Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, December 30, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 13 | Heat | 58% | 116 | 109 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 18 | Raptors | 127 | ||
 | 30 | Pistons | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Knicks | 48% | 120 | 126 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 20 | Bulls | 105 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Lakers | 34% | 104 | 106 |
 | 6 | Timberwolves | 66% | 110 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 12 | Mavericks | 132 | ||
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Friday, December 29, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 55% | 110 | 108 |
 | 20 | Magic | 45% | 108 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 21 | Nets | 104 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Raptors | 118 | ||
 | 1 | Celtics | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 53% | 116 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 131 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 7 | Thunder | 48% | 113 | 119 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Hornets | 119 | ||
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23FFFFFF;}%20.st1{fill:%23C8102E;}%20.st2{fill:%231D428A;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%20id='Layer_2_1_'%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M42.4,200.4c0-86.9,70.4-157.3,157.3-157.3S357,113.5,357,200.4s-70.4,157.3-157.3,157.3%20S42.4,287.3,42.4,200.4'/%3e%3cpath%20d='M199.8,56.1c-79.6,0-144.3,64.7-144.3,144.3s64.7,144.3,144.3,144.3S344.1,280,344.1,200.4%20C344.1,120.9,279.3,56.1,199.8,56.1%20M304.1,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.2,73.9h-54.4C278.2,167.2,287.6,141.7,304.1,120.3%20M95.5,120.3c16.5,21.4,25.9,47,27.3,73.9H68.2C69.6,167.1,78.9,141.7,95.5,120.3%20M95.5,280.6c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.2-73.9h54.4%20C121.4,233.7,112,259.2,95.5,280.6%20M206.1,332v-37.7h-12.7V332c-34.3-1.6-66-16.3-89.6-41.4c19.3-24.1,30.1-53,31.4-83.7v-12.7%20c-1.3-30.7-12.2-59.6-31.4-83.7c23.6-25.1,55.3-39.8,89.6-41.4v37.4h12.7V68.9c34.3,1.6,66,16.3,89.6,41.4%20c-19.3,24.1-30.1,53-31.4,83.7v12.7c1.3,30.7,12.2,59.6,31.4,83.7C272.1,315.6,240.3,330.3,206.1,332%20M304.1,280.6%20c-16.5-21.4-25.9-47-27.3-73.9h54.4C329.9,233.7,320.6,259.2,304.1,280.6'/%3e%3cpolygon%20class='st1'%20points='167.6,140%20167.6,260.4%20232,260.4%20232,243.9%20184.8,243.9%20184.8,140%20'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st2'%20d='M253.8,180.3v-49.6c0-7.5-3-10.5-10.3-10.5h-87.6c-7.2,0-10.2,3.1-10.2,10.5v139.4c0,7.5,3,10.5,10.2,10.5%20h87.6c7.3,0,10.3-3.1,10.3-10.5v-49.7h-17.4v44.9H163V135.5h73.5v44.8L253.8,180.3L253.8,180.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M232,239.2V140h-41.9l-0.4,99.2h16.7l0.3-30.9h8.5l-0.1,30.9H232z%20M215.1,191.7h-8.4v-35.2h8.4V191.7z'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 11 | Clippers | 117 | ||
Thursday, December 28, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 7% | 102 | 122 |
| 1 | Celtics | 93% | 124 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 120 | ||
| 19 | Bulls | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 22% | 103 | 110 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 78% | 114 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 105 | ||
 | 17 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Grizzlies | 30% | 105 | 105 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 70% | 113 | 142 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Heat | 114 | ||
| 5 | Warriors | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 33% | 111 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 67% | 117 | 105 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 112 | ||
| 13 | Lakers | 133 | ||
Wednesday, December 27, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 54% | 110 | 112 |
| 20 | Magic | 46% | 109 | 92 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Raptors | 132 | ||
| 27 | Wizards | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bucks | 71% | 119 | 144 |
| 19 | Nets | 29% | 111 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 129 | ||
| 22 | Rockets | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 46% | 112 | 120 |
| 7 | Thunder | 54% | 113 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 113 | ||
| 10 | Mavericks | 110 | ||
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 118 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
| 27 | Wizards | 36% | 111 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 41% | 115 | 123 |
| 21 | Rockets | 59% | 118 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Grizzlies | 116 | ||
| 18 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
| 7 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 130 | ||
| 29 | Spurs | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kings | 61% | 117 | 113 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 39% | 113 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 12 | Clippers | 113 | ||
Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 49% | 116 | 122 |
| 9 | Knicks | 51% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 114 | ||
| 4 | Nuggets | 120 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 126 |
| 12 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 113 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
| 10 | Suns | 56% | 117 | 114 |
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| 8 | Knicks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| 28 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 24 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 15 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
| 23 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Cavaliers | 109 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
| 7 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 119 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 98 | ||
Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| 2 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 19 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 22 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 118 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 46% | 119 | 105 |
| 18 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |
Thursday, December 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 119 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 39% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 95 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 42% | 116 | 103 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 58% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 114 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 109 | 115 |
| 8 | Thunder | 66% | 115 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 111 | ||
| 4 | Timberwolves | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 117 | 117 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 116 | ||
| 8 | Cavaliers | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 28% | 115 | 113 |
| 24 | Pacers | 72% | 124 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 115 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 39% | 109 | 113 |
| 2 | 76ers | 61% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 121 | ||
| 18 | Nets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 58% | 112 | 113 |
| 23 | Raptors | 42% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 108 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 134 |
| 21 | Rockets | 53% | 115 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 120 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 54% | 115 | 144 |
| 14 | Kings | 46% | 113 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| 14 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 20% | 114 | 119 |
| 5 | Bucks | 80% | 126 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 126 | ||
| 8 | Warriors | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 65% | 116 | 104 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 110 | 109 |
Monday, December 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 38% | 103 | 130 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 62% | 108 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 151 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 22% | 105 | 108 |
| 2 | 76ers | 78% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 124 | ||
| 14 | Hawks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 110 | 112 |
| 16 | Heat | 44% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| 21 | Raptors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 27% | 105 | 97 |
| 6 | Thunder | 73% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 66% | 116 | 108 |
| 27 | Jazz | 34% | 110 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 131 | ||
| 13 | Kings | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 52% | 111 | 114 |
| 18 | Lakers | 48% | 110 | 109 |
Sunday, December 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 97 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 68% | 120 | 146 |
| 27 | Spurs | 32% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 119 | ||
| 9 | Bucks | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 21% | 113 | 108 |
| 7 | Suns | 79% | 125 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 118 | ||
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 114 | ||