Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Wednesday, November 8, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	14	Heat	52%	113	108	108.0	100	94.7
	21	Grizzlies	48%	112	102	103.0	99	104.8

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+13

-19

MEM

+18

-13

104

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.15 57.4%

MEM

0.98 49.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	36.4	30	65%	11	1	1	3	4	5	0	11	14-16	88%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	34.7	17	71%	11	9	1	0	4	4	3	8	3-3	100%	1-4	25%	4-7	57%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	34.6	15	54%	3	2	2	0	1	1	1	2	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.9	14	88%	2	1	1	3	0	2	2	0	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	2-4	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	8.2	6	60%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	0-0	-

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	35.1	9	56%	3	2	0	0	5	3	0	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	21.1	11	92%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	16.8	2	11%	0	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-5	0%
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	14.6	2	33%	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	11.6	2	33%	6	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinosis
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Non-covid Illness
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Head; Non-covid illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	57%	44	22	9	8	19	24	9	35	27-32	84%	24-49	49%	11-28	39%

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14 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	36.4	30	65%	11	1	1	3	4	5	0	11	14-16	88%	8-15	53%	0-0	-
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	34.7	17	71%	11	9	1	0	4	4	3	8	3-3	100%	1-4	25%	4-7	57%
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	34.6	15	54%	3	2	2	0	1	1	1	2	3-3	100%	3-9	33%	2-4	50%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · PF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.9	14	88%	2	1	1	3	0	2	2	0	2-2	100%	3-3	100%	2-4	50%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	8.2	6	60%	1	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	2-3	67%	2-4	50%	0-0	-

Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	35.1	9	56%	3	2	0	0	5	3	0	3	1-2	50%	1-2	50%	2-5	40%
Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	21.1	11	92%	3	2	2	0	0	5	0	3	2-3	67%	3-4	75%	1-1	100%
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	16.8	2	11%	0	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-5	0%
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	14.6	2	33%	4	1	1	1	0	0	2	2	0-0	-	1-1	100%	0-2	0%
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	11.6	2	33%	6	0	0	0	1	1	1	5	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	DNP – Coach's Decision
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Tendinosis
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Stomach; Non-covid Illness
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 20	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Head; Non-covid illness
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	108	57%	44	22	9	8	19	24	9	35	27-32	84%	24-49	49%	11-28	39%

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21 Memphis Grizzlies

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Desmond Bane #22 · SG · 6'6" 215 · 25	36.0	15	42%	5	3	1	2	1	3	0	5	5-6	83%	2-8	25%	2-8	25%
Jaren Jackson Jr. #13 · PF · 6'10" 242 · 24	33.0	28	64%	4	2	0	1	1	5	2	2	8-10	80%	7-10	70%	2-8	25%
Marcus Smart #36 · PG · 6'3" 220 · 30	32.1	11	34%	4	7	2	0	3	4	0	4	3-4	75%	4-11	36%	0-3	0%
Bismack Biyombo #18 · C · 6'8" 255 · 31	29.8	9	90%	10	0	1	0	1	4	6	4	1-2	50%	4-4	100%	0-0	-
Ziaire Williams #8 · SF · 6'9" 185 · 22	20.8	2	11%	2	0	2	0	1	2	1	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-5	0%

Luke Kennard #10 · SG · 6'5" 206 · 27	27.4	13	81%	2	3	1	0	3	1	0	2	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	3-6	50%
Santi Aldama #7 · PF · 7'0" 215 · 23	26.0	12	40%	8	0	2	1	1	4	2	6	0-2	0%	3-10	30%	2-4	50%
Jacob Gilyard #0 · PG · 5'9" 160 · 25	14.7	6	100%	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-3	67%
David Roddy #21 · PF · 6'5" 255 · 23	12.9	4	67%	3	0	1	0	2	2	2	1	2-2	100%	1-2	50%	0-0	-
Kenneth Lofton Jr. #6 · PF · 6'7" 275 · 21	7.1	2	33%	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0-0	-	1-3	33%	0-0	-
Vince Williams Jr. #5 · SG · 6'4" 205 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Jake LaRavia #3 · PF · 6'7" 235 · 22	DNP – Coach's Decision
GG Jackson #45 · PF · 6'9" 210 · 19	DNP – Coach's Decision
John Konchar #46 · SG · 6'5" 210 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Hip; Strain
Xavier Tillman #2 · PF · 6'8" 245 · 25	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Soreness
Brandon Clarke #15 · PF · 6'8" 215 · 27	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Achilles; Tendon Repair
Steven Adams #4 · C · 6'11" 265 · 30	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Knee; PCL Sprain
Derrick Rose #23 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 35	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Left Knee; Injury Recovery
Ja Morant #12 · PG · 6'2" 174 · 24	Inactive - League Suspension
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	102	49%	38	20	10	4	13	27	13	25	21-28	75%	24-53	45%	11-37	30%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	MEM
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	MEM

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.15 57.4%

MEM

0.98 49.0%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

61%

MEM

57%

Midrange

MIA

38%

MEM

32%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

16.5

39%

59%

MEM

16.5

30%

45%

Free Throws

MIA

84%

MEM

75%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	30	65%	15.0 / 23
K. Lowry	17	71%	8.5 / 12
J. Butler	15	54%	7.5 / 14
H. Highsmith	14	88%	7.0 / 8
J. Jaquez	11	92%	5.5 / 6
D. Robinson	9	56%	4.5 / 8
T. Herro	6	60%	3.0 / 5
J. Richardson	2	11%	1.0 / 9
D. Smith	2	33%	1.0 / 3
T. Bryant	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Grizzlies

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
J. Jackson	28	64%	14.0 / 22
D. Bane	15	42%	7.5 / 18
L. Kennard	13	81%	6.5 / 8
S. Aldama	12	40%	6.0 / 15
M. Smart	11	34%	5.5 / 16
B. Biyombo	9	90%	4.5 / 5
J. Gilyard	6	100%	3.0 / 3
D. Roddy	4	67%	2.0 / 3
Z. Williams	2	11%	1.0 / 9
K. Lofton Jr.	2	33%	1.0 / 3

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 30 106.8	MIA 108.0 +5.0 MEM 103.0
Pace	29 97.0 17 98.6	MIA 94.7 MEM 104.8 +10.1
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 11 14.8	MIA 15.2 MEM 13.7 −1.5
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 29 50.9%	MIA 52.6% +7.6% MEM 45.0%
TO %	9 12.2% 27 14.3%	MIA 17.3% MEM 12.0% −5.3%
ORB %	26 21.8% 19 23.8%	MIA 26.5% MEM 27.1% +0.6%
FTrt	8 25.7 18 23.8	MIA 41.6 +10.5 MEM 31.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 13 64.4%	MIA 62.9% +5.8% MEM 57.1%
STL %	11 7.7% 5 8.3%	MIA 9.0% MEM 10.1% +1.1%
BLK %	30 7.7% 1 11.9%	MIA 15.1% +6.9% MEM 8.2%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.39 and 2.39.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 29 52.9%	MIA 57.4% +8.4% MEM 49.0%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 30 57.8%	MIA 60.9% +3.8% MEM 57.1%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 26 40.3%	MIA 38.5% +6.5% MEM 32.0%
3P %	12 37.0% 29 34.6%	MIA 39.3% +9.6% MEM 29.7%
FT %	5 81.8% 23 76.4%	MIA 84.4% +9.4% MEM 75.0%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 21 32.3%	MIA 29.9% MEM 31.1% +1.2%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 4 24.9%	MIA 33.8% MEM 27.8% −6.0%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 5 42.8%	MIA 36.4% MEM 41.1% +4.7%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2.12 and 2.12.

Game Totals	MIA	MEM
Possessions	100	99
Possession Minutes	25.3	22.7
Points	108	102
Rebounds	44	38
Assists	22	20
Steals	9	10
Blocks	8	4
Turnovers (Team)	19 (0)	13 (1)
Fouls	24	27
Off. Rebounds (Team)	9 (4)	13 (5)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	35 (4)	25 (6)
Field Goals	35-77	35-90
At-the-Rim FG	14-23	16-28
Midrange FG	10-26	8-25
2-Point FG	24-49	24-53
3-Point FG	11-28	11-37
Free Throws	27-32	21-28
Fast Break Pts	13	23
2nd Chance Pts	13	12
Points in Paint	44	48
Pts off Turnovers	13	22
Bench Points	26	37
Biggest Lead	12	4

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg