Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Friday, April 3, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 15 | Heat | 43% | 90 | 97 |
 | 13 | Bobcats | 57% | 92 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 4 | Celtics | 70% | 96 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Mavericks | 68% | 100 | 102 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 26 | Thunder | 32% | 93 | 72 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 3 | Magic | 63% | 95 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Timberwolves | 19% | 94 | 103 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 58% | 104 | 103 | |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 2 | Lakers | 66% | 99 | 93 |
Thursday, April 2, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 24 | Bucks | 29% | 92 | 95 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 79% | 100 | 101 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Jazz | 41% | 99 | 104 |
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Wednesday, April 1, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Raptors | 22% | 92 | 99 |
| 3 | Magic | 78% | 102 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Bobcats | 27% | 86 | 109 |
| 5 | Celtics | 73% | 94 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Pistons | 43% | 93 | 98 |
| 22 | Nets | 57% | 95 | 111 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Wizards | 46% | 95 | 107 |
| 28 | Grizzlies | 54% | 96 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lakers | 66% | 102 | 104 |
| 24 | Bucks | 34% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 40% | 94 | 96 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 60% | 97 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Rockets | 47% | 99 | 109 |
| 12 | Suns | 53% | 100 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kings | 28% | 105 | 141 |
| 21 | Warriors | 72% | 113 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 64% | 98 | 104 | |
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 59% | 97 | 84 |
| 14 | Bobcats | 41% | 94 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pistons | 23% | 85 | 73 |
| 3 | Cavaliers | 77% | 95 | 79 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 17 | Bulls | 47% | 102 | 105 |
| 20 | Pacers | 53% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 45% | 94 | 85 |
| 16 | 76ers | 55% | 95 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 66% | 102 | 108 |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 34% | 96 | 88 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 18% | 86 | 96 |
| 5 | Spurs | 82% | 98 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 23 | Knicks | 19% | 98 | 104 |
| 7 | Nuggets | 81% | 110 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 38% | 96 | 104 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 100 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hornets | 67% | 99 | 111 | |
| 26 | Kings | 33% | 94 | 110 |
Monday, March 30, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 57% | 95 | 101 |
| 16 | Heat | 43% | 92 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 42% | 96 | 107 |
| 21 | Nets | 58% | 99 | 78 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 22% | 99 | 104 |
| 4 | Jazz | 78% | 109 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 31% | 99 | 114 |
| 22 | Warriors | 69% | 106 | 109 |
Sunday, March 29, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mavericks | 27% | 91 | 74 |
| 2 | Cavaliers | 73% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lakers | 58% | 100 | 76 |
| 13 | Hawks | 42% | 97 | 86 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nets | 57% | 100 | 99 | |
| 28 | Timberwolves | 43% | 98 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 43% | 99 | 129 |
| 20 | Raptors | 57% | 101 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 52% | 92 | 97 |
| 19 | Pistons | 48% | 91 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 16% | 87 | 84 |
| 3 | Celtics | 84% | 100 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wizards | 31% | 97 | 115 |
| 18 | Pacers | 69% | 104 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Spurs | 46% | 88 | 86 |
| 10 | Hornets | 54% | 89 | 90 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 58% | 107 | 118 |
| 26 | Kings | 42% | 105 | 126 |
Saturday, March 28, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Pacers | 38% | 100 | 106 |
| 17 | Bulls | 62% | 104 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Knicks | 29% | 95 | 85 |
| 16 | Bobcats | 71% | 102 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pistons | 55% | 95 | 98 |
| 25 | Wizards | 45% | 93 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 27% | 91 | 85 |
| 12 | Heat | 73% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 11% | 86 | 93 |
| 6 | Rockets | 89% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 29% | 102 | 116 |
| 8 | Nuggets | 71% | 109 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Suns | 30% | 101 | 99 |
| 5 | Jazz | 70% | 108 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 14% | 87 | 66 |
| 7 | Trail Blazers | 86% | 101 | 86 |
Friday, March 27, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bucks | 18% | 90 | 94 |
| 2 | Magic | 82% | 102 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 42% | 90 | 100 |
| 15 | 76ers | 58% | 93 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Thunder | 33% | 94 | 96 |
| 19 | Raptors | 67% | 100 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 57% | 94 | 99 |
| 12 | Hawks | 43% | 92 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 13% | 88 | 85 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 87% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 63% | 102 | 103 |
| 22 | Nets | 37% | 97 | 95 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Hornets | 59% | 100 | 93 | |
| 23 | Knicks | 41% | 97 | 103 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nuggets | 46% | 99 | 103 |
| 10 | Mavericks | 54% | 100 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Clippers | 15% | 87 | 98 |
| 6 | Spurs | 85% | 100 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 42% | 96 | 113 |
| 27 | Kings | 58% | 99 | 95 |
Thursday, March 26, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lakers | 62% | 97 | 92 |
| 21 | Pistons | 38% | 93 | 77 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Heat | 39% | 95 | 87 |
| 17 | Bulls | 61% | 99 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Suns | 31% | 99 | 109 |
| 9 | Trail Blazers | 69% | 105 | 129 |
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Spurs | 42% | 90 | 102 |
| 13 | Hawks | 58% | 93 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Nets | 16% | 87 | 87 | |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 84% | 100 | 98 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 46% | 98 | 88 |
| 19 | Pacers | 54% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 25% | 93 | 88 |
| 14 | 76ers | 75% | 101 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bucks | 42% | 96 | 106 |
| 20 | Raptors | 58% | 99 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bobcats | 66% | 96 | 93 |
| 30 | Wizards | 34% | 90 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Clippers | 36% | 102 | 140 |
| 23 | Knicks | 64% | 106 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 46% | 94 | 101 |
| 10 | Hornets | 54% | 95 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Celtics | 39% | 92 | 82 |
| 2 | Magic | 61% | 95 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 25% | 101 | 106 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 75% | 109 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Jazz | 46% | 104 | 114 |
| 12 | Suns | 54% | 105 | 118 |
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Pistons | 42% | 94 | 91 |
| 17 | Bulls | 58% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 73% | 103 | 107 |
| 25 | Thunder | 27% | 95 | 89 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 31% | 96 | 106 |
| 10 | Spurs | 69% | 103 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Rockets | 38% | 93 | 86 |
| 5 | Jazz | 62% | 97 | 99 |
Monday, March 23, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Timberwolves | 20% | 92 | 97 |
| 13 | Hawks | 80% | 103 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bulls | 65% | 101 | 101 |
| 30 | Wizards | 35% | 96 | 99 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Clippers | 12% | 88 | 77 |
| 4 | Celtics | 88% | 104 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Grizzlies | 24% | 89 | 82 |
| 12 | Heat | 76% | 98 | 94 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Magic | 69% | 105 | 106 |
| 23 | Knicks | 31% | 99 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nuggets | 51% | 105 | 115 |
| 14 | Suns | 49% | 104 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 76ers | 30% | 91 | 114 |
| 8 | Trail Blazers | 70% | 98 | 108 |
Sunday, March 22, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 47% | 91 | 101 |
| 21 | Pistons | 53% | 92 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Rockets | 44% | 88 | 87 |
| 11 | Spurs | 56% | 90 | 85 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Thunder | 45% | 97 | 97 |
| 26 | Timberwolves | 55% | 99 | 90 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Clippers | 38% | 98 | 76 |
| 20 | Raptors | 62% | 102 | 100 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavaliers | 70% | 97 | 96 |
| 25 | Nets | 30% | 90 | 88 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Warriors | 30% | 96 | 89 |
| 10 | Hornets | 70% | 103 | 99 | |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 76ers | 64% | 101 | 112 |
| 28 | Kings | 36% | 96 | 100 |
Saturday, March 21, 2009
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Hawks | 25% | 89 | 96 |
| 1 | Cavaliers | 75% | 97 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 35% | 94 | 108 |
| 13 | Bobcats | 65% | 99 | 83 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Knicks | 16% | 95 | 103 |
| 2 | Magic | 84% | 108 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Celtics | 76% | 97 | 105 |
| 29 | Grizzlies | 24% | 88 | 87 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lakers | 59% | 104 | 117 |
| 17 | Bulls | 41% | 101 | 109 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Trail Blazers | 58% | 97 | 96 |
| 23 | Bucks | 42% | 94 | 84 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Wizards | 16% | 96 | 96 |
| 12 | Suns | 84% | 109 | 128 |