	77 79.0%
Q4 - 8:20	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:4 Def:3)	72 18.2%	77 81.8%
Q4 - 8:22	MIA	MISS Cook 14' Jump Shot	72 19.4%	77 80.6%
Q4 - 8:45	CHA	Diop Layup (8 PTS) (Diaw 6 AST)	72 22.2%	77 77.8%
Q4 - 8:57	MIA	Jones Illegal Screen Turnover (P1.T10)	72 27.1%	75 72.9%
Q4 - 9:11	CHA	Wallace Foul Turnover (P2.T14)	72 33.4%	75 66.6%
Q4 - 9:19	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:4 Def:2)	72 28.5%	75 71.5%
Q4 - 9:21	MIA	MISS Jones 20' Jump Shot	72 29.9%	75 70.1%
Q4 - 9:44	CHA	Diaw Driving Layup (10 PTS)	72 33.4%	75 66.6%
Q4 - 10:02	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:4 Def:1)	72 39.3%	73 60.7%
Q4 - 10:04	CHA	MISS Radmanovic 19' Jump Shot	72 43.1%	73 56.9%
Q4 - 10:17	CHA	Augustin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	72 39.3%	73 60.7%
Q4 - 10:18	MIA	MISS Cook 19' Jump Shot	72 40.9%	73 59.1%
Q4 - 10:47	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:3 Def:1)	72 44.7%	73 55.3%
Q4 - 10:47	CHA	Diop Layup (6 PTS)	72 44.7%	73 55.3%
Q4 - 10:49	CHA	MISS Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	72 54.4%	71 45.6%
Q4 - 11:07	MIA	Beasley 16' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Chalmers 4 AST)	72 50.2%	71 49.8%
Q4 - 11:19	CHA	Diaw Foul Turnover (P3.T13)	70 44.5%	71 55.5%
Q4 - 11:45	MIA	Cook 26' 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Beasley 1 AST)	70 39.6%	71 60.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHA		67 29.6%	71 70.4%
Q3 - 0:00.0	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:9)	67 25.6%	71 74.4%
Q3 - 0:01.0	MIA	Diaw BLOCK (1 BLK)	67 27.6%	71 72.4%
Q3 - 0:15.0	CHA	Wallace 24' 3PT Jump Shot (21 PTS) (Diaw 5 AST)	67 30.1%	71 69.9%
Q3 - 0:30.0	MIA	Beasley Driving Layup (10 PTS)	67 39.9%	68 60.1%
Q3 - 0:48.0	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (18 PTS)	65 34.5%	68 65.5%
Q3 - 0:48.0	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (17 PTS)	65 35.5%	67 64.5%
Q3 - 0:52.0	MIA	Martin STEAL (1 STL)	65 39.9%	66 60.1%
Q3 - 1:11	CHA	Okafor Dunk (11 PTS) (Felton 9 AST)	65 44.0%	66 56.0%
Q3 - 1:25	MIA	Beasley 16' Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wade 7 AST)	65 49.3%	64 50.7%
Q3 - 1:45	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 2 of 2 (16 PTS)	63 44.0%	64 56.0%
Q3 - 1:45	CHA	Wallace Free Throw 1 of 2 (15 PTS)	63 45.0%	63 55.0%
Q3 - 2:06	MIA	Jones 3PT Jump Shot (8 PTS) (Wade 6 AST)	63 48.6%	62 51.4%
Q3 - 2:26	CHA	Wallace Layup (14 PTS)	60 39.4%	62 60.6%
Q3 - 2:45	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:8)	60 44.0%	60 56.0%
Q3 - 2:46	MIA	MISS Wade 17' Jump Shot	60 45.4%	60 54.6%
Q3 - 2:53	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:5)	60 48.6%	60 51.4%
Q3 - 2:54	CHA	MISS Diaw Dunk	60 47.2%	60 52.8%
Q3 - 3:20	MIA	Wade 19' Jump Shot (18 PTS)	60 43.8%	60 56.2%
Q3 - 3:39	CHA	Martin Foul Turnover (P1.T12)	58 39.7%	60 60.3%
Q3 - 3:47	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:8)	58 35.2%	60 64.8%
Q3 - 3:51	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (2 BLK)	58 36.5%	60 63.5%
Q3 - 4:14	CHA	Okafor 11' Jump Shot (9 PTS) (Diaw 4 AST)	58 39.9%	60 60.1%
Q3 - 4:21	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:7)	58 43.4%	58 56.6%
Q3 - 4:23	MIA	Wallace BLOCK (1 BLK)	58 44.9%	58 55.1%
Q3 - 4:39	CHA	Felton Driving Reverse Layup (10 PTS)	58 48.5%	58 51.5%
Q3 - 4:58	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:6)	58 52.1%	56 47.9%
Q3 - 4:59	MIA	MISS Jones 20' Jump Shot	58 53.7%	56 46.3%
Q3 - 5:19	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	58 56.1%	56 43.9%
Q3 - 5:20	CHA	MISS Martin Layup	58 54.7%	56 45.3%
Q3 - 5:31	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:7)	58 51.4%	56 48.6%
Q3 - 5:32	MIA	MISS O'Neal 11' Jump Shot	58 52.9%	56 47.1%
Q3 - 5:54	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	58 56.2%	56 43.8%
Q3 - 5:56	CHA	MISS Martin 25' 3PT Jump Shot	58 54.7%	56 45.3%
Q3 - 6:13	CHA	BOBCATS Rebound	58 51.1%	56 48.9%
Q3 - 6:13	MIA	MISS Wade 3PT Jump Shot	58 52.5%	56 47.5%
Q3 - 6:37	CHA	Diaw 5' Hook Shot (8 PTS)	58 55.5%	56 44.5%
Q3 - 6:58	MIA	Chalmers Layup (7 PTS) (Wade 5 AST)	58 59.1%	54 40.9%
Q3 - 7:01	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	56 54.4%	54 45.6%
Q3 - 7:04	CHA	MISS Wallace 3PT Jump Shot	56 53.2%	54 46.8%
Q3 - 7:14	CHA	BOBCATS Rebound	56 50.5%	54 49.5%
Q3 - 7:14	CHA	MISS Wallace Layup	56 53.3%	54 46.7%
Q3 - 7:30	MIA	Jones 21' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Chalmers 3 AST)	56 50.5%	54 49.5%
Q3 - 7:48	CHA	Felton 20' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	54 46.8%	54 53.2%
Q3 - 8:08	CHA	Martin REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	54 50.1%	52 49.9%
Q3 - 8:09	MIA	MISS Wade 19' Jump Shot	54 51.3%	52 48.7%
Q3 - 8:23	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	54 54.1%	52 45.9%
Q3 - 8:24	CHA	MISS Felton 12' Jump Shot	54 52.9%	52 47.1%
Q3 - 8:41	MIA	O'Neal 19' Jump Shot (12 PTS) (Jones 2 AST)	54 50.1%	52 49.9%
Q3 - 9:08	CHA	Wallace Driving Layup (12 PTS)	52 46.4%	52 53.6%
Q3 - 9:26	MIA	Wade Free Throw 1 of 1 (16 PTS)	52 50.0%	50 50.0%
Q3 - 9:37	CHA	Felton Bad Pass Turnover (P3.T11)	49 42.7%	50 57.3%
Q3 - 9:59	MIA	Chalmers 19' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Wade 4 AST)	49 39.1%	50 60.9%
Q3 - 10:20	CHA	Wallace Driving Layup (10 PTS)	47 35.8%	50 64.2%
Q3 - 10:33	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 2 of 2 (2 PTS)	47 39.1%	48 60.9%
Q3 - 10:33	MIA	Haslem Free Throw 1 of 2 (1 PTS)	46 38.4%	48 61.6%
Q3 - 10:36	MIA	Chalmers REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	45 35.8%	48 64.2%
Q3 - 10:37	CHA	MISS Bell 25' 3PT Jump Shot	45 34.8%	48 65.2%
Q3 - 10:46	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:5)	45 32.5%	48 67.5%
Q3 - 10:48	MIA	MISS Wade 18' Jump Shot	45 33.5%	48 66.5%
Q3 - 11:12	CHA	Bell 25' 3PT Jump Shot (11 PTS) (Felton 8 AST)	45 36.1%	48 63.9%
Q3 - 11:18	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:6)	45 42.5%	45 57.5%
Q3 - 11:19	MIA	MISS Haslem 15' Jump Shot	45 43.6%	45 56.4%
Q3 - 11:32	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:2 Def:2)	45 46.1%	45 53.9%
Q3 - 11:34	CHA	MISS Okafor 15' Jump Shot	45 45.0%	45 55.0%
Q2 - 0:00.0	CHA		45 42.5%	45 57.5%
Q2 - 0:00.0	MIA	Chalmers 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wade 3 AST)	45 42.5%	45 57.5%
Q2 - 0:06.0	CHA	Diaw Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T10)	42 35.9%	45 64.1%
Q2 - 0:28.0	MIA	Wade 8' Jump Shot (13 PTS)	42 33.6%	45 66.4%
Q2 - 0:38.0	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:4)	40 30.0%	45 70.0%
Q2 - 0:40.0	CHA	MISS Bell Free Throw 2 of 2	40 29.7%	45 70.3%
Q2 - 0:40.0	CHA	Bell Free Throw 1 of 2 (8 PTS)	40 27.6%	45 72.4%
Q2 - 0:47.0	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (11 PTS)	40 30.6%	44 69.4%
Q2 - 1:00	CHA	Radmanovic Free Throw 2 of 2 (1 PTS)	38 27.2%	44 72.8%
Q2 - 1:00	CHA	MISS Radmanovic Free Throw 1 of 2	38 27.8%	43 72.2%
Q2 - 1:17	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:5)	38 28.2%	43 71.8%
Q2 - 1:18	MIA	MISS Chalmers Layup	38 28.8%	43 71.2%
Q2 - 1:25	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	38 30.2%	43 69.8%
Q2 - 1:27	CHA	MISS Radmanovic Layup	38 29.6%	43 70.4%
Q2 - 1:37	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:4)	38 28.2%	43 71.8%
Q2 - 1:38	MIA	MISS Chalmers 25' 3PT Jump Shot	38 28.8%	43 71.2%
Q2 - 1:54	MIA	Heat Rebound	38 30.2%	43 69.8%
Q2 - 1:54	MIA	MISS Cook 27' 3PT Jump Shot	38 28.8%	43 71.2%
Q2 - 2:00	CHA	Bell Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T9)	38 30.2%	43 69.8%
Q2 - 2:15	MIA	Wade Layup (9 PTS)	38 28.0%	43 72.0%
Q2 - 2:28	CHA	Okafor Free Throw 2 of 2 (7 PTS)	36 25.6%	43 74.4%
Q2 - 2:28	CHA	MISS Okafor Free Throw 1 of 2	36 26.4%	42 73.6%
Q2 - 2:39	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:4)	36 25.5%	42 74.5%
Q2 - 2:40	MIA	Heat Rebound	36 28.1%	42 71.9%
Q2 - 2:40	MIA	MISS O'Neal Free Throw 2 of 2	36 25.9%	42 74.1%
Q2 - 2:40	MIA	MISS O'Neal Free Throw 1 of 2	36 27.5%	42 72.5%
Q2 - 2:54	CHA	Augustin 25' 3PT Jump Shot (5 PTS)	36 28.1%	42 71.9%
Q2 - 3:09	MIA	O'Neal 7' Jump Shot (10 PTS) (Chalmers 1 AST)	36 33.4%	39 66.6%
Q2 - 3:25	MIA	Heat Rebound	34 31.1%	39 68.9%
Q2 - 3:25	CHA	MISS Okafor 18' Jump Shot	34 30.2%	39 69.8%
Q2 - 3:29	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:2 Def:3)	34 28.1%	39 71.9%
Q2 - 3:30	CHA	MISS Bell 19' Jump Shot	34 30.2%	39 69.8%
Q2 - 3:56	MIA	O'Neal 8' Jump Shot (8 PTS)	34 28.1%	39 71.9%
Q2 - 4:15	CHA	Augustin Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T8)	32 26.1%	39 73.9%
Q2 - 4:26	CHA	Radmanovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	32 23.7%	39 76.3%
Q2 - 4:27	MIA	MISS Beasley 16' Jump Shot	32 24.4%	39 75.6%
Q2 - 4:44	CHA	Augustin Lost Ball Turnover (P1.T7)	32 26.1%	39 73.9%
Q2 - 5:05	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	32 24.4%	39 75.6%
Q2 - 5:06	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	32 24.4%	39 75.6%
Q2 - 5:06	CHA	MISS Diop Tip Shot	32 25.9%	39 74.1%
Q2 - 5:08	CHA	MISS Augustin 27' 3PT Jump Shot	32 25.9%	39 74.1%
Q2 - 5:31	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	32 24.3%	39 75.7%
Q2 - 5:31	MIA	Cook Tip Shot (5 PTS)	32 24.3%	39 75.7%
Q2 - 5:33	MIA	MISS Chalmers Layup	30 20.8%	39 79.2%
Q2 - 5:37	CHA	Diop Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T6)	30 22.1%	39 77.9%
Q2 - 5:45	CHA	Diaw REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	30 20.2%	39 79.8%
Q2 - 5:46	CHA	MISS Diop Layup	30 21.5%	39 78.5%
Q2 - 5:53	CHA	Bell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	30 20.2%	39 79.8%
Q2 - 5:56	MIA	MISS O'Neal 6' Hook Shot	30 20.8%	39 79.2%
Q2 - 6:12	CHA	Diop Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T5)	30 22.7%	39 77.3%
Q2 - 6:33	MIA	Magloire Foul Turnover (P1.T8)	30 20.4%	39 79.6%
Q2 - 6:40	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 22.7%	39 77.3%
Q2 - 6:41	CHA	MISS Felton 18' Jump Shot	30 22.0%	39 78.0%
Q2 - 6:56	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 20.4%	39 79.6%
Q2 - 6:57	MIA	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	30 21.1%	39 78.9%
Q2 - 7:14	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	30 22.8%	39 77.2%
Q2 - 7:15	CHA	MISS Radmanovic 25' 3PT Jump Shot	30 22.2%	39 77.8%
Q2 - 7:39	MIA	Quinn Driving Layup (5 PTS)	30 20.8%	39 79.2%
Q2 - 7:52	CHA	Diop 5' Hook Shot (4 PTS) (Felton 7 AST)	28 19.1%	39 80.9%
Q2 - 8:12	MIA	Beasley 20' Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Quinn 2 AST)	28 21.4%	37 78.6%
Q2 - 8:29	CHA	Diop 15' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Radmanovic 1 AST)	26 19.6%	37 80.4%
Q2 - 8:49	CHA	Radmanovic REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	26 21.4%	35 78.6%
Q2 - 8:51	MIA	MISS Beasley Free Throw 1 of 1	26 21.6%	35 78.4%
Q2 - 9:11	CHA	Felton 3PT Jump Shot (6 PTS) (Diop 2 AST)	24 19.8%	35 80.2%
Q2 - 9:24	MIA	Augustin STEAL (1 STL)	24 23.4%	32 76.6%
Q2 - 9:37	CHA	Wallace Layup (8 PTS) (Diop 1 AST)	24 25.4%	32 74.6%
Q2 - 9:53	MIA	Jones 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Quinn 1 AST)	24 27.5%	30 72.5%
Q2 - 10:09	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	21 23.9%	30 76.1%
Q2 - 10:14	CHA	MISS Radmanovic 13' Jump Shot	21 23.3%	30 76.7%
Q2 - 10:34	MIA	Quinn 26' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Jones 1 AST)	21 21.9%	30 78.1%
Q2 - 10:52	CHA	Augustin Driving Layup (2 PTS)	18 18.6%	30 81.4%
Q2 - 11:17	MIA	Beasley Driving Layup (2 PTS)	18 20.6%	28 79.4%
Q2 - 11:36	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	16 19.0%	28 81.0%
Q2 - 11:37	CHA	MISS Felton Layup	16 18.5%	28 81.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA		16 17.5%	28 82.5%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA	Heat Rebound	16 19.0%	28 81.0%
Q1 - 0:00.0	MIA	MISS Wade 50' 3PT Jump Shot	16 17.9%	28 82.1%
Q1 - 0:02.0	MIA	Magloire REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 19.3%	28 80.7%
Q1 - 0:03.0	CHA	MISS Wallace Layup	16 19.0%	28 81.0%
Q1 - 0:09.0	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:3)	16 18.2%	28 81.8%
Q1 - 0:10.0	MIA	MISS Magloire 7' Hook Shot	16 18.5%	28 81.5%
Q1 - 0:30.0	CHA	Diaw Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T4)	16 19.3%	28 80.7%
Q1 - 0:47.0	CHA	Diop REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 18.2%	28 81.8%
Q1 - 0:48.0	MIA	MISS Cook 19' Jump Shot	16 18.5%	28 81.5%
Q1 - 0:59.0	MIA	Beasley REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 19.3%	28 80.7%
Q1 - 1:01	CHA	MISS Diaw 8' Hook Shot	16 19.6%	28 80.4%
Q1 - 1:13	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:3)	16 18.9%	28 81.1%
Q1 - 1:14	MIA	MISS Wade 15' Jump Shot	16 19.2%	28 80.8%
Q1 - 1:34	CHA	Diaw Driving Layup (6 PTS) (Felton 6 AST)	16 19.9%	28 80.1%
Q1 - 1:40	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:2)	16 22.0%	26 78.0%
Q1 - 1:41	MIA	MISS Jones 3PT Jump Shot	16 22.3%	26 77.7%
Q1 - 1:54	MIA	Wade REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	16 23.1%	26 76.9%
Q1 - 1:55	CHA	MISS Diaw 26' 3PT Jump Shot	16 22.7%	26 77.3%
Q1 - 2:14	MIA	Wade Driving Layup (7 PTS)	16 22.4%	26 77.6%
Q1 - 2:20	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	14 20.5%	26 79.5%
Q1 - 2:22	CHA	MISS Bell 23' Jump Shot	14 20.1%	26 79.9%
Q1 - 2:45	MIA	Cook 24' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Wade 2 AST)	14 19.3%	26 80.7%
Q1 - 3:03	CHA	Diaw Driving Layup (4 PTS) (Bell 1 AST)	11 16.7%	26 83.3%
Q1 - 3:18	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:1)	11 18.0%	24 82.0%
Q1 - 3:20	MIA	MISS Jones 12' Jump Shot	11 18.4%	24 81.6%
Q1 - 3:44	CHA	Wallace Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T3)	11 19.3%	24 80.7%
Q1 - 4:00	MIA	Wade 18' Jump Shot (5 PTS)	11 18.0%	24 82.0%
Q1 - 4:16	MIA	Cook REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	9 17.1%	24 82.9%
Q1 - 4:17	CHA	MISS Bell 26' 3PT Jump Shot	9 16.7%	24 83.3%
Q1 - 4:34	MIA	Wade Free Throw 2 of 2 (3 PTS)	9 15.8%	24 84.2%
Q1 - 4:34	MIA	MISS Wade Free Throw 1 of 2	8 15.5%	24 84.5%
Q1 - 4:46	MIA	Jones REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	8 15.8%	24 84.2%
Q1 - 4:49	CHA	MISS Okafor Free Throw 1 of 1	8 15.6%	24 84.4%
Q1 - 4:52	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	8 17.0%	22 83.0%
Q1 - 4:53	MIA	MISS O'Neal 10' Turnaround Jump Shot	8 17.4%	22 82.6%
Q1 - 5:13	CHA	Felton Layup (3 PTS) (Wallace 1 AST)	8 18.8%	22 81.2%
Q1 - 5:30	MIA	O'Neal 10' Fadeaway Jumper (6 PTS)	8 20.0%	20 80.0%
Q1 - 5:45	MIA	Haslem REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 18.8%	20 81.2%
Q1 - 5:46	CHA	MISS Okafor 16' Jump Shot	6 18.3%	20 81.7%
Q1 - 6:00	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:2)	6 17.3%	20 82.7%
Q1 - 6:01	MIA	MISS Haslem 15' Jump Shot	6 18.0%	20 82.0%
Q1 - 6:24	CHA	Wallace Driving Layup (6 PTS)	6 18.9%	20 81.1%
Q1 - 6:28	CHA	Wallace REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	6 20.2%	18 79.8%
Q1 - 6:29	MIA	MISS Moon 25' 3PT Jump Shot	6 20.6%	18 79.4%
Q1 - 6:48	CHA	Bell 11' Pullup Bank Shot (7 PTS) (Diaw 3 AST)	6 21.7%	18 78.3%
Q1 - 7:00	MIA	Bell STEAL (1 STL)	6 23.1%	16 76.9%
Q1 - 7:07	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:2 Def:1)	6 24.7%	16 75.3%
Q1 - 7:10	CHA	MISS Wallace Layup	6 24.2%	16 75.8%
Q1 - 7:20	MIA	Chalmers Traveling Turnover (P3.T5)	6 23.0%	16 77.0%
Q1 - 7:24	CHA	Okafor REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	6 24.7%	16 75.3%
Q1 - 7:24	CHA	Okafor 10' Jump Bank Shot (4 PTS)	6 24.7%	16 75.3%
Q1 - 7:26	CHA	MISS Felton 19' Jump Shot	6 27.4%	14 72.6%
Q1 - 7:44	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:2 Def:0)	6 26.1%	14 73.9%
Q1 - 7:44	MIA	O'Neal Dunk (4 PTS)	6 26.1%	14 73.9%
Q1 - 7:46	MIA	MISS Chalmers Layup	4 23.5%	14 76.5%
Q1 - 8:00	MIA	Heat Rebound	4 24.7%	14 75.3%
Q1 - 8:01	MIA	Okafor BLOCK (1 BLK)	4 23.6%	14 76.4%
Q1 - 8:13	CHA	Bell 22' Jump Shot (5 PTS) (Felton 4 AST)	4 24.6%	14 75.4%
Q1 - 8:26	MIA	O'Neal Foul Turnover (P2.T4)	4 26.2%	12 73.8%
Q1 - 8:36	CHA	Bell 25' 3PT Jump Shot (3 PTS) (Felton 3 AST)	4 27.9%	12 72.1%
Q1 - 8:54	MIA	Wade Dunk (2 PTS)	4 31.4%	9 68.6%
Q1 - 8:58	CHA	Felton Bad Pass Turnover (P2.T2)	2 29.6%	9 70.4%
Q1 - 9:05	CHA	Felton Free Throw Technical (1 PTS)	2 28.9%	9 71.1%
Q1 - 9:16	MIA	O'Neal Dunk (2 PTS) (Wade 1 AST)	2 30.5%	8 69.5%
Q1 - 9:38	CHA	Wallace Layup (4 PTS) (Felton 2 AST)	0 28.6%	8 71.4%
Q1 - 9:43	MIA	Felton STEAL (2 STL)	0 30.5%	6 69.5%
Q1 - 9:49	CHA	Felton Bad Pass Turnover (P1.T1)	0 32.0%	6 68.0%
Q1 - 9:58	CHA	Bell REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 30.4%	6 69.6%
Q1 - 9:59	MIA	O'Neal REBOUND (Off:1 Def:0)	0 32.0%	6 68.0%
Q1 - 9:59	MIA	MISS O'Neal Tip Shot	0 30.9%	6 69.1%
Q1 - 10:00	MIA	MISS Wade Layup	0 30.9%	6 69.1%
Q1 - 10:21	CHA	Diaw 16' Jump Shot (2 PTS) (Felton 1 AST)	0 32.8%	6 67.2%
Q1 - 10:30	MIA	O'Neal Traveling Turnover (P1.T2)	0 34.4%	4 65.6%
Q1 - 10:52	CHA	Wallace Driving Layup (2 PTS) (Diaw 2 AST)	0 36.1%	4 63.9%
Q1 - 11:03	MIA	Felton STEAL (1 STL)	0 37.9%	2 62.1%
Q1 - 11:22	CHA	Okafor Dunk (2 PTS) (Diaw 1 AST)	0 39.6%	2 60.4%
Q1 - 11:40	CHA	Felton REBOUND (Off:0 Def:1)	0 41.1%	0 58.9%
Q1 - 11:42	MIA	MISS O'Neal 18' Jump Shot	0 41.6%	0 58.4%
Q1 - 12:00	CHA	Jump Ball Okafor vs. O'Neal: Tip to Haslem	0 42.8%	0 57.2%

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.13 56.4%

CHA

1.10 54.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

61%

CHA

68%

Midrange

MIA

42%

CHA

42%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

12.0

53%

80%

CHA

9.0

33%

50%

Free Throws

MIA

63%

CHA

67%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
D. Wade	27	52%	13.5 / 26
D. Cook	16	80%	8.0 / 10
M. Beasley	14	78%	7.0 / 9
J. O'Neal	13	46%	6.5 / 14
M. Chalmers	9	50%	4.5 / 9
J. Jones	8	50%	4.0 / 8
C. Quinn	5	125%	2.5 / 2
J. Magloire	3	50%	1.5 / 3
U. Haslem	2	33%	1.0 / 3
J. Moon	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Bobcats

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
G. Wallace	21	75%	10.5 / 14
R. Felton	16	57%	8.0 / 14
B. Diaw	13	59%	6.5 / 11
E. Okafor	13	59%	6.5 / 11
R. Bell	11	61%	5.5 / 9
D. Augustin	9	64%	4.5 / 7
D. Diop	8	67%	4.0 / 6
V. Radmanovic	1	7%	0.5 / 7
C. Martin	0	-	0.0 / 2

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

-10

CHA

+10

-17

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.13 56.4%

CHA

1.10 54.8%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	107.6 104.9	MIA 110.2 +6.9 CHA 103.4
Pace	90.2 88.2	MIA 88.7 +0.4 CHA 88.3
Avg. Poss. Time	16.3 16.5	MIA 16.2 +0.1 CHA 16.3
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	50.0% 49.4%	MIA 55.4% +0.1% CHA 55.3%
TO %	13.1% 16.7%	MIA 10.6% +6.7% CHA 17.3%
ORB %	24.6% 27.8%	MIA 8.6% CHA 23.5% +14.9%
FTrt	28.2 31.2	MIA 32.4 +16.6 CHA 15.8
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	55.1% 60.7%	MIA 54.1% CHA 59.0% +4.9%
STL %	8.7% 7.9%	MIA 13.6% +8.0% CHA 5.6%
BLK %	9.2% 8.2%	MIA 5.2% CHA 6.8% +1.6%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	52.6% 52.0%	MIA 56.4% +1.6% CHA 54.8%
Rim FG%	59.5% 55.2%	MIA 60.9% CHA 67.6% +6.7%
Mid FG%	41.8% 40.4%	MIA 41.7% CHA 41.7%
3P %	35.7% 36.6%	MIA 53.3% +20.0% CHA 33.3%
FT %	75.4% 74.0%	MIA 62.5% CHA 66.7% +4.2%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	30.3% 40.0%	MIA 31.1% CHA 44.7% +13.7%
Mid Att. %	45.2% 38.8%	MIA 48.6% CHA 31.6% +17.1%
3P Att. %	24.5% 21.3%	MIA 20.3% CHA 23.7% +3.4%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	CHA
Possessions	88	89
Possession Minutes	23.8	24.2
Points	97	92
Rebounds	29	40
Assists	20	23
Steals	12	5
Blocks	3	4
Turnovers (Team)	10 (0)	17 (0)
Fouls
Off. Rebounds (Team)	3 (4)	8 (2)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	26 (3)	32 (1)
Field Goals	37-74	39-76
At-the-Rim FG	14-23	23-34
Midrange FG	15-36	10-24
2-Point FG	29-59	33-58
3-Point FG	8-15	6-18
Free Throws	15-24	8-12
Fast Break Pts
2nd Chance Pts
Points in Paint
Pts off Turnovers
Bench Points
Biggest Lead

BOXSCORE

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	38.9	27	52%	4	10	3	0	2	3	0	4	7-11	64%	10-19	53%	0-2	0%
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	35.1	9	50%	3	5	4	0	3	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Jermaine O'Neal C · 6'11" 255 · 30	24.5	13	46%	6	0	1	1	2	3	2	4	1-4	25%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	22.4	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jamario Moon F · 6'8" 205 · 29	7.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	33.6	16	80%	7	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	4-5	80%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	27.2	14	78%	4	1	2	1	0	1	0	4	0-1	0%	7-9	78%	0-0	-
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 28	23.8	8	50%	1	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	19.2	3	50%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 26	5.5	5	125%	0	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 27	2.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27
Luther Head #13 · G · 6'3" 185 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dorell Wright #1 · F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mark Blount #15 · C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	56%	29	20	12	3	10	0	3	26	15-24	63%	29-59	49%	8-15	53%

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Dwyane Wade G · 6'4" 220 · 27	38.9	27	52%	4	10	3	0	2	3	0	4	7-11	64%	10-19	53%	0-2	0%
Mario Chalmers G · 6'2" 190 · 23	35.1	9	50%	3	5	4	0	3	3	0	3	2-2	100%	2-6	33%	1-2	50%
Jermaine O'Neal C · 6'11" 255 · 30	24.5	13	46%	6	0	1	1	2	3	2	4	1-4	25%	6-12	50%	0-0	-
Udonis Haslem F · 6'8" 235 · 29	22.4	2	33%	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2-2	100%	0-2	0%	0-0	-
Jamario Moon F · 6'8" 205 · 29	7.2	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%
Daequan Cook G · 6'5" 210 · 22	33.6	16	80%	7	0	0	0	0	1	1	6	2-2	100%	1-4	25%	4-5	80%
Michael Beasley F · 6'9" 235 · 20	27.2	14	78%	4	1	2	1	0	1	0	4	0-1	0%	7-9	78%	0-0	-
James Jones G-F · 6'8" 218 · 28	23.8	8	50%	1	2	1	1	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	2-4	50%
Jamaal Magloire C · 6'11" 265 · 31	19.2	3	50%	3	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Chris Quinn G · 6'2" 175 · 26	5.5	5	125%	0	2	0	0	1	2	0	0	0-0	-	1-1	100%	1-1	100%
Yakhouba Diawara F-G · 6'7" 225 · 27	2.7	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-0	-
Joel Anthony C · 6'9" 245 · 27
Luther Head #13 · G · 6'3" 185 · 26	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Dorell Wright #1 · F-G · 6'9" 205 · 23	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Mark Blount #15 · C-F · 7'0" 250 · 33	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	97	56%	29	20	12	3	10	0	3	26	15-24	63%	29-59	49%	8-15	53%

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13 Charlotte Bobcats

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Gerald Wallace F · 6'7" 220 · 27	45.1	21	75%	8	1	0	2	3	3	0	8	4-4	100%	7-10	70%	1-2	50%
Raymond Felton G · 6'1" 205 · 25	38.4	16	57%	4	10	2	0	3	3	0	4	1-1	100%	6-12	50%	1-2	50%
Boris Diaw F · 6'8" 250 · 27	38.4	13	59%	2	7	0	1	3	3	1	1	0-0	-	5-7	71%	1-4	25%
Emeka Okafor C · 6'10" 255 · 27	32.9	13	59%	13	0	0	1	1	5	3	10	1-3	33%	6-10	60%	0-0	-
Raja Bell G · 6'5" 210 · 33	20.0	11	61%	2	1	1	0	1	1	0	2	1-2	50%	2-4	50%	2-4	50%
D.J. Augustin G · 6'0" 183 · 21	24.0	9	64%	1	1	1	0	2	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	1-3	33%
Vladimir Radmanovic F · 6'10" 235 · 28	17.4	1	7%	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	2	1-2	50%	0-4	0%	0-2	0%
DeSagana Diop C · 7'0" 280 · 27	13.2	8	67%	7	2	0	0	2	1	4	3	0-0	-	4-6	67%	0-0	-
Cartier Martin F · 6'7" 220 · 24	10.6	0	0%	1	0	1	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	0-1	0%	0-1	0%
Juwan Howard F · 6'9" 250 · 36
Sean May C-F · 6'9" 266 · 25
Nazr Mohammed C · 6'10" 250 · 32
Dontell Jefferson #2 · G · 6'5" 195 · 25	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Alexis Ajinca #21 · C · 7'2" 248 · 21	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
Sean Singletary #44 · G · 6'0" 185 · 24	INACTIVE \| INACTIVE
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	92	55%	40	23	5	4	17	0	8	32	8-12	67%	33-58	57%	6-18	33%

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Predictions are shown with muted text (and below actual stats once the game is recorded).

indicates prediction hit.

Predictions may update within 20 minutes of the game starting given official updates about inactive players.

Predictions are made for players independently. This means total predicted player minutes and points may not align with the minutes available or the overall predicted game score. This prioritizes predicting individual boxscore stats.

Boxscore predictions are optimized for the immediate future, i.e. uncertainty increases further into the future, particularly with minutes predictions.

Boxscore predictions use estimates of player skill in each stat and at each point in time given a player's career up to that point, how quickly each stat stabalizes, and how important factors uniquely affect each stat. Read more about Skills here.

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg

BOXSCORE