Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 19 | Nets | 118 | ||
 | 30 | Pistons | 112 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 20 | Magic | 64% | 116 | 127 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 22 | Bulls | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 18 | Pelicans | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 49% | 109 | 106 |
 | 7 | Thunder | 51% | 110 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 28 | Hornets | 104 | ||
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Monday, December 25, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 49% | 116 | 122 |
 | 9 | Knicks | 51% | 117 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 63% | 112 | 126 |
 | 12 | Lakers | 37% | 107 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 13 | Heat | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Mavericks | 44% | 115 | 128 |
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Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bucks | 130 | ||
| 8 | Knicks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 102 | ||
| 28 | Hornets | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
| 24 | Pacers | 49% | 118 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 106 | ||
| 17 | Pelicans | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Grizzlies | 41% | 113 | 125 |
| 15 | Hawks | 59% | 117 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 115 | ||
| 19 | Nets | 126 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 37% | 110 | 126 |
 | 23 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
%20--%3e%3csvg%20version='1.1'%20id='Layer_1'%20xmlns='http://www.w3.org/2000/svg'%20xmlns:xlink='http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink'%20x='0px'%20y='0px'%20viewBox='0%200%20400%20400'%20style='enable-background:new%200%200%20400%20400;'%20xml:space='preserve'%3e%3cstyle%20type='text/css'%3e%20.st0{fill:%23BC945C;}%20.st1{fill:%23860038;}%20%3c/style%3e%3cg%3e%3cpath%20class='st0'%20d='M356.2,121.3V98.4l-5.6-5.7c-72-68.5-226.2,21.4-278.6,64.8l-25.9,40.1l32.2-8c-49.4,62-31.8,102.7-29.7,106.9%20c5.2,14.6,17.1,26.3,36.3,34c14.6,5.8,31.2,6.6,45.4,5.9c61.4-2.9,134-41.2,180.9-81.9l1.1-0.9l9.3-47.1l-18.2,10.1%20c-63.3,27.8-114.2,43.2-114.2,43.2c-33.3,10.4-48.6,12.1-59.5,9.5l-1.3-0.4c-3-1.2-3.5-3.9-3.5-4.6c-0.5-20.8,35.4-65.6,53.4-85%20c16.8-18.1,43.3-37.9,65.7-47.3c15-6.3,24.7-8.8,29.2-8.4c-1.2,3.9-3.3,8.7-6.2,14.5c0,0-24,47.3-25,49.2L356.2,121.3z'/%3e%3cpath%20class='st1'%20d='M213.9,118c-20.6,10.9-44.3,32.8-51.7,40.7C101.8,223,59.5,309,191.7,267.8c0,0,51.4-15.6,115.2-43.6%20C126.3,376.8-44.2,313,123.6,152.5c-15.3,3.5-30.7,6.8-45.8,11c53.7-44.5,201.1-127.4,266.9-64.8l-70.3,43.1%20C304.6,82.7,250.2,96.6,213.9,118'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e) | 9 | Cavaliers | 109 | ||
| 21 | Bulls | 95 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
| 7 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 119 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 144 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 28% | 107 | 106 |
| 6 | Warriors | 72% | 116 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 110 | ||
| 16 | Kings | 98 | ||
Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Raptors | 111 | ||
| 2 | 76ers | 121 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 19 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 113 | ||
| 14 | Heat | 122 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 22 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 118 | ||
| 6 | Warriors | 129 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 46% | 119 | 105 |
| 18 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |
Thursday, December 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 119 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 9 | Cavaliers | 39% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 95 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 42% | 116 | 103 |
| 14 | Grizzlies | 58% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 114 | ||
| 5 | Bucks | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 34% | 109 | 115 |
| 8 | Thunder | 66% | 115 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 111 | ||
| 4 | Timberwolves | 118 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 117 | 117 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 116 | ||
| 8 | Cavaliers | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 28% | 115 | 113 |
| 24 | Pacers | 72% | 124 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Heat | 115 | ||
| 20 | Magic | 106 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 39% | 109 | 113 |
| 2 | 76ers | 61% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Knicks | 121 | ||
| 18 | Nets | 102 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 58% | 112 | 113 |
| 23 | Raptors | 42% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 108 | ||
| 22 | Bulls | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 134 |
| 21 | Rockets | 53% | 115 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 120 | ||
| 12 | Mavericks | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 54% | 115 | 144 |
| 14 | Kings | 46% | 113 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Grizzlies | 115 | ||
| 14 | Pelicans | 113 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Spurs | 20% | 114 | 119 |
| 5 | Bucks | 80% | 126 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 126 | ||
| 8 | Warriors | 132 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Suns | 65% | 116 | 104 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 110 | 109 |
Monday, December 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 38% | 103 | 130 |
| 8 | Cavaliers | 62% | 108 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Clippers | 151 | ||
| 23 | Pacers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 22% | 105 | 108 |
| 2 | 76ers | 78% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 124 | ||
| 14 | Hawks | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 110 | 112 |
| 16 | Heat | 44% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 99 | ||
| 21 | Raptors | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Grizzlies | 27% | 105 | 97 |
| 6 | Thunder | 73% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 104 | ||
| 3 | Nuggets | 130 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Nets | 66% | 116 | 108 |
| 27 | Jazz | 34% | 110 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Wizards | 131 | ||
| 13 | Kings | 143 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 52% | 111 | 114 |
| 18 | Lakers | 48% | 110 | 109 |
Sunday, December 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 97 | ||
| 1 | Celtics | 114 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pelicans | 68% | 120 | 146 |
| 27 | Spurs | 32% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rockets | 119 | ||
| 9 | Bucks | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Wizards | 21% | 113 | 108 |
| 7 | Suns | 79% | 125 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Warriors | 118 | ||
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 114 | ||
Saturday, December 16, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 114 | ||
| 4 | Bucks | 146 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 78% | 119 | 135 |
| 26 | Hornets | 22% | 108 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Hawks | 119 | ||
| 9 | Cavaliers | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 40% | 108 | 116 |
| 14 | Heat | 60% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 109 | ||
| 3 | Timberwolves | 127 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Nets | 38% | 110 | 120 |
| 8 | Warriors | 62% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Thunder | 118 | ||
| 5 | Nuggets | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Mavericks | 64% | 116 | 131 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 104 | ||
| 17 | Kings | 125 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 40% | 109 | 122 |
| 12 | Clippers | 60% | 112 | 144 |
Friday, December 15, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Pelicans | 112 | ||
| 26 | Hornets | 107 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 13% | 107 | 92 |
| 2 | 76ers | 87% | 123 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 123 | ||
| 29 | Wizards | 137 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Magic | 23% | 104 | 111 |
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 114 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Hawks | 125 | ||
| 21 | Raptors | 104 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 67% | 116 | 115 |
| 28 | Spurs | 33% | 109 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Rockets | 103 | ||
| 16 | Grizzlies | 96 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Knicks | 41% | 111 | 139 |
| 5 | Suns | 59% | 115 | 122 |
Thursday, December 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 25% | 104 | 107 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Bulls | 124 | ||
| 15 | Heat | 116 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Timberwolves | 48% | 112 | 119 |
| 9 | Mavericks | 52% | 113 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nets | 101 | ||
| 5 | Nuggets | 124 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Jazz | 32% | 106 | 122 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 123 | ||
| 20 | Kings | 128 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Warriors | 51% | 112 | 113 |
| 12 | Clippers | 49% | 111 | 121 |
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 76ers | 129 | ||
| 30 | Pistons | 111 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 69% | 121 | 142 |
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Hornets | 104 | ||
| 13 | Heat | 115 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hawks | 48% | 116 | 128 |
| 21 | Raptors | 52% | 117 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Grizzlies | 104 | ||
| 22 | Rockets | 117 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Pacers | 33% | 122 | 126 |
| 4 | Bucks | 67% | 129 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Lakers | 122 | ||
| 28 | Spurs | 119 | ||
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nets | 41% | 112 | 116 |
| 3 | Suns | 59% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Knicks | 113 | ||
| 27 | Jazz | 117 | ||