Win probabilities use a game-optimized version of EPM
for which each underlying stat considers
opponent strength and game context (home-court, rest, if playoff game).
Check the game detail page to see boxscore predictions and player minutes used.
There is more uncertainty for predictions before the season starts and further in the future.
Saturday, December 23, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 5 | Bucks | 46% | 115 | 130 |
 | 7 | Knicks | 54% | 117 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 1 | Celtics | 66% | 114 | 145 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 29 | Hornets | 21% | 106 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 14 | Magic | 51% | 119 | 117 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 8 | Pelicans | 68% | 114 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30 | Pistons | 22% | 108 | 115 |
 | 11 | Nets | 78% | 119 | 126 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 15 | Raptors | 63% | 115 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 19 | Bulls | 57% | 107 | 95 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 10 | Lakers | 37% | 109 | 129 |
 | 3 | Thunder | 63% | 114 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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 | 21 | Mavericks | 66% | 120 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 4 | Timberwolves | 58% | 114 | 110 |
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Friday, December 22, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Raptors | 27% | 108 | 111 |
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| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 58% | 114 | 122 |
| 13 | Nets | 42% | 111 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Hawks | 52% | 118 | 113 |
 | 18 | Heat | 48% | 117 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Mavericks | 38% | 109 | 96 |
| 20 | Rockets | 62% | 113 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 6 | Warriors | 83% | 126 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| 14 | Kings | 54% | 120 | 120 |
Thursday, December 21, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Jazz | 48% | 115 | 119 |
| 30 | Pistons | 52% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelicans | 61% | 113 | 123 |
| 23 | Cavaliers | 39% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 36% | 108 | 95 |
| 18 | Bulls | 64% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Pacers | 42% | 116 | 103 |
| 20 | Grizzlies | 58% | 119 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Magic | 31% | 111 | 114 |
| 6 | Bucks | 69% | 118 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Clippers | 34% | 109 | 115 |
| 8 | Thunder | 66% | 115 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Lakers | 29% | 103 | 111 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 71% | 111 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 38% | 113 | 118 |
| 24 | Trail Blazers | 62% | 117 | 117 |
Wednesday, December 20, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Jazz | 38% | 107 | 116 |
| 24 | Cavaliers | 62% | 112 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Hornets | 28% | 115 | 113 |
| 23 | Pacers | 72% | 124 | 144 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Heat | 39% | 105 | 115 |
| 14 | Magic | 61% | 109 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Timberwolves | 39% | 109 | 113 |
| 2 | 76ers | 61% | 113 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Knicks | 51% | 113 | 121 |
| 13 | Nets | 49% | 112 | 102 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 58% | 112 | 113 |
| 18 | Raptors | 42% | 110 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Lakers | 53% | 108 | 108 |
| 21 | Bulls | 47% | 107 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Hawks | 47% | 114 | 134 |
| 19 | Rockets | 53% | 115 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Clippers | 49% | 115 | 120 |
| 16 | Mavericks | 51% | 116 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 54% | 115 | 144 |
| 10 | Kings | 46% | 113 | 119 |
Tuesday, December 19, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 27% | 106 | 115 |
| 9 | Pelicans | 73% | 115 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Spurs | 20% | 114 | 119 |
| 8 | Bucks | 80% | 126 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtics | 57% | 112 | 126 |
| 5 | Warriors | 43% | 110 | 132 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Suns | 65% | 116 | 104 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 35% | 110 | 109 |
Monday, December 18, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 38% | 103 | 130 |
| 16 | Cavaliers | 62% | 108 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Clippers | 55% | 121 | 151 |
| 22 | Pacers | 45% | 119 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 22% | 105 | 108 |
| 2 | 76ers | 78% | 116 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pistons | 20% | 113 | 124 |
| 18 | Hawks | 80% | 126 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Timberwolves | 56% | 110 | 112 |
| 17 | Heat | 44% | 108 | 108 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Hornets | 20% | 103 | 99 |
| 19 | Raptors | 80% | 116 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Grizzlies | 27% | 105 | 97 |
| 5 | Thunder | 73% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Mavericks | 35% | 113 | 104 |
| 3 | Nuggets | 65% | 118 | 130 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nets | 66% | 116 | 108 |
| 26 | Jazz | 34% | 110 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Wizards | 23% | 115 | 131 |
| 12 | Kings | 77% | 126 | 143 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Knicks | 52% | 111 | 114 |
| 21 | Lakers | 48% | 110 | 109 |
Sunday, December 17, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Magic | 25% | 103 | 97 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Pelicans | 68% | 120 | 146 |
| 27 | Spurs | 32% | 113 | 110 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Rockets | 44% | 110 | 119 |
| 10 | Bucks | 56% | 113 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 21% | 113 | 108 |
| 9 | Suns | 79% | 125 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Warriors | 68% | 115 | 118 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 32% | 108 | 114 |
Saturday, December 16, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 10% | 108 | 114 |
| 2 | Bucks | 90% | 127 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 76ers | 78% | 119 | 135 |
| 29 | Hornets | 22% | 108 | 82 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Hawks | 40% | 114 | 119 |
| 13 | Cavaliers | 60% | 117 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Bulls | 40% | 108 | 116 |
| 19 | Heat | 60% | 112 | 118 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Pacers | 23% | 109 | 109 |
| 4 | Timberwolves | 77% | 120 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nets | 38% | 110 | 120 |
| 6 | Warriors | 62% | 115 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Thunder | 42% | 112 | 118 |
| 5 | Nuggets | 58% | 115 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 64% | 116 | 131 |
| 26 | Trail Blazers | 36% | 110 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Jazz | 36% | 113 | 104 |
| 21 | Kings | 64% | 118 | 125 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 40% | 109 | 122 |
| 8 | Clippers | 60% | 112 | 144 |
Friday, December 15, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Pelicans | 72% | 119 | 112 |
| 29 | Hornets | 28% | 111 | 107 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | Pistons | 13% | 107 | 92 |
| 2 | 76ers | 87% | 123 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 67% | 128 | 123 |
| 28 | Wizards | 33% | 122 | 137 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Magic | 23% | 104 | 111 |
| 1 | Celtics | 77% | 114 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Hawks | 48% | 117 | 125 |
| 17 | Raptors | 52% | 118 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Lakers | 67% | 116 | 115 |
| 27 | Spurs | 33% | 109 | 129 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Rockets | 58% | 107 | 103 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 42% | 104 | 96 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Knicks | 41% | 111 | 139 |
| 6 | Suns | 59% | 115 | 122 |
Thursday, December 14, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cavaliers | 25% | 104 | 107 |
| 1 | Celtics | 75% | 114 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 37% | 106 | 124 |
| 14 | Heat | 63% | 111 | 116 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Timberwolves | 48% | 112 | 119 |
| 13 | Mavericks | 52% | 113 | 101 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nets | 33% | 110 | 101 |
| 4 | Nuggets | 67% | 116 | 124 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 32% | 106 | 122 |
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 68% | 113 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Thunder | 51% | 117 | 123 |
| 22 | Kings | 49% | 116 | 128 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 51% | 112 | 113 |
| 16 | Clippers | 49% | 111 | 121 |
Wednesday, December 13, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 76ers | 82% | 121 | 129 |
| 30 | Pistons | 18% | 108 | 111 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Pelicans | 69% | 121 | 142 |
| 29 | Wizards | 31% | 114 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Hornets | 22% | 107 | 104 |
| 7 | Heat | 78% | 119 | 115 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Hawks | 48% | 116 | 128 |
| 19 | Raptors | 52% | 117 | 135 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Grizzlies | 31% | 99 | 104 |
| 21 | Rockets | 69% | 107 | 117 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Pacers | 33% | 122 | 126 |
| 2 | Bucks | 67% | 129 | 140 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Lakers | 63% | 115 | 122 |
| 27 | Spurs | 37% | 110 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Nets | 41% | 112 | 116 |
| 3 | Suns | 59% | 116 | 112 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Knicks | 68% | 117 | 113 |
| 26 | Jazz | 32% | 110 | 117 |
Tuesday, December 12, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Cavaliers | 20% | 102 | 113 |
| 1 | Celtics | 80% | 115 | 120 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Lakers | 53% | 113 | 125 |
| 20 | Mavericks | 47% | 112 | 127 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Nuggets | 62% | 111 | 114 |
| 23 | Bulls | 38% | 106 | 106 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Warriors | 49% | 113 | 116 |
| 12 | Suns | 51% | 114 | 119 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kings | 36% | 113 | 99 |
| 3 | Clippers | 64% | 118 | 119 |
Monday, December 11, 2023
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Heat | 67% | 117 | 116 |
| 27 | Hornets | 33% | 110 | 114 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Pacers | 73% | 127 | 131 |
| 30 | Pistons | 27% | 118 | 123 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Cavaliers | 51% | 110 | 94 |
| 22 | Magic | 49% | 109 | 104 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | Wizards | 18% | 111 | 101 |
| 4 | 76ers | 82% | 125 | 146 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nuggets | 53% | 119 | 129 |
| 14 | Hawks | 47% | 118 | 122 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Raptors | 36% | 107 | 130 |
| 7 | Knicks | 64% | 112 | 136 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 | Spurs | 30% | 107 | 82 |
| 21 | Rockets | 70% | 115 | 93 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Mavericks | 59% | 111 | 120 |
| 24 | Grizzlies | 41% | 108 | 113 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Bulls | 26% | 109 | 129 |
| 2 | Bucks | 74% | 118 | 133 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Timberwolves | 48% | 110 | 107 |
| 17 | Pelicans | 52% | 111 | 121 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Jazz | 17% | 107 | 120 |
| 5 | Thunder | 83% | 121 | 134 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nets | 47% | 116 | 118 |
| 16 | Kings | 53% | 117 | 131 |
| Final | Win Prob. | pScore | Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Trail Blazers | 22% | 102 | 127 |
| 6 | Clippers | 78% | 113 | 132 |