Dunks & Threes: Pro Basketball Analysis

All Games Saturday, December 30, 2023

Final			W-Prob	pScore		ORTG	#Poss	Pace
	15	Heat	58%	116	109	105.8	103	113.3
	25	Jazz	42%	113	117	112.5	104	96.4

Scoring Opportunities

MIA

+11

-16

UTA

+13

-10

107

Base

ORB

TOV

Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.11 55.6%

UTA

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	38.6	25	52%	6	6	1	1	1	2	2	4	5-5	100%	7-15	47%	2-7	29%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	36.5	28	61%	16	3	3	3	4	1	3	13	14-20	70%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	22.9	8	80%	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	2	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	9.8	6	150%	2	1	0	0	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	8.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	35.1	9	41%	1	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	5-5	100%	2-5	40%	0-4	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	32.2	11	69%	4	4	2	2	1	4	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.2	4	33%	6	1	2	1	2	2	0	6	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	20.0	12	46%	6	2	0	0	1	1	2	4	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	2-8	25%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	10.6	6	75%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Discomfort
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Head; Contusion
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Acl; 3rd Degree Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	56%	46	20	8	6	16	24	8	38	32-40	80%	25-47	53%	9-31	29%

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15 Miami Heat

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Tyler Herro #14 · SG · 6'5" 205 · 24	38.6	25	52%	6	6	1	1	1	2	2	4	5-5	100%	7-15	47%	2-7	29%
Bam Adebayo #13 · C · 6'9" 260 · 26	36.5	28	61%	16	3	3	3	4	1	3	13	14-20	70%	7-13	54%	0-0	-
Jimmy Butler III #22 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 34	22.9	8	80%	2	1	0	1	2	2	0	2	4-4	100%	2-3	67%	0-0	-
Nikola Jović #5 · PF · 6'10" 240 · 21	9.8	6	150%	2	1	0	0	1	5	1	1	0-0	-	0-0	-	2-2	100%
R.J. Hampton #4 · PG · 6'4" 175 · 23	8.1	0	0%	2	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	0-0	-	0-0	-	0-1	0%

Jaime Jaquez Jr. #11 · SF · 6'6" 230 · 23	35.1	9	41%	1	1	0	0	2	4	0	1	5-5	100%	2-5	40%	0-4	0%
Duncan Robinson #55 · SF · 6'7" 215 · 30	32.2	11	69%	4	4	2	2	1	4	0	4	0-0	-	1-3	33%	3-5	60%
Haywood Highsmith #24 · SF · 6'5" 220 · 27	26.2	4	33%	6	1	2	1	2	2	0	6	2-2	100%	1-1	100%	0-4	0%
Kevin Love #42 · PF · 6'10" 251 · 35	20.0	12	46%	6	2	0	0	1	1	2	4	2-4	50%	2-3	67%	2-8	25%
Jamal Cain #8 · SF · 6'7" 191 · 25	10.6	6	75%	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0-0	-	3-4	75%	0-0	-
Thomas Bryant #31 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Josh Richardson #0 · SG · 6'6" 200 · 30	DND - Injury/Illness \| Low Back; Discomfort
Orlando Robinson #25 · C · 6'10" 235 · 23	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Cole Swider #21 · SF · 6'9" 220 · 25	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Caleb Martin #16 · SF · 6'5" 205 · 28	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Ankle; Sprain
Kyle Lowry #7 · PG · 6'0" 196 · 38	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Head; Contusion
Dru Smith #9 · SG · 6'2" 200 · 26	Inactive - Injury/Illness \| Right Acl; 3rd Degree Sprain
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	109	56%	46	20	8	6	16	24	8	38	32-40	80%	25-47	53%	9-31	29%

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25 Utah Jazz

PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
Simone Fontecchio #16 · SF · 6'7" 220 · 28	31.4	12	55%	7	2	2	1	0	4	3	4	3-6	50%	3-4	75%	1-5	20%
Lauri Markkanen #23 · PF · 7'1" 240 · 27	26.4	12	40%	5	1	2	0	0	4	2	3	3-4	75%	3-5	60%	1-8	13%
Collin Sexton #2 · PG · 6'3" 190 · 25	25.7	22	69%	2	5	1	0	3	1	1	1	5-6	83%	7-10	70%	1-4	25%
John Collins #20 · C · 6'9" 226 · 26	20.7	10	45%	6	0	0	0	1	3	0	6	0-0	-	2-5	40%	2-6	33%
Kris Dunn #11 · SG · 6'3" 205 · 30	17.6	2	20%	1	6	2	1	1	3	0	1	0-0	-	1-4	25%	0-1	0%

Keyonte George #3 · SG · 6'4" 185 · 20	27.6	21	88%	6	2	0	0	2	3	0	6	4-5	80%	1-2	50%	5-8	63%
Kelly Olynyk #41 · C · 7'0" 240 · 33	27.6	19	73%	6	10	1	1	3	5	3	3	3-3	100%	8-11	73%	0-1	0%
Jordan Clarkson #00 · SG · 6'5" 194 · 32	25.0	9	41%	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	2-2	100%	2-5	40%	1-5	20%
Walker Kessler #24 · C · 7'2" 245 · 22	23.1	10	100%	8	0	0	2	0	1	0	8	0-0	-	5-5	100%	0-0	-
Ochai Agbaji #30 · SG · 6'5" 215 · 24	14.8	0	0%	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0-2	0%	0-1	0%	0-3	0%
Talen Horton-Tucker #5 · SG · 6'4" 235 · 23	DNP – Coach's Decision
Ömer Yurtseven #77 · C · 6'11" 275 · 26	DNP – Coach's Decision
Luka Samanic #19 · PF · 6'11" 227 · 24	DNP – Coach's Decision
Taylor Hendricks #0 · PF · 6'9" 215 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Brice Sensabaugh #8 · SF · 6'6" 235 · 20	Inactive - G League - On Assignment
Micah Potter #25 · C · 6'9" 248 · 26	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Johnny Juzang #33 · SG · 6'7" 226 · 23	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
Josh Christopher #13 · SG · 6'4" 215 · 22	Inactive - G League - Two-Way
PLAYER	MIN	PTS	TS%	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TOV	PF	ORB	DRB	FT	FT%	2P	2P%	3P	3P%
TOTAL	240	117	55%	43	29	8	8	10	25	9	34	20-28	71%	32-52	62%	11-41	27%

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WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

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Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

			Score / W-Prob
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA
Clock	Team	Event	MIA	UTA

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SHOOTING

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Scoring Efficiency

MIA

1.11 55.6%

UTA

1.09 54.7%

Points per Opportunity/ True Shooting %

Scoring by Shot Type

At the Rim (within 5 feet)

MIA

47%

UTA

65%

Midrange

MIA

56%

UTA

57%

3PT | Effective 3PT

MIA

13.5

29%

44%

UTA

16.5

27%

40%

Free Throws

MIA

80%

UTA

71%

Makes

Effective 3P Makes

Efficiency

Misses

Bars scaled to point value.

Total Points

Heat

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
B. Adebayo	28	61%	14.0 / 23
T. Herro	25	52%	12.5 / 24
K. Love	12	46%	6.0 / 13
D. Robinson	11	69%	5.5 / 8
J. Jaquez	9	41%	4.5 / 11
J. Butler	8	80%	4.0 / 5
N. Jović	6	150%	3.0 / 2
J. Cain	6	75%	3.0 / 4
H. Highsmith	4	33%	2.0 / 6
R. Hampton	0	-	0.0 / 1

TS Makes

TS Misses

Total Points

Jazz

PLAYER	PTS	TS%	TSM / TSA
C. Sexton	22	69%	11.0 / 16
K. George	21	88%	10.5 / 12
K. Olynyk	19	73%	9.5 / 13
S. Fontecchio	12	55%	6.0 / 11
L. Markkanen	12	40%	6.0 / 15
J. Collins	10	45%	5.0 / 11
W. Kessler	10	100%	5.0 / 5
J. Clarkson	9	41%	4.5 / 11
K. Dunn	2	20%	1.0 / 5
O. Agbaji	0	-	0.0 / 5

TS Makes

TS Misses

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Efficiency & Pace		This Game
Efficiency	21 113.3 18 114.6	MIA 105.8 UTA 112.5 +6.7
Pace	29 97.0 9 100.5	MIA 113.3 +16.8 UTA 96.4
Avg. Poss. Time	10 14.8 16 14.6	MIA 12.7 −2.2 UTA 14.9
Four Factors		This Game
EFG %	20 53.8% 18 53.9%	MIA 49.4% UTA 52.2% +2.8%
TO %	9 12.2% 30 14.8%	MIA 14.3% UTA 8.7% −5.6%
ORB %	26 21.8% 2 28.1%	MIA 19.0% UTA 19.1% +0.1%
FTrt	8 25.7 11 25.1	MIA 51.3 +21.2 UTA 30.1
Misc. Stats		This Game
AST %	11 64.8% 10 64.8%	MIA 58.8% UTA 67.4% +8.6%
STL %	11 7.7% 29 6.5%	MIA 7.8% +0.1% UTA 7.7%
BLK %	30 7.7% 3 11.1%	MIA 11.5% UTA 17.0% +5.5%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Reg Season Avg		Game Stats
Shooting Efficiency		This Game
TS%	17 56.2% 15 56.5%	MIA 55.6% +0.9% UTA 54.7%
Rim FG%	23 61.6% 11 65.2%	MIA 46.7% UTA 64.5% +17.8%
Mid FG%	13 44.3% 20 41.3%	MIA 56.3% UTA 57.1% +0.8%
3P %	12 37.0% 22 35.4%	MIA 29.0% +2.2% UTA 26.8%
FT %	5 81.8% 1 83.0%	MIA 80.0% +8.6% UTA 71.4%
Shot Distribution		This Game
Rim Att. %	29 29.5% 20 32.6%	MIA 19.2% UTA 33.3% +14.1%
Mid Att. %	28 31.1% 15 26.8%	MIA 41.0% UTA 22.6% −18.4%
3P Att. %	14 39.4% 10 40.6%	MIA 39.7% UTA 44.1% +4.3%

Season averages charted by z-score with a range of -2 and 2.

Game Totals	MIA	UTA
Possessions	103	104
Possession Minutes	21.8	25.9
Points	109	117
Rebounds	46	43
Assists	20	29
Steals	8	8
Blocks	6	8
Turnovers (Team)	16 (0)	10 (0)
Fouls	24	25
Off. Rebounds (Team)	8 (3)	9 (4)
Def. Rebounds (Team)	38 (2)	34 (2)
Field Goals	34-78	43-93
At-the-Rim FG	7-15	20-31
Midrange FG	18-32	12-21
2-Point FG	25-47	32-52
3-Point FG	9-31	11-41
Free Throws	32-40	20-28
Fast Break Pts	10	8
2nd Chance Pts	7	11
Points in Paint	40	60
Pts off Turnovers	10	29
Bench Points	42	59
Biggest Lead	6	8

Scoring Opportunities

Scoring Efficiency

WIN PROBABILITY | PLAYS

Win Probability

Scoring Margin

Play-by-Play

SHOOTING

Scoring Efficiency

Scoring by Shot Type

Total Points

Total Points

MATCHUP

Reg Season Avg

Reg Season Avg